Jim Harbaugh COLUMBUS, OH – NOVEMBER 26: Head coach Jim Harbaugh of the Michigan Wolverines argues a call on the sideline during the second half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium on November 26, 2016 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

Why Michigan deserves a Playoff spot over Wisconsin and Penn State

Penn State and Wisconsin will play for the Big Ten Championship this week, but the consensus is that the two best teams in the conference won’t be playing for the conference title. Penn State won the tiebreaker against the Buckeyes and Wolverines to represent the Big Ten East, but nearly every available metric shows that the Nittany Lions, while a very good team, are not quite as good as OSU and Michigan. The same goes for Wisconsin.

Team S&P+ F/+ FEI
Michigan 2 2 3
Ohio State 3 3 2
Wisconsin 10 7 7
Penn State 11 10 13

“Oh, but you just cherry-picked!” says the Penn State fan. Need more? Okay.

Team Sagarin Massey FPI
Michigan 3 5 3
Ohio State 2 2 2
Wisconsin 7 6 12
Penn State 14 9 14

“But what about the eye test!” yells the Wisconsin fan. “What about what happened on the field!”

Michigan and Ohio State went a combined 3-1 against the Badgers and Nittany Lions. The one loss was Ohio State’s loss to Penn State. However, the Buckeyes are almost certainly in the College Football Playoff at this point, with one loss overall and three top 10 wins. The rest of the Playoff field is actually fairly set, too, as long as Washington beats Colorado and Clemson beats Virginia Tech.

But neither of those results is set in stone, and it’s likely that a second Big Ten team would be the next team in. The common view is that the Big Ten Champion will get in, but strip away that arbitrary title, which depends largely on who you play and where you play them, and it’s clear that Michigan is actually the best team of the three. Here’s why:

  • Every single one of the advanced metrics
  • Beating both Wisconsin and Penn State on the field, the latter 49-10 (!!!)
  • Playing AT Ohio State and nearly coming out on top. Home field advantage has been proven to matter.
  • Finishing 3-1 against top 10 teams. Penn State is 1-1. Wisconsin is 0-2.

There is just no objective way to say that either Penn State or Wisconsin is a better team than Michigan, and the Wolverines shouldn’t be punished for 1) Not playing in the Big Ten West, and 2) Playing a much tougher than Penn State.

The College Football Playoff made very clear that it was going to choose the best available teams. There’s an argument that this isn’t the best way to choose teams — without advanced metrics, it can introduce bias — but that’s the system we have. Even knowing the criteria, it’s unlikely the committee will jump the Wolverines over a one-loss conference championship. But when it comes to the Big Ten title game champions, Michigan has settled both through results and cumulative level of play on the field that it’s deserving of a Playoff spot should one come available.

How the SEC let the Big Ten catch up

The SEC has spent the better part of a decade as the best conference in College Football, but just five years after having two teams in the national title game, the SEC is far behind its nemesis, the Big Ten.

The Big Ten has a lower bottom tier (hey, Rutgers and Purdue), but the top of the Big Ten is far more competitive than the top of the SEC, and it’s why there are currently four Big Ten teams in contention for the College Football Playoff — with the realistic possibility of being the first conference to get two teams in — while, as long as Alabama beats Florida in the SEC title game, no SEC team will finish with fewer than four losses.

We compared the conferences side-by-side last week, but after a week of nightmare-ish performances in the SEC, the end-of-regular-season comparison between the two conferences is even more stark. Look at the top five teams in each conference compared by F/+ rating.

Conference Rank Big Ten F/+ SEC F/+ SEC – Big Ten
1 Michigan 2 Alabama 1 -1
2 Ohio State 3 LSU 6 3
3 Wisconsin 7 Auburn 9 2
4 Penn State 10 Florida 24 14
5 Iowa 21 Texas A&M 25 4

The biggest reason for the shift? Coaching. The SEC still has a major advantage in recruiting, given its geography, but the conference seems to have gotten complacent in its hires. While the SEC hired Nick Saban proteges and otherwise underwhelming coaches — Kirby Smart? Jim McElwain? Butch Jones? — the Big Ten hired masterful recruiters Urban Meyer, Jim Harbaugh and James Franklin. Those coaches also hired star assistants, with Ohio State being the launching pad for Tom Herman and Chris Ash and Michigan for D.J. Durkin. Franklin, who has struggled to live up to expectations in the past, hired star offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead, who transformed the Nittany Lions into a Playoff contender.

Even the teams that don’t recruit as well — Iowa and Wisconsin — have succeeded with player development. They are a combined 41-10 the past two years, with (likely) a New Year’s Six bowl apiece.

Big Ten teams have made wholesale investments in getting better. The SEC has suddenly become fixated on hiring Nick Saban proteges, who, unsurprisingly, aren’t as good at coaching as Saban. This turn of events was unlikely half a decade ago, but as long as the SEC keeps making underwhelming hires, it’s not going to be able to claim superiority over the Big Ten any time soon.

Who Playoff contenders should be cheering for

Is your team in contention to make the Playoff this year? Here’s what needs to happen this upcoming weekend for you to have a chance:

Alabama: No injuries. The Crimson Tide are in, win-or-lose against Florida

Ohio State: The Buckeyes are almost certainly in, but it would help if nobody else looked great in their conference title game.

Washington: Just win, baby.

Clemson: Ditto.

Wisconsin and Penn State: Win the Big Ten, then cheer for Colorado over Washington and Virginia Tech over Clemson.

Michigan: Cheer for Colorado over Washington and Virginia Tech over Clemson, and hope nobody looks great in the Big Ten title game.

Oklahoma: Win Bedlam by 50, then hope both Washington and Clemson lose.

Colorado: Blowout Washington, then hope Oklahoma and Clemson lose.

Anybody else: Ain’t gonna happen.

About Kevin Trahan

Kevin mostly covers college football and college basketball, with an emphasis on NCAA issues and other legal issues in sports. He is also an incoming law student. He's written for SB Nation, USA Today, VICE Sports, The Guardian and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He is a graduate of Northwestern University.