Ed Orgeron BATON ROUGE, LA – OCTOBER 22: Head coach Ed Orgeron of the LSU Tigers calls a timeout during the second half of a game against the Mississippi Rebels at Tiger Stadium on October 22, 2016 in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

The LSU football program is coming off a tumultuous year and a half or so. Administrators were going to fire head coach Les Miles at the end of 2015. Then they chickened out during the final game. Eventually, they fired him four games into the 2016 season. Miles was replaced with Ed Orgeron on a temporary basis. LSU then made an open pass at Tom Herman that was rebuffed. So they stuck with Coach O.

Hiring Orgeron was more about the floor than the ceiling. Few among the reasonable are expecting Coach O to be the dynamic mastermind that wrests the SEC West from Nick Saban. Hiring him was more about continuity and keeping standout defensive coordinator Dave Aranda on board. He’s popular with recruits, fans, and the media. Considering the abysmal track record of major programs moving on from storied coaches, it was not the worst idea.

How solid is that floor, though?

Orgeron has been a SEC head coach before. He spent three years at Ole Miss from 2005 to 2007. It didn’t go well for him, beyond recruiting. He picked fights. He produced some epic YouTube material. He compiled a 3-21 record in conference. That was nearly a decade ago. He “learned from his mistakes,” of course. He fared better in interim roles at USC and LSU. Still, his Ole Miss tenure is a significant data point. It’s the last time he faced this sort of pressure.

Coach O did close the last regular season 5-2 after Miles’ departure. He did open up the offense a bit (which isn’t saying much). The Tigers overran a reeling Louisville and finished the season in the Top 15. All was well, right? Look closer.

LSU recovered… in a three-game stretch against Missouri, Southern Miss, and Ole Miss. They split the final four games. Against the two teams that could play defense, Alabama and Florida, LSU scored 10 points combined in losses, at home. Okay, not great.

That precise recovery would have been conceivable if Miles stayed. It also would have underwhelmed and the 7-4 finish to the regular season, with losses to the four best teams and continued suboptimal quarterback play, probably would have gotten him fired.

Tiger fans will hope Coach O has everything screwed down tight. Because, if Orgeron doesn’t, things could get ugly after September. LSU’s 2017 schedule, with some help from the Florida venue flip, is brutal. Playing in the SEC West is bad enough. Their cross-division draw is road games at Florida and Tennessee.

After Oct. 1, LSU plays a three-game slate of at Florida, Auburn, at Ole Miss. November after the bye week only gets harder. LSU travels to Alabama, then has Arkansas, at Tennessee, and Texas A&M. Replicating last year’s 5-3 mark in the conference would be a major feat.

LSU doesn’t have a marquee opponent non-conference. Though writing that slate off as wins may be premature. BYU was a tough out for every team it played last season and beat Mississippi State. Troy won 10 games in Neal Brown’s second season and stayed within a score of Clemson. Syracuse has the most returning starters in FBS football, for what that’s worth.

Things could go quite well for LSU. They will enter the season, as they do most years, with as much talent as any team not based in Tuscaloosa, a top 5-10 ranking, and a Heisman candidate at running back. The offense should get a revamp from Matt Canada. But there’s that glaring issue at quarterback, though. The projected starter is Danny Etling again, coming off back surgery.

If you’re looking for that team that starts the season in the Top 10 and has the bottom fall out from under them, LSU is a quite plausible candidate. The fortunate thing for Coach O is he has a $12 million buyout after 2017. The experiment should last at least two years.

About Ty Duffy

Ty is a freelance writer/editor based outside Detroit. He's a Michigan Man. He enjoys dogs, whiskey, yoga, and composing pithy career summaries. Contact him at tyduffy@gmail.com.

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