Just past the midway mark of the season, the battle for NFL MVP has become a two-man race, and if the odds hold true, this year’s winner will be a first-timer.
The two favorites for MVP in the latest odds are Seattle’s Russell Wilson (+175) and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (+250). The next-closest player is Houston’s DeShaun Watson, all the way down at +600, with two-time winner Aaron Rodgers (+900) of Green Bay and Carolina running back Christian McCaffrey (+900) rounding out the top-five.
Where’s the Reigning Champ?
Reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes was the early favorite and only got shorter early in the season, throwing for at least 374 yards in each of his first three games while racking up 10 TD passes and zero INTs. But a knee injury has led to Mahomes both missing games and being less effective when he’s on the field.
More MVP awards likely await the Texas Tech product in the future, but it’s not going to be this year.
Why is Wilson Favored?
Russell Wilson is the favorite because he is Mr. Everything for the Seahawks. It’s hard to imagine where this team would be without him. He is top-six in the league in almost every meaningful QB category.
He sits first in TD passes, first in passer rating, second in QBR, fourth in passing yards, sixth in completion percentage, fifth in yards per attempt. And he’s done all that while tossing just two interceptions.
Wilson has also rushed for 256 yards (fifth-most among QBs) and three more touchdowns.
Winning MVP requires playing for a playoff team. No one has won the award on a non-playoff team in 45 years (OJ Simpson, 1973). The Seahawks are 8-2, which is good enough for the first Wild Card in the NFC and just half a game behind San Francisco in the NFC West. They have a home game against the Niners remaining and are heavy favorites to qualify for postseason play, one way or the other.
Could Jackson Supplant Wilson?
No other quarterback in the league can rival Wilson’s overall passing resume. Dak Prescott leads the league in QBR, but has an 18:9 TD-to-INT ratio. Mahomes is second in passer rating but has missed time and his play is trending down. Philip Rivers is first in yardage, but has tossed 10 back-breaking picks for a Chargers team that won’t be in the playoffs.
You can add Lamar Jackson to the list of also-rans when assessing which QB has been the most effective with his arm. But Jackson is so much more than just a passer, and that’s why he represents the most credible threat to Wilson’s MVP candidacy.
Baltimore’s sophomore pivot is currently on pace for over 1,200 rushing yards. That would shatter the single-season record for a quarterback, which is currently held by Michael Vick (1,039). He has exactly double the rushing yards of the next-best QB (702 vs 356 for Kyler Murray).
Add in the fact that he has been more than adequate throwing the ball (101.7 passer rating, 15 TD, 5 INT) and Jackson’s value to his team certainly starts to look comparable to Wilson.
Jackson has two other things going for him: (1) his Ravens have a 2.5 game lead in the AFC North and are shoo-ins to win the division; Wilson’s Seahawks have work to do to catch San Francisco; and (2) Jackson owns a head-to-head win over Wilson when Baltimore spanked Seattle 30-16 on the road.
Narratives are a big part of MVP awards. It’s voted on by AP writers, after all. If these two keep up their incredibly high levels of play, we may see that Week 7 game get referenced as a de facto “tiebreaker”.
