LAWRENCE, KS – JANUARY 04: Wayne Selden Jr. #1 of the Kansas Jayhawks celebrates with fans as he leaves the court after the Jayhawks defeated the Oklahoma Sooners 109-106 in triple overtime to win the game at Allen Fieldhouse on January 4, 2016 in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) ORG XMIT: 587451595 ORIG FILE ID: 503430046
NCAABy Matt Zemek on

The NCAA Tournament South Region bracket included two teams few bracketologists expected heading into this past Saturday: Kansas and Villanova.

Most bracket projections had Kansas going to the Midwest Region, while Villanova was long perceived as the No. 1 seed in the East. Kansas playing a regional in Louisville instead of Chicago is not a big deal — the two sites are almost equidistant from the KU campus in Lawrence. The big story in terms of geographical placement is clearly Villanova.

When the Wildcats lost in the Big East Tournament final to Seton Hall Saturday night, their place not only on the 1 line, but in the East, became precarious. The Selection Committee, many felt, would keep Villanova in the East but knock the Wildcats to a No. 2 seed. Instead, by sending Jay Wright’s team to the South, Villanova will play the regionals (should it get there) in Louisville, not in Philadelphia.

Given that Villanova played very few games in Wells Fargo Arena (the Philadelphia 76ers’ home arena and the site of the East Regional), the Wildcats were eligible to play there in the Sweet 16. Staying on campus this season was an intentional choice by Villanova to set up a home-court regional. When Villanova was sent to the South, that plan failed.

Let’s look at each team in the region:

1. Kansas (30-4)

Coach Bill Self, fresh off his 12th straight Big 12 regular season championship, leads the No. 1 overall seed into the tournament. Perry Ellis is the MVP, but Devonte Graham is the player who must be at his best for KU to return to the Final Four.

Chances of advancing past the first round: No top seed has ever lost to a 16 seed. Don’t expect that to change here.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Connecticut could get hot in March again, but Kansas plays strong perimeter defense and can contain the Huskies.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: The path is favorable. Maryland and California have been inconsistent, and Villanova is not a reliable March team.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Few teams have a better chance — maybe only Michigan State.

 

2. Villanova (29-5)

Coach Jay Wright’s team defended its Big East regular season title. Many veterans return for one more run at the Final Four, but a freshman — Jalen Brunson — could be the team’s most vital player.

Chances of advancing past the first round: UNC-Asheville might not be a walk in the park, but veteran guardplay should steer Nova through this game.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Temple and Iowa have both struggled in recent weeks — that’s a tremendous draw in the round of 32.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Not great. Miami’s defense will pose problems in the Sweet 16, and Kansas in the Elite Eight would be even tougher.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Better than most, but below five to seven other highly-seeded teams.

3. Miami, FL (25-7)

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Jim Larranaga was voted the ACC Coach of the Year. Can Sheldon McClellan (15.8 points per game) elevate his game and bring Larranaga a second Final Four?

Chances of advancing past the first round: Buffalo is two seeds lower than it was in last year’s tournament. Miami should be fine.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Wichita State would be a tougher foe than Arizona in the second round; Miami has the guards to handle the Shockers.

Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Reasonable. An Elite Eight run is very possible; Kansas would be tough to beat.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: The path from the Sweet 16 through the title game would be daunting.

 

4. California (23-10)

Coach Cuonzo Martin’s team won only three Pac-12 road games this season, none of them against NCAA tournament teams.

Chances of advancing past the first round: Hawaii’s never won an NCAA tournament game; expect that fact to remain intact.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Maryland anywhere is tough; Maryland in Spokane? That might be just enough to help Cal move through.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Not good. Kansas would put the hammer down in the Sweet 16.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Certainly under 15 percent, but not necessarily under 3 percent.

 

5. Maryland (25-8)

https://twitter.com/alex_kirshner/status/708486166933143554

Coach Mark Turgeon’s collection of high-end talent gets a chance to make up for an unven regular season. Melo Trimble needs to become the 2016 answer to Shabazz Napier in 2014 for Connecticut.

Chances of advancing past the first round: South Dakota State shoots the three. If Maryland defends the way it did in the Big Ten Tournament, it should advance.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Facing Cal in Spokane is a 50-50 game; Maryland must win most 50-50 balls against the Bears.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: This team has not shown in recent weeks that it is ready to take down Kansas or Villanova.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: If Melo Trimble attains God mode, not out of the question… but will he?

 

6. Arizona (25-8)

The Wildcats lost multiple players from a team which made consecutive Elite Eights. Coach Sean Miller will have to work some magic.

Chances of advancing past the first round: A lot better had the opponent been Vanderbilt and not Wichita State (First Four). Shocker, it’s Wichita State.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Miami has the veteran experience Arizona currently lacks. The Cats probably won’t escape the round of 32.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Arizona needs bracket chaos (which could unfold).
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Worse odds than the 1997 team which won it all.

 

7. Iowa (21-10)

Fran McCaffery’s team surged in January and has slumped over the past several weeks. Jarrod Uthoff (18.9 points per game) needs to be a monster.

Chances of advancing past the first round: Temple looked horrible in the AAC Tournament. Iowa should like its chances, even in Brooklyn.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Villanova is way too fast for the Hawkeyes in the round of 32.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: The higher seeds in Iowa’s path must play poorly. Iowa’s not in control of its fate.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Minimal.

 

8. Colorado (22-11)

Coach Tad Boyle played college ball at Kansas — he could face the Jayhawks in the round of 32.

Chances of advancing past the first round: It depends on which Connecticut shows up — in other words, it’s a toss-up.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Colorado is not Kansas, on so many levels. Nope.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Even if CU beats Kansas, Cal would oust the Buffs in the Sweet 16.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Not large enough to see from a distance of 30 feet.

 

9. Connecticut (24-10)

https://twitter.com/Madness2k16/status/708412870325706753

Kevin Ollie has won one national title in improbable fashion; can his team — led by Jalen Adams and Daniel Hamilton — get hot at the right time again?

Chances of advancing past the first round: Connecticut’s best players are better than Colorado’s best players.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Kansas defends the perimeter too well; UConn would need an exceptional defensive performance of its own.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: If UConn can get by Kansas, look out…
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: This is UConn, but this team just isn’t as good as 2014’s group.

 

10. Temple (21-11)

Coach Fran Dunphy didn’t get the best from his team in the AAC Tournament. Quenton DeCosey (4-17 field goals in the AAC semis) must step up.

Chances of advancing past the first round: Very good if DeCosey can take charge bounce back from a bad game against Connecticut last Saturday.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Villanova crushed Temple in the regular season; nothing would change here.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Worse than 11th-seeded Wichita State.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Nonexistent.

 

11. Wichita State (24-8)

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Coach Gregg Marshall has already authored one unexpected Final Four run (above in 2013). Can he make it two?

Chances of advancing past the first round: The Shockers already have one NCAA win under their belt this year, and they match up well with Arizona.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: This is when playing in the First Four often catches up with a team — three games in five days probably means a loss.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: VCU in 2011 is the only First Four team to make the Final Four. Wichita won’t be the second.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: The road is too grueling.

 

11. Vanderbilt (19-13)

Coach Kevin Stallings has made the Sweet 16 twice before; he needs the best version of Damian Jones (14.2 points, 6.9 rebounds per game) if he wants to make it three.

Chances of advancing past the first round: That didn’t last long…

12. South Dakota State (26-7)

Coach Scott Nagy’s team survived the semis of the Summit League Tournament when Denver’s best free throw shooter missed a front end in the last second of regulation.

Chances of advancing past the first round: Maryland is more talented… but erratic enough to keep SDSU close throughout. This 12-5 upset could happen.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: California plays sound defense, a bad match for the Jackrabbits’ shooters.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Less than other No. 12 seeds on the board.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Not easily visible.

 

13. Hawaii (27-5)

Coach Eran Ganot needs Stefan Jankovic (15.7 points, 6.6 rebounds per game) to flourish this week.

Chances of advancing past the first round: Hawaii always has to travel a great distance to its NCAA tournament site, an eternal handicap.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Maryland’s inside-outside balance would be hard to contend with in round two.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: This is impossible to imagine.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: As good as the chances of Honolulu hosting a Final Four anytime soon.

 

14. Buffalo (20-14)

Buffalo has reached consecutive NCAA tournaments under different coaches. Nate Oats took over for Bobby Hurley and kept UB dancing.

Chances of advancing past the first round: Miami is not likely to play poorly enough for the Bulls to spring the upset.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Better with Vanderbilt as the opponent, compared to Arizona or Wichita State.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: As good as the Buffalo Bills winning the AFC East next season.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: As good as the Bills winning the Super Bowl next season.

 

15. UNC Asheville (22-11)

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Coach Nick McDevitt (above) has been a player or coach at UNC Asheville for the last 19 years, without interruption.

Chances of advancing past the first round: Villanova is both talented and familiar with this situation, but UNCA could put up a fight.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Iowa and Temple would not easily win this game, if it happens.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: No 15 seed has ever made it to the Elite Eight. Let’s do that first.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Ashes, ashes, we all fall down.

 

16. Austin Peay (18-17)

Coach Dave Loos, who has been at Austin Peay since 1990, needs Chris Horton (18.9 points, 12 boards per game) to make a splash.

Chances of advancing past the first round: Horton must score at least 35, probably more, just to keep it close against Kansas.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Let’s worry about beating Kansas first.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Not worth discussing.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: The Miracle on Ice would seem like an ordinary event by comparison.

About Matt Zemek

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@TrojansWire
| CFB writer since 2001 |

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