Week 8 of the college football season saw a surprising lack of chaos. We saw plenty of teams almost lose big games — Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Miami (Florida) barely avoided disaster — but we did not see any season-upending upsets. Sure, West Virginia and USF both almost let awful teams come back, and Michigan State needed 14 in the final quarter to beat Indiana. But how much teams win by rarely matters now. Unless a team consistently underperforms, the principle of “survive and advance” still very much lives on in college football.
The college football world will focus on Penn State and Notre Dame this week. After all, both teams won huge games against good teams. They were certainly the two most impressive teams in college football this past week. But if we’ve learned anything from the College Football Playoff era (or even college football at all for the past forever), it’s that impressive wins matter far less than losses.
In the Playoff era, it’s clear that who you beat matters more than who you lose to. A bad loss won’t hurt more than a mediocre loss, so long as a team has good enough wins to outweigh that. But what matters infinitely more than who you beat? How many losses you have.
We’ve seen that awful schedules will leave a team out of the rankings, even if that team goes undefeated. But short of that, the number of losses still reigns supreme. Yeah, Penn State’s and Notre Dame’s big wins will matter if resumes are really close. But the big story of this past week was who didn’t lose, not who came up with big wins. Notre Dame is a Playoff lock if it wins out, and almost guaranteed to not make it with another loss. Winning every game by one or by 30+ makes no difference. The same goes for Penn State. 12-1 and Big Ten champs is a Playoff bid for sure, no matter how much the Nittany Lions win by. Go 11-2 or don’t win the Big Ten? Penn State won’t be in, no matter how much it wins each game by.
Week 8 CFP Implications: Teams Remaining in Playoff contention
We have finally reached that great point of the year where it is easier to list those teams still alive in the Playoff race than it is to list those eliminated. We are only eliminating five teams this week, and no more than one from any conference. Wake Forest is officially eliminated after its third loss, as are Iowa and Texas Tech. Navy is officially eliminated after losing to UCF, though a 10-2 season could cause the selection committee some problems, as Navy could be in the mix for a New Years’ Six at-large bid.
AAC: UCF, USF
ACC: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami (Fl), N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Big 12: Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU
Big Ten: Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
Conference-USA: None
Independents: Notre Dame
MAC: None
MWC: None
Pac 12: Arizona, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
SEC: Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina
Sun Belt: None
Lastly, in the possibly biggest elimination of the year — and certainly the biggest since Florida State — we bid farewell to the USC Trojans. USC could still end the season as the Pac-12 champions at 11-2, but the Trojans are looking at a 3-2 record against ranked teams at absolute best. That just isn’t enough to get in as a two-loss conference champion.
Even with the Big 12’s struggles, USC would be behind a two-loss Oklahoma or even Iowa State. Moreover, USC would need Notre Dame to lose at least two more games, because after that thrashing a 10-2 Notre Dame would get a Playoff nod before USC. USC’s Playoff scenarios are so remote that it would require insane amounts of chaos to earn a Playoff bid. It’s too much, and therefore USC is eliminated.
AAC has stranglehold on Group of 5 bid
It is not hard to see the ways for the AAC to not get the Group of 5 bid to a New Year’s Six game. In fact, it’s very easy to list the situations where that can happen. That’s what makes it so unlikely the AAC is left out. There are now only four teams outside the AAC that have any chance. That’s it; just four. Let’s get Marshall out of the way to start. The Thundering Herd have a good record, but even at 12-1 their schedule is too weak. A two-loss Mountain West or three-loss AAC team would probably jump them.
So who are the four teams? Three of them are in the Mountain West. If Boise State, Colorado State, or San Diego State wins out, they’ll be ranked by the committee. Any of those teams at 11-2 will be in the 20-25 range. Toledo, if the Rockets win out, will be 12-1 with one decent loss and several solid wins. Toledo could approach the edge of the top 15. That’s it; just those four. (Okay, maybe Western Michigan could also be in the 20-25 range at 11-2, but that’s less guaranteed than the Mountain West schools, so we’ll leave it at four.)
What will it take for the AAC champion to be below the ranges mentioned above? There are two scenarios for that. The first is if a few upsets in the AAC West (say, a three-loss Houston or SMU winning the division) are followed by an upset in the conference championship game. The other involves USF and UCF suddenly imploding. That’s what the MAC or Mountain West would need to even have a chance at getting the New Year’s Six at-large. It’s incredibly unlikely, which is why the AAC has a stranglehold on the bid.
Big 12 narrowly avoids disaster
The Big 12 is always in the most precarious position when it comes to the CFP, due to its full round-robin schedule. The conference has skated along that edge just fine so far this season, even if there have been some bumps. Losses by Oklahoma or Oklahoma State this past week would have been devastating. Not only would it have essentially wiped both out of the Playoff picture, but it would have also forced TCU to go undefeated. Another loss by both Oklahoma schools would seriously devalue any TCU wins over them.
If both teams continue to struggle putting teams away (or even taking a lead, in Oklahoma State’s case), they’ll eventually lose. The Big 12 has avoided serious disaster from these two teams so far — the conference can survive exactly one upset. But it needs these teams to stay in their top 10-15 range. Another upset, and the conference will be in a 13-0 TCU or bust position. That’s not something anyone in the conference wants to need.
Week 9 Implications
If Week 8 was low on chaos, Week 9 looks to be full of it. If we had to circle one week before the season that could have huge impact, this would have been towards the top of the list. It’s not only because there are so many big games — this week has four battles between ranked teams. No, it’s the sheer number of top teams that have to travel that makes this week so interesting.
Penn State heads to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes, who want revenge for last year. The winner of this game has an inside track to the Big Ten East title, as well as to the Playoff. If Ohio State wins, a Big Ten pipe dream of two Playoff teams stays barely alive, especially if the game is close and Penn State doesn’t fall far. TCU is also on the road against Iowa State, which proved its mettle earlier this season by upsetting Oklahoma. The Cyclones can throw the whole Big 12 out of whack with a win, but a win would push Matt Campbell’s program forward overnight.
Oklahoma State travels to face West Virginia in another game that could be awful for the Big 12. The Mountaineers are still ranked, but don’t ask me how. (Fun fact: excluding Texas Tech, the teams West Virginia has beaten are a combined 3-25.) A win will help Oklahoma State, but a loss will take the Cowboys out of the Playoff race, and devalue TCU’s win over them (and Oklahoma’s potential win over them).
Washington State also takes to the road to face the resurgent Khalil Tate-led Arizona Wildcats. A Cougars loss would knock them out, but could actually help the Pac 12. A 10-2 Arizona team might be the conference’s most impressive resume coming out of the South, and therefore the most impressive victory for the North champion in the CCG.
Georgia will have to visit Jacksonville for a neutral-site rivalry game against Florida. Last, but not least, Notre Dame hosts N.C. State. A Wolfpack win would be huge for the ACC. Notre Dame winning would hurt the eventual ACC champion’s resume (unless that champion is Miami), but N.C. State winning will cement the winner of the N.C. State/Clemson game in Week 10 as a serious Playoff contender.
On top of that, USF plays its toughest game of the season so far, and Oklahoma, Clemson, USC, and Michigan State all have losable games. This week won’t be one to miss.
Brace yourself. Chaos is coming.
