We could see an AFC Championship without the Chiefs, Bills, or Ravens

Before the start of the NFL season, we were pretty sure of one thing: either the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, or the Baltimore Ravens would be in the Super Bowl. Now, we’re not sure any of them will play for the AFC Championship.

In a league that legislates parity, it’s not terribly surprising to see one of these teams underachieve. However, it is shocking that three of the betting favorites to win the AFC might not even win their own division. The Chiefs (6-6) are behind the Denver Broncos (9-2) in the AFC West. The Bills (7-4) are behind the New England Patriots (10-2) in the AFC East. Finally, the Ravens (6-6) are one behind the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) in the AFC North.

What’s gone wrong? Let’s look at these supposed contenders.

Chiefs: As fortunate as Kansas City was last year (12-0 in one-score games) on its way to its third straight Super Bowl, it has been unlucky this season (1-6 in one-score games). The ball hasn’t bounced the Chiefs’ way. They have dropped 18 passes (tied for sixth-most entering this week). And they’re not getting the favorable calls. Patrick Mahomes is still playing at a high level (third in QBR), but he hasn’t been able to overcome all these issues. Plus, the defense hasn’t been as good. Kansas City won’t catch Denver. Even if the Chiefs make the playoffs, they don’t look like they can win consecutive postseason games. The streak of seven straight AFC Championship trips is likely over.

“I think we’re going to be watching playoff football without Kansas City playing in it. They’ve made too many mistakes too many times.”@DannyParkins is shocked by his own take on the Chiefs 👀 pic.twitter.com/EtGslSS6m6

— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) November 28, 2025

Bills: Among the three teams on this list, Buffalo has the best chance to get back to the AFC title game. Reigning MVP Josh Allen is still the hardest offensive player in the league to game plan against. He has passed for 18 touchdowns and rushed for 10 more. As good as and as durable as Allen is, every quarterback needs adequate pass protection. Last week, he was sacked a career-high 8 times in a 23-19 loss to the Houston Texans. The offensive line needs to get healthy in a hurry, and the Bills need to continue to feed tailback James Cook, who is second in the league in rushing (1,084 yards).

Ravens: Baltimore is very fortunate to still be in the running for the AFC North title. It got off to a 1-5 start, and Lamar Jackson missed three games with a hamstring injury. The Thanksgiving 32-14 defeat to the visiting Cincinnati Bengals was bad. Still, if the Steelers lose to the Bills, the Ravens will be tied for the division lead. Jackson hasn’t looked right over the past three games (0 TD passes, 3 interceptions). His struggles make you wonder why Derrick Henry only had 10 carries against the Bengals. What also hurts? The Ravens have the league’s fourth-most difficult remaining schedule, including Pittsburgh twice.

The NFL has been a weird place in 2025. If the season ended today, neither the Chiefs nor the Ravens would be in the playoffs. A lot can change in a month, but Kansas City, Buffalo, and Baltimore are running out of time to meet high expectations.