ANNAPOLIS, MD – NOVEMBER 12: Members of the Navy Midshipmen take the field before the start of their game against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium on November 12, 2016 in Annapolis, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

With the American Athletic Conference’s West Division title clinched, the Navy Midshipmen head into the final weekend of the regular season with few concerns. At 8-2, they’re among the best Group of Five teams in the country. Even with a loss to SMU on Saturday, they still stand a pretty good chance to win their first conference title in program history.

That part of the story isn’t a problem. Navy’s been riding a 14-year hot streak and this could be the pinnacle of their recent success. No, the problem is what could happen to the College Football Playoff if Navy beats SMU and wins its conference title the following weekend.

It would require some mild chaos, admittedly. But 25th-ranked Navy could be the top G5 school standing when the dust settles on the “final” Playoff rankings. Observe:

  • Wyoming beats New Mexico this weekend to claim the Mountain West’s Mountain Division title over No. 19 Boise State.
  • No. 21 Western Michigan loses to either Toledo this week or East Division champ Ohio in the MAC title game.

That’s really it.

The CFP guaranteeing an access bowl spot to a G5 school every year was inclusive in theory, but came with a catch. You have to win your conference. If 10-2 Navy is the AAC champ standing next to 10-3 Wyoming, 12-1 Toledo, 10-3 Western Kentucky, and 8-4 Arkansas State, the pick is the Midshipmen, no? Of those five, Navy is the only team currently ranked by the Playoff committee.

However, there’s an additional wrinkle for the committee when they prepare to announce the Playoff match-ups on December 4. Navy’s season doesn’t end until Saturday, December 10.

Yes, the Army-Navy game, long a pageantry-filled-but-inconsequential last gasp for the college football regular season, would dictate who went to the Cotton Bowl. If Navy wins and is the top G5 school, they’re in. Lose to Army and that invite’s going elsewhere.

Navy’s beaten Army for 14 straight years. Can the committee afford to assume a 15th consecutive win?

The committee, of course, is beholden to the wishes of ESPN. The Worldwide Leader would love to have Navy as part of the Playoff. From a casual interest and ratings perspective, the Midshipmen are one of the better non-Notre Dame options around. But the cost of going with Navy is waiting a week to release the final rankings and the pairings of the six major bowl games.

Would ESPN be willing to let us go a week without “The Playoff is Coming” spots and Jimmy Kimmel New Year’s songs? There are also the numerous sponsors of the Playoff who have ad time built in to the month prior to New Year’s Eve. ESPN already had to take a bath on ad revenue during last year’s semifinal games. Don’t be so certain they can afford to again.

It’s tough to blame ESPN too much, though. It is sort of Navy’s “fault” this situation exists.

At the height of the most recent realignment craze, Navy announced they’d be joining the AAC starting in 2015. The Midshipmen were one of just two programs (Notre Dame being the other) to have never joined a conference before. But the opportunity for more exposure and greater competition in the American appealed to them.

They were also up to the challenge of facing the likes of Houston, USF, Temple, Tulsa and more. On the back of star quarterback Keenan Reynolds, Navy went 11-2 in their conference debut. Losing a tiebreaker with Houston was the only thing that kept them from playing for a league title.

In 2016, they’re on the verge of equaling the W-L record, albeit this time with a conference championship in hand.

After losing starter Tago Smith to an ACL tear in the opener, Navy handed the QB role to senior Will Worth. Rather than being a downgrade, Worth has been exactly what the team needed for its triple-option attack. Worth has over 1,000 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns, to go with 1,200 passing yards and seven more scores this season.

The high-water mark for Worth and the Midshipmen was the surprising victory over then-No. 6 Houston in early October. It was the school’s biggest upset in decades. It’s also what sets them apart from contenders like Toledo, San Diego State or Wyoming, should chaos hit during championship week. Navy’s resume (even if its leaning on that one victory) simply outpaces the field. This week’s rankings prove that.

This all leads back to the question of what the committee and ESPN are going to do if Navy is the best G5 school after week 14. The margin, while there, would be slim between Navy and some of the other contenders. There’s also no way for ESPN to promote the Army-Navy game as a decisive contest for the Playoff, since it’s on CBS.

You’d have to think the parties involved are above chicanery to move Navy off that top spot – especially given the branding value of the Midshipmen vs. any other G5 option in the Cotton Bowl. But this is the same group that’s brought us hits such as “game control” and “body clocks” in the past. There are no guarantees.

Part one of this chaos theory will play out this week, as the conference championship game participants are confirmed around the country. Then, the “problem” is not Navy’s to solve, but it’s certainly theirs to cause. Let’s see if they can set this thing ablaze or not.

About John Cassillo

John Cassillo covers all things Syracuse sports (and beer) as managing editor of Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician. An SU alum, he hasn't missed an Orange football game since 2006, despite his better judgment. John lives in the Los Angeles area with his wife, and his dog who's named after Jim Boeheim.