Say what you will about in-game win probability charts, but when the win probability is at 99.9%, usually that’s a pretty good indication of who’s going to win a game- especially when it’s one of the top teams in the country with that win probability vs an unranked team.
No. 3 Oregon had a 99.9% win probability vs unranked Stanford vs 1:51 remaining on Saturday, and lost.
Oregon had a 99.9% win probability vs. Stanford with 1:51 remaining in the game.
They lost 🤯 pic.twitter.com/sQ2WHXusg2
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) October 2, 2021
Trailing 24-17, Stanford drove 87 yards in the final two minutes and scored a touchdown on an untimed down to send the game to overtime (after the extra point). Elijah Higgins reeled in a Tanner McKee pass for the touchdown.
Stanford with the TD on an untimed down to end regulation! It's now 24-24 in OT vs No. 3 Oregon. 🏈 pic.twitter.com/pA82NR9Akr
— The Comeback (@thecomeback) October 2, 2021
On 3rd-and-11 in the first possession of overtime, McKee found John Humphreys for a Stanford touchdown to take the lead.
Stanford starts OT with a TD. Tanner McKee whips it to John Humphreys for the big score on 3rd & 11. Oregon needs a TD to stay alive.
— CFB Blitz (@BlitzCfb) October 2, 2021
And on the ensuing possession, Oregon threw an incomplete pass on 4th-and-8 to give Stanford the 31-24 upset victory.
Stanford beats No. 3 Oregon in OT! 🏈 pic.twitter.com/bO3kVU6N4j
— The Comeback (@thecomeback) October 3, 2021
Stanford actually led this game 17-7 at halftime, but Oregon — who entered as an 8.5-point favorite — went on a 17-0 run until the Cardinal tied it with no time remaining.
It’s a huge win for Stanford, who improves to 3-2. Oregon falls to 4-1, and their College Football Playoff chances take a huge hit.