New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel and owner Robert Kraft at Vrabel's introductory press conference. Jan 13, 2025; Foxborough, MA, USA; Mike Vrabel (left) poses for a photo with New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft (right) after a press conference at Gillette Stadium to introduce him as the Patriots new head coach. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images

For a sport Americans are obsessed over, it’s shocking how little everyone knows about what it takes to be successful in the NFL.

We’re not just talking about fans. That includes the people within the business of professional football. Owners and front office personnel are bad at hiring coaches. We know this because the turnover rate is staggeringly high. There were seven openings this coaching cycle and eight in the previous one. That is a shocking amount of ineptitude in a league of 32 franchises.

On paper, it looks like the winners are the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots, who hired Ben Johnson and Mike Vrabel, respectively.

There’s no way they could fail, right?

Johnson and Vrabel were the most sought-after candidates and had their pick of jobs. Last year, Johnson boldly turned down the previously dysfunctional Washington Commanders. It’s a decision that, in hindsight, looks like a mistake, considering how good Jayden Daniels turned out as a rookie.

The bottom line: despite all the interviews, all the research, and all the resources that these multi-billion franchises have access to, no one knows how Johnson and Vrabel fare. In college football, if you hire Nick Saban, you’ll compete for a championship quickly because of the advantages he will have at his disposal. The NFL ensures competitive balance through the draft, free agency, and salary cap, preventing any team from gaining a substantial advantage.

One of the few advantages teams can have in a salary-cap sport is having a talented quarterback on a rookie contract. That allows you to devote financial resources elsewhere. Johnson and Vrabel will have that with second-year quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. But there are no sure things. We don’t know if Williams and Maye will be stars. We also don’t know if Johnson and Vrabel will be great at their new jobs.

Johnson could be the next Kyle Shanahan. He also could be the next Josh McDaniels. You never know. Johnson deserves all the credit in the world for coordinating an explosive offense for the best Detroit Lions team we’ve ever seen. However, it’s important to remember that general manager Brad Holmes assembled that roster. In Chicago, Johnson won’t have the stellar offensive line that made his schemes work. He will compete in the NFC North, which had three teams that won 11 or more games. The Lions, the Minnesota Vikings, and the Green Packers could all be good again next season. Good luck.

As for Vrabel, the narrative around him was that the Tennessee Titans made a huge mistake when it surprisingly fired him last January. He went 54-45 in six seasons, reaching the AFC Championship Game in his second season. Without Vrabel, the Titans went 3-14 last season, securing the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Vrabel is returning to familiar territory. He was a linebacker on three of New England’s Super Bowl championship teams. This seems like a can’t-miss fit.

However, nobody hired Vrabel when he was available last year. He took a “gap year” due to a lack of opportunities. Sure, Vrabel overachieved with the Titans. He also was upset as a No. 1 seed in a Divisional Round defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals. His record after that stunning loss was 13-21. Now, he’s expected to revive the Patriots, a franchise with considerably higher expectations than the Titans ever had. Vrabel will make New England competitive, but he must make it a championship contender for this hire to be successful. Good luck in a loaded AFC with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson.

Vrabel and Johnson have accomplished a lot in their careers so far. That doesn’t guarantee they will flourish in their new jobs.

About Michael Grant

Born in Jamaica. Grew up in New York City. Lives in Louisville, Ky. Sports writer. Not related to Ulysses S. Grant.