SYRACUSE, NY – FEBRUARY 11: DaJuan Coleman #32 of the Syracuse Orange shoots the ball between Montay Brandon #32 and Dwayne Bacon #4 of the Florida State Seminoles during the second half at the Carrier Dome on February 11, 2016 in Syracuse, New York. Syracuse won 85-72. (Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images)

Two weeks after our first bubble watch, it’s time for the second installment, as we draw within a month of Selection Sunday.

Our last bubble watch featured a whopping 32 teams, but some teams have played themselves off the bubble, meaning we’re only working with 21 teams this time around.

Here’s a look at the entire NCAA Tournament picture, with the locks, the teams that are probably fine and the bubble teams. Compare your team’s resume with its competitors, and find your team’s path for the rest of the season.

ACC

Locks: North Carolina, Miami, Virginia

Probably fine: Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh

Bubble: Syracuse, Clemson, Florida State

We’re getting to the point where the teams in the “probably fine” group would have to really mess up not to make it. That’s particularly true of Duke and Notre Dame, which have plenty of quality wins to get in now. The big question is the bubble. Syracuse is playing much better, defeating Florida State on Thursday, 85-72, while Clemson is falling off, having most recently lost at home to Notre Dame.

 

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas

Probably fine: Baylor

Bubble: Kansas State, Texas Tech

Texas moves up to the lock line, and Baylor is very close to doing so, as well, helped by Wednesday’s road win over Kansas State, 82-72. The Big 12 is the strongest league in the country, and its top line shows that, as Kansas and Oklahoma are both top-flight title contenders. The question is whether Kansas State and Texas Tech can turn it on. If they can, an incredible 80 percent of the league will make the tournament. Texas Tech gets a chance against Baylor on Saturday night, while Kansas State faces a very beatable Oklahoma State team earlier in the day. The big game in the Big 12 this weekend, of course, is No. 6 Kansas at No. 3 Oklahoma at 2:30 ET on Saturday. The winner could be in line for a top seed, both in conference play, and the NCAA Tournament.

 

Big East

Locks: Villanova, Xavier, Providence

Probably fine: Seton Hall

Bubble: Butler, Georgetown

Seton Hall moves up a line after last time, rattling off four straight wins after back-to-back losses to Villanova and Xavier. That said, Seton Hall’s home loss to Butler on Wednesday doesn’t help the Pirates’ chances, while helping Butler immensely. The bubble should be interesting. Butler has had a miserable conference season but might still have enough to make it after winning three straight. Meanwhile, Georgetown and Creighton are hanging on by a thread. Marquette completely falls off.

 

Big Ten

Locks: Iowa, Maryland, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue

Probably fine: Michigan

Bubble: Wisconsin

Ohio State falls off the bubble completely, having lost five of the last nine games, including a double-digit loss at Wisconsin. The Badgers started Big Ten season 1-4, with the only win coming against Rutgers, but have won six straight, took down Michigan State and Indiana in that span, and look to be heading toward the NCAA Tournament for the 12th straight year. There shouldn’t be a ton of drama in the Big Ten, other than the Badgers, as long as Michigan doesn’t keep sliding. The Wolverines are coming off blowout losses to Indiana and Michigan State, and a near-loss to last place Minnesota.

 

Pac-12

Locks: Oregon, USC, Arizona

Probably fine: Utah, Colorado

Bubble: Cal, Oregon State, Washington

Oregon had taken firm control of the Pac-12, and the Ducks were in line to even challenge for a No. 1 seed if everything fell into place. And then Thursday happened, and a road loss to Cal by 20 points, 83-63, is not going to help that. Still, Oregon is fine, and Cal is in even better shape with a huge win to stay undefeated at home in conference. USC and Arizona are the least-locky locks you can be, but I hesitantly put them there. Cal, Oregon State and Washington will battle it out for the last few spots in the NCAA Tournament, and they all need to get signature wins—in Cal’s case, a win at Washington on February 18th another one at Arizona on March 3 would be huge—perhaps to do it.

 

SEC

Locks: Texas A&M, Kentucky

Probably fine: South Carolina, Florida

Bubble: LSU, Vanderbilt

Georgia drops off completely losing three of the last five games, as the fight continues in the middle of the SEC. LSU and Vanderbilt both have the potential, but both need some more consistency. Vanderbilt, for instance, can’t beat Texas A&M but lose to Ole Miss in consecutive games and expect to make the NCAA field. Florida is nearing lock status despite the recent 19-point loss to Kentucky—the win over No. 9 West Virginia certainly helped—while South Carolina should have enough quantity to overcome a lack of quality wins outside of last week’s road win at No. 8, Texas A&M.

 

Everyone else

Locks: 24 one-bid conference champions, Wichita State, Dayton

Probably fine: UConn

Bubble: Cincinnati, George Washington, Gonzaga, VCU, St. Joseph’s, Temple, St. Mary’s

 

So here’s the bubble

There are 57 spots taken when we count the 34 teams that are locks or probably fine, then 23 one-bid conference champions. However, there will also potentially be some bid thieves. For example, if someone comes out of nowhere to take the Atlantic 10 from Dayton, the Missouri Valley from Wichita State, the AAC from Cincinnati/UConn, etc., then there will be even fewer spots available.

But in the event there are no bid thieves, that leaves 11 spots (thank Louisville for that, bubble teams) for 21 potential bubble teams. Here’s how their resumes stack up:

[table id=BubbleWatchFeb12 /]

If I were the committee, I’d take Cal, Washington, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Oregon State, Texas Tech, LSU, Florida State, Clemson and Butler. Alas, I am not the committee, but at the very least, this should give an idea of what each team needs to do the rest of the way.

Namely, win.

About Kevin Trahan

Kevin mostly covers college football and college basketball, with an emphasis on NCAA issues and other legal issues in sports. He is also an incoming law student. He's written for SB Nation, USA Today, VICE Sports, The Guardian and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He is a graduate of Northwestern University.