Update (12:55 Eastern): The Selection Committee selected Alabama in the College Football Playoff, so ignore the “bonus bowl projections” at the bottom.
The college football regular season is over, with the bowls and the College Football Playoff remaining. We’ll find out the full bowl lineup at some point Sunday (or a day or two later in extreme circumstances), but for now we have to do the best we can to predict where your favorite teams will end up.
Bowl projections in the College Football Playoff era have become more of an art than a science. There is no more selection order or priority for the top bowls. Instead, the committee tries to select the best matchups for fans and viewers of the New Year’s Six bowls.
As we get to the lower bowls, most conferences no longer have bowls select teams. Instead, the conferences pool groups of bowls together and select which teams go to those bowls. These teams can be chosen for any reason — the conference can decide based on geography, local fan interest, expected TV viewership, or even the likelihood of its team winning the game. Predicting who goes where in the bowl pool era is near-impossible. We keep an ear to the ground for all rumors as to how to make these selections.
Lastly, the ESPN-owned bowls can all trade teams with each other. This can be for any reason. The bowls can want a certain matchup because of local interest, or ESPN can want a certain matchup to showcase certain teams or players. There really is no way to predict these until they actually happen, though rumors about this can slip out as well.
College Football Playoff Projections
| Rose Bowl | Mon, Jan 1, 2018, 5:00 PM | Oklahoma vs Georgia |
| Sugar Bowl | Mon, Jan 1, 2018, 8:45 PM | Clemson vs Alabama |
Clemson will be the top seed. Oklahoma and Georgia will face off in the Rose Bowl. That much is guaranteed. Whether the final Playoff spot goes to Alabama or Ohio State is anyone’s guess. I’ll present the resumes, and feel free to pick who goes to the Playoff.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP (rank) |
| Alabama | 0-1 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 30-55 | 5 | 6.6 (10) | 4.0 (2) |
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP (rank) |
| Ohio State | 2-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 5-30 | 4 | 6.9 (7) | 4.2 (5) |
Some of those numbers should be slightly different (like the yards per play metric) due to this week’s games, but here it is. Ohio State has a better resume. Is that enough to overcome how ugly the Buckeyes looked in a 31-point loss to Iowa? I honestly have no idea. I’m leaning towards Alabama, though this really is a 50/50 call, as my rapid Twitter poll shows.
New Year’s Six Bowl Projections
| Fiesta Bowl | Sat, Dec 30, 2017, 4:00 PM | Washington vs UCF |
| Orange Bowl | Sat, Dec 30, 2017, 8:00 PM | Miami (Fl) vs Wisconsin |
| Peach Bowl | Mon, Jan 1, 2018, 12:30 PM | Penn State vs Auburn |
| Cotton Bowl | Fri, Dec 29, 2017, 8:30 PM | Ohio State vs USC |
Here’s the real problem. Whoever ends up as the No. 4 seed in the Playoff creates huge ripple effects in all of the bowl games. So, assuming Alabama is in the Playoff, the committee has lots of options.
I think the committee will go for the compelling game and traditional Big Ten vs Pac 12 bowl matchup, and put the champions of those two conferences in the Cotton Bowl.
Miami is locked into the Orange Bowl as Clemson’s replacement, and will face the highest non-champion of the Big Ten or SEC, which will be Wisconsin.
That leaves two games: Washington vs UCF and Penn State vs Auburn. Either game can be in either remaining bowl, and prevailing wisdom is that UCF will be in the Peach Bowl. However, I think the committee will move that game to the Fiesta Bowl for ease of travel for Washington fans.
Other Bowl Projections
There are 81 bowl-eligible teams, which means that three will be staying home. They will all likely come from Conference USA and the MAC, and right now I have Buffalo (MAC), Middle Tennessee (Conference USA), and Louisiana Tech (Conference USA) stuck sitting at home this bowl season.
| New Orleans Bowl | Sat, Dec 16, 2017, 1:00 PM | Florida Atlantic vs Troy |
| Cure Bowl | Sat, Dec 16, 2017, 2:30 PM | Georgia State vs Utah |
| Las Vegas Bowl | Sat, Dec 16, 2017, 3:30 PM | Boise State vs Arizona |
| New Mexico Bowl | Sat, Dec 16, 2017, 4:30 PM | Colorado State vs UTSA |
| Camellia Bowl | Sat, Dec 16, 2017, 8:00 PM | Central Michigan vs Arkansas State |
| Boca Raton Bowl | Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 7:00 PM | Temple vs FIU |
| Frisco Bowl | Wed, Dec 20, 2017, 8:00 PM | SMU vs Western Michigan |
| Gasparilla Bowl | Thu, Dec 21, 2017, 8:00 PM | Southern Miss vs Texas Tech |
| Bahamas Bowl | Fri, Dec 22, 2017, 12:30 PM | UAB vs Ohio |
| Idaho Potato Bowl | Fri, Dec 22, 2017, 4:00 PM | Akron vs Wyoming |
| Birmingham Bowl | Sat, Dec 23, 2017, 12:00 PM | South Florida vs Utah |
| Armed Forces Bowl | Sat, Dec 23, 2017, 3:30 PM | Marshall vs Army |
| Dollar General Bowl | Sat, Dec 23, 2017, 7:00 PM | Toledo vs Appalachian State |
| Hawaii Bowl | Sun, Dec 24, 2017, 8:30 PM | Houston vs Fresno State |
| Heart of Dallas Bowl | Tue, Dec 26, 2017, 1:30 PM | Texas vs North Texas |
| Quick Lane Bowl | Tue, Dec 26, 2017, 5:15 PM | Virginia vs Purdue |
| Cactus Bowl | Tue, Dec 26, 2017, 9:00 PM | UCLA vs Iowa State |
| Independence Bowl | Wed, Dec 27, 2017, 1:30 PM | Duke vs Western Kentucky |
| Pinstripe Bowl | Wed, Dec 27, 2017, 5:15 PM | Florida State vs Iowa |
| Foster Farms Bowl | Wed, Dec 27, 2017, 8:30 PM | San Diego State vs Washington State |
| Texas Bowl | Wed, Dec 27, 2017, 9:00 PM | West Virginia vs Missouri |
| Military Bowl | Thu, Dec 28, 2017, 1:30 PM | Navy vs Boston College |
| Camping World Bowl | Thu, Dec 28, 2017, 5:15 PM | Notre Dame vs Oklahoma State |
| Alamo Bowl | Thu, Dec 28, 2017, 9:00 PM | TCU vs Stanford |
| Holiday Bowl | Thu, Dec 28, 2017, 9:00 PM | Michigan vs Arizona State |
| Belk Bowl | Fri, Dec 29, 2017, 1:00 PM | Louisville vs South Carolina |
| Sun Bowl | Fri, Dec 29, 2017, 3:00 PM | Wake Forest vs Oregon |
| Music City Bowl | Fri, Dec 29, 2017, 4:30 PM | Northwestern vs Kentucky |
| Arizona Bowl | Fri, Dec 29, 2017, 5:30 PM | New Mexico State vs Utah State |
| Citrus Bowl | Mon, Jan 1, 2018, 1:00 PM | Virginia Tech vs LSU |
| Tax Slayer Bowl | Sat, Dec 30, 2017, 12:00 PM | N.C State vs Texas A&M |
| Liberty Bowl | Sat, Dec 30, 2017, 12:30 PM | Memphis vs Kansas State |
| Outback Bowl | Mon, Jan 1, 2018, 12:00 PM | Michigan State vs Mississippi State |
Bonus Bowl Projections
Because the goal here is to give the most possible information about where your team will end up, I will provide a second set of projections. These are the bowl projections based on if Ohio State is selected as the No. 4 team. As mentioned above, it’s really a 50/50 call. I’m leaning Alabama, but either one could easily happen. The ripple effects will change a lot of bowl games, so the second projections are here.
College Football Playoff
| Rose Bowl | Mon, Jan 1, 2018, 5:00 PM | Oklahoma vs Georgia |
| Sugar Bowl | Mon, Jan 1, 2018, 8:45 PM | Clemson vs Ohio State |
New Year’s Six
| Fiesta Bowl | Sat, Dec 30, 2017, 4:00 PM | Penn State vs USC |
| Orange Bowl | Sat, Dec 30, 2017, 8:00 PM | Miami (Fl) vs Alabama |
| Peach Bowl | Mon, Jan 1, 2018, 12:30 PM | Washington vs UCF |
| Cotton Bowl | Fri, Dec 29, 2017, 8:30 PM | Wisconsin vs Auburn |
As the highest-ranked SEC or Big Ten team, Alabama now has to play in the Orange Bowl.
There is now a chance to stage a rematch of last year’s best bowl game in the Fiesta Bowl, and the committee will take advantage. This leaves Wisconsin vs Auburn in the Cotton Bowl, and Washington vs UCF in the Peach Bowl. The committee could put Washington vs UCF in the Cotton Bowl to make travel easier for Washington fans, but the Cotton Bowl hosted the Group of 5 team last year and the committee will avoid having that happen a second straight year.
One final thing could muddy some projections. Some are assuming that TCU may remain ranked ahead of Washington. I don’t think this is likely, but if it happens then there will be further ripple effects throughout the bowls.
Other Bowls
| New Orleans Bowl | Sat, Dec 16, 2017, 1:00 PM | Florida Atlantic vs Troy |
| Cure Bowl | Sat, Dec 16, 2017, 2:30 PM | Georgia State vs Buffalo |
| Las Vegas Bowl | Sat, Dec 16, 2017, 3:30 PM | Boise State vs Arizona |
| New Mexico Bowl | Sat, Dec 16, 2017, 4:30 PM | Colorado State vs UTSA |
| Camellia Bowl | Sat, Dec 16, 2017, 8:00 PM | Central Michigan vs Arkansas State |
| Boca Raton Bowl | Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 7:00 PM | Temple vs FIU |
| Frisco Bowl | Wed, Dec 20, 2017, 8:00 PM | SMU vs Western Michigan |
| Gasparilla Bowl | Thu, Dec 21, 2017, 8:00 PM | Southern Miss vs Texas Tech |
| Bahamas Bowl | Fri, Dec 22, 2017, 12:30 PM | UAB vs Ohio |
| Idaho Potato Bowl | Fri, Dec 22, 2017, 4:00 PM | Northern Illinois vs Wyoming |
| Birmingham Bowl | Sat, Dec 23, 2017, 12:00 PM | South Florida vs Florida State |
| Armed Forces Bowl | Sat, Dec 23, 2017, 3:30 PM | Marshall vs Army |
| Dollar General Bowl | Sat, Dec 23, 2017, 7:00 PM | Toledo vs Appalachian State |
| Hawaii Bowl | Sun, Dec 24, 2017, 8:30 PM | Houston vs Fresno State |
| Heart of Dallas Bowl | Tue, Dec 26, 2017, 1:30 PM | Texas vs North Texas |
| Quick Lane Bowl | Tue, Dec 26, 2017, 5:15 PM | Virginia vs Akron |
| Cactus Bowl | Tue, Dec 26, 2017, 9:00 PM | UCLA vs Iowa State |
| Independence Bowl | Wed, Dec 27, 2017, 1:30 PM | Duke vs Western Kentucky |
| Pinstripe Bowl | Wed, Dec 27, 2017, 5:15 PM | Notre Dame vs Purdue |
| Foster Farms Bowl | Wed, Dec 27, 2017, 8:30 PM | San Diego State vs Washington State |
| Texas Bowl | Wed, Dec 27, 2017, 9:00 PM | West Virginia vs Missouri |
| Military Bowl | Thu, Dec 28, 2017, 1:30 PM | Navy vs Boston College |
| Camping World Bowl | Thu, Dec 28, 2017, 5:15 PM | Virginia Tech vs Oklahoma State |
| Alamo Bowl | Thu, Dec 28, 2017, 9:00 PM | TCU vs Stanford |
| Holiday Bowl | Thu, Dec 28, 2017, 9:00 PM | Iowa vs Arizona State |
| Belk Bowl | Fri, Dec 29, 2017, 1:00 PM | Louisville vs South Carolina |
| Sun Bowl | Fri, Dec 29, 2017, 3:00 PM | Wake Forest vs Oregon |
| Music City Bowl | Fri, Dec 29, 2017, 4:30 PM | Northwestern vs Kentucky |
| Arizona Bowl | Fri, Dec 29, 2017, 5:30 PM | New Mexico State vs Utah State |
| Citrus Bowl | Mon, Jan 1, 2018, 1:00 PM | Michigan State vs LSU |
| Tax Slayer Bowl | Sat, Dec 30, 2017, 12:00 PM | N.C State vs Texas A&M |
| Liberty Bowl | Sat, Dec 30, 2017, 12:30 PM | Memphis vs Kansas State |
| Outback Bowl | Mon, Jan 1, 2018, 12:00 PM | Michigan vs Mississippi State |
