There are two top 10 matchups this week and usually, that would make this one of the best college football weeks of the season. Adding intrigue to the schedule is that both of the higher-ranked teams are on the road.
Yet both of the lower-ranked teams are double-digit home underdogs. No. 9 Tennessee is a 12.5-point underdog against No. 1 Alabama, and No. 8 Wisconsin is a 10-point underdog against No. 2 Ohio State.
That’s a strange sight, but in a strange year in college football, it’s reiterating just how big the gap between good and elite is this season. It’s possibly bigger than any other year in recent memory. In fact, it’s reasonable to wonder whether the top five teams in the country — Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Michigan and Washington — will be less than double-digit favorites again this season against anyone but each other.
This phenomenon is caused by two things: The most obvious is that the top teams are really, really good, and that there just aren’t enough great teams to balance them out. Louisville is the only other team that can claim to be near, or at, that elite tier. But consider the rest of the top 10.
Sunday Rewind: Relive the final 3 minutes of the 4th quarter, plus OT from that absolutely bananas Texas A&M win over Tennessee. #12thMan pic.twitter.com/UaBnCshvFh
— Colin Deaver (@KAGS_Colin) October 9, 2016
No. 6 Texas A&M is 6-0, but the Aggies have had close calls against UCLA, Tennessee and South Carolina. With Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU still on the schedule, the Aggies face a very tough uphill battle. No. 8 Wisconsin’s only loss came to Michigan, but the Badgers’ signature wins don’t look nearly as good anymore. Beating LSU before its quarterback and coaching change waters down that win a bit, and the big road win at Michigan State doesn’t look nearly as good now that the Spartans have lost to BYU and Indiana. No. 9 Tennessee lost to Texas A&M and has used a combination of Hail Marys, opponents missing extra points and crazy comebacks to win the rest of its games. No. 10 Nebraska is undefeated, but hasn’t played anybody tough so far and got challenges from Illinois, Fresno State and Oregon.
In my weekly projected rankings, it was tough to find any teams to rank at all beyond the top 15 because there’s so much mediocrity in the sport this year.
The top-heaviness is also caused by the fact that the elite teams are so spread out. This isn’t like the early 2010s, when the SEC could legitimately claim three or four of the best teams in the country. This year, the only elite SEC team is Alabama. The Pac-12 is so lopsided that Washington, at No. 5, is the only team from the conference in the top 20. Clemson’s toughest game, at home against Louisville, is already behind it. And while the Big Ten has four teams in the top 10, most people expect Ohio State-Michigan to ultimately decide the league’s College Football Playoff representative.
The elite teams don’t have to play each other for a while, so they’re all stacked at the top while the rest of the country fights beneath them, sometimes for higher spots than their strength truly deserves.
However, this season might appear even more top-heavy than it actually is because some of the best teams slipped up early. The F/+ statistical ratings agree on the top seven teams in the rankings, but after that are four teams with two losses each (Florida State, LSU, Ole Miss and Auburn). Tennessee ranks 13th, Nebraska 16th and Wisconsin 17th.
None of those two-loss teams have any hope of making the Playoff, and they all clearly have their flaws. But they also have the highest ceilings of the rest of the teams in the sport and will be at an inherent disadvantage in the rankings because of their early-season slip-ups.
Ranked vs. ranked matchups are always fun, and it’s possible we’ll see some upsets this season. But don’t get too excited by top 10 match-ups this season. At least of the ones remaining, the numbers don’t tell the true story about the gap in strength.
