Within the tradition of the Super Bowl are other traditions—the celebrity singing of the National Anthem (this year, it’s Lady Gaga), the even more celebrity-studded halftime show, the very expensive debuts of innumerable commercials and, of course, the naming of the game’s Most Valuable Player, who will then go on to proclaim his intention to go to Disney World to celebrate.
There are bets to be placed on all of these littler Super Bowl moments, and when it comes to the game’s MVP, there are more than a few choices. Granted, not all of the players with listed odds to win the award have a real chance at doing so, but the Vegas odds for the potential MVP winner do help illuminate who could make the greatest impact in Sunday’s game.
Let’s take a look at the top candidates, by odds, and break down who really has the best chance to win Super Bowl 50 MVP.
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Danny Trevathan, Denver Broncos (200/1)
Broncos linebacker Danny Trevathan was his team’s leading tackler in the 2015 regular season, with 109 combined. That, his two interceptions (one for a score) and six passes defensed are reason enough for him to have long-shot, 200/1 odds to be the Super Bowl MVP. Again, it’s not impossible that Trevathan could make numerous key plays that lead to a Broncos victory, but he’s been quiet so far in the postseason, with one pass defensed and 14 combined tackles. He’s worth a mention in this discussion, to be sure, but there’s a reason he’s this much of an underdog for MVP.
Devin Funchess, Carolina Panthers
Graham Gano, Carolina Panthers
Brandon McManus, Denver Broncos
Aqib Talib, Denver Broncos
DeMarcus Ware, Denver Broncos
Kurt Coleman, Carolina Panthers (100/1)
100/1. This is the spot where the kickers land. This is also the opportune time to mention that no kicker has ever been Super Bowl MVP—not even in situations where a field goal was the final, deciding points in the game. Thus, the Panthers’ Graham Gano and the Broncos’ Brandon McManus have a steep hill to climb in order to walk away the game’s Most Valuable on Sunday. More than likely, should either Gano or McManus kick the game-winner, a key pass on the drive by either Newton or Manning will be credited as the true, big play of the drive. It’s cruel, and it’s true.
This is also where other key defensive players for both teams have landed. Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib, with his three regular-season interceptions (two for touchdowns) and 13 passes defensed, would be higher on this list if it weren’t Newton at quarterback for the Panthers. Newton has thrown only 10 interceptions all year (11 including one in the playoffs), which makes Talib’s odds to make the game’s biggest and most important plays shrink considerably.
DeMarcus Ware (pictured above), meanwhile, is one of the key pass-rushers in Denver’s defense. But with so much attention paid fellow linebacker Miller, and Miller the perceived “star” of the defensive front, Ware will have to have a career game to be the MVP. Still, given the Broncos’ reliance on their pass-rush and the potential for it to finally ground Newton, Ware has a better chance of emerging as Super Bowl MVP than Talib.
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Panthers receiver Devin Funchess had a strong rookie season, given the circumstances—being thrown from the pan into the fire, thanks to injuries to Stephen Hill and Kelvin Benjamin. He caught 31 passes for 473 yards and five scores in the regular season and another three catches for 33 yards and a score in the postseason. But, even more so than Ginn, Olsen and Brown, if Funchess has a breakout Super Bowl performance, that credit will go to Newton. There’s simply no way a rookie wideout is going to win that award.
Panthers safety Kurt Coleman (pictured above) gets a mention at the 100/1 tier primarily because of his regular season, in which he had seven interceptions (and one for a touchdown) and nine passes defensed. Like any member of either team’s secondary, he has a shot at the MVP honors simply because he is capable of earning a decisive turnover or two. But with only two safeties in Super Bowl history winning the award (most recently, Dexter Jackson in 2003), it’s hard to see his odds being any higher than this.
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Ronnie Hillman, Denver Broncos
Owen Daniels, Denver Broncos (50/1)
With the Broncos needing to lean on their run game, no list of MVP potentials could be without back Ronnie Hillman. But Hillman (pictured above) has taken a postseason back seat to CJ Anderson, with just 27 playoff carries netting him 54 yards, or two yards per carry. With a per-carry average like that, Hillman may not have much luck against Carolina’s defense, making him a long, long shot for MVP honors alongside teammate tight end Owen Daniels.
Daniels could prove to be Manning’s security blanket on Sunday, though it will be tough. As Football Outsiders points out, the Panthers’ defense ranks No. 1 against tight ends, allowing them an average of 49.4 receiving yards per game. If Daniels can find any weaknesses to exploit, that could help his MVP stock rise. But again, there’s the shadow of the quarterback looming over any gains Daniels makes.
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Josh Norman, Carolina Panthers
Corey Brown, Carolina Panthers (40/1)
Carolina cornerback Josh Norman (pictured above) clearly must make an appearance in the Super Bowl MVP odds, even if he’s not favored to win it. He’s been a high-profile member of the team’s defense all year, known not only for his ability to defend passes and intercept quarterbacks but also for his theatrical approach to playing the game, taking on different movie hero personas based on the matchup he’s facing.
But Norman has been relatively quiet in the postseason after racking up 18 passes defensed, four interceptions (two for scores), three forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries in the regular season. He hasn’t had any postseason interceptions, though he did have one sack. That’s not to say Norman won’t be picking off Manning on Sunday, nor that said interception, should it occur, won’t lead him to MVP honors. It just doesn’t seem likely unless it’s the game-changing play—and even then, it could still be a long shot. After all, Patriots corner Malcolm Butler made the game-deciding interception to close out last year’s Super Bowl, and Tom Brady was still named MVP.
Corey Brown, meanwhile, had a relatively mundane regular season, with 31 catches for 447 yards and four scores, but had an impressive postseason, with 125 yards (and an 86-yard score) on a mere six receptions. Brown’s speed and big-play ability were on display with that long score, which is likely the main reason he is at 40/1 MVP odds rather than 100/1 or worse. But, as noted, the successes of receivers in the Super Bowl are often reflected back on their quarterbacks. Any big day Brown has is a big day for Newton.
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Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
Luke Kuechly, Carolina Panthers
Von Miller, Denver Broncos
Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos
Ted Ginn Jr., Carolina Panthers (25/1)
The Big Two of Denver’s receivers, Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, both find themselves in the 25/1 group here, and while it seems like a head-scratcher at first, it does make sense—if either of these two receivers have a big game, that means that Manning is on-target, locked in and not making major errors. Thus, any good performance by either transfers to Manning, much as would be the case for Ted Ginn, Jr. and Newton. The cruel reality of the Super Bowl MVP award is that when a receiver has a big game, the credit goes to the quarterback—that’s why 27 quarterbacks have won the award, but just six receivers.
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The 25/1 odds also mark the best odds for defensive players on the MVP-potentials list, and it’s not surprising that the Panthers’ Luke Kuechly (pictured above, on fire) and the Broncos’ Von Miller (also pictured above) are the two listed. Kuechly and Miller have been their respective teams’ top defensive players this year—Miller for his pass-rushing, which produced 11 sacks in the regular season and 2.5 so far in the playoffs, and Kuechly for his coverage skills, which resulted in four interceptions and 10 passes defensed in the regular season and two interceptions (one returned for a touchdown) in the postseason.
As such, both Kuechly and Miller could have major impacts on the outcome of Sunday’s game. Another Kuechly pick-six, this time of Manning, could earn him the MVP nod if it’s the deciding scoring play of the game. And Miller harassing Newton, to the point where Newton is sacked multiple times, could also produce an MVP-caliber performance. Between the two, though, Kuechly has the better shot, if only because interceptions in the Super Bowl just feel flashier than sacks.
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C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos (20/1)
Broncos running back C.J. Anderson was not his team’s leading rusher in 2015—that was Ronnie Hillman. Anderson rushed 152 times in the regular season, for 720 yards and five scores. But he was a major factor during the postseason, taking the hot hand all the way to 144 yards rushing and a touchdown on his 31 carries. And, based on these odds, at least Vegas believes Anderson will remain Denver’s hot hand on Sunday.
The importance of the run game to Manning’s and thus Denver’s success is obvious. It is the run game through which everything else flows, and when it does so effectively, it leads to wins. A successful run game, or at least the threat of one, helps Manning immensely—as Pro Football Focus pointed out, when Manning uses play-action (which requires a commitment to the run, whether it’s gaining yards or not), his passer rating improves by 25 points and his yards per attempt by over three.
When using play action Peyton Manning's passer rating jumps 25 points (62.8 to 87.8) + YPA soars from 6.1 to 9.4. #Broncos need the run game
— PFF (@PFF) February 1, 2016
Anderson, though, will have to deal with a Panthers defense nearly as good against the run as Denver’s—and one likely keyed into the Broncos’ play-action prowess, which means a focus on shutting down the run will begin early in the game. Anderson has an outside shot at the MVP, but it will take a performance he may not be capable of against the Carolina defense. Frankly, if someone is looking at taking a chance on a player with long odds, the longer odds above seem more plausible.
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Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers (18/1)
Panthers tight end Greg Olsen has been an unsung hero of the team’s 2015 season. He was the Panthers’ leading receiver in the regular season, with 77 catches on 123 targets for 1,104 yards and seven scores. He led his team in yards after the catch, with 364 and had 52 first downs. He also added another touchdown during the postseason. In a year where the Panthers’ receiving corps was expected to be a weakness, Olsen stepped up, catching passes all over the field, including deep balls—his 20 receptions of 20-plus yards were just two fewer than the league-leading tight end Rob Gronkowski.
But a tight end has never been named Super Bowl MVP. And in light of the Newton-centric season we’ve already experienced, any big plays made by Olsen on Sunday will likely transfer over to Newton’s MVP bid rather than boost Olsen’s chances of being the first tight end to ever be the biggest difference-maker in a Super Bowl.
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Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers (15/1)
A running back for Super Bowl MVP? It hasn’t happened since 1998, when Terrell Davis won it with the Denver Broncos. But it’s not out of the question that the Panthers’ Jonathan Stewart could win it this year. Stewart was the leading running back on a team that led the NFL in rushing attempts in 2015, notching 242 carries for 989 yards and six scores this season. And he’s the leading rusher in the postseason as well, with 38 carries for 189 yards and two scores.
The Panthers have a run-first offense that will be tested by the top-three rushing defense of the Broncos. And if Stewart can still have a banner day against them—to the point where he scores a decisive touchdown and amasses 100-plus yards—he’ll certainly be in MVP consideration. He will just need to make sure his star isn’t outshined by Newton’s; Stewart can have the yards and a score, but if Newton makes a diving leap into the end zone in a Panthers’ win, we all know who will be getting the MVP award (a.k.a. not Stewart).
Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos (7/2)
Conversely, if the Broncos win, that makes quarterback Peyton Manning a real contender for Super Bowl MVP. The sure-thing Hall of Famer is likely making his last appearance on a football field in a playing capacity on Sunday and there would be nothing more feel-good about it than handing him the game’s highest individual honor. But, it must be noted that Manning’s 2015 didn’t go so well, with 17 interceptions thrown to nine touchdowns.Those turnover woes disappeared in the playoffs so far, but it’s possible that Carolina’s ball-hawking defense brings them back to the forefront.
And there’s also the Denver defense to consider, which has really been the team’s reason for sustained and dominant winning. Manning hasn’t been the reason, a rarity in his career. But none of that will matter if the Broncos defeat the Panthers thanks to a final Manning touchdown pass. That score would easily seal his MVP status. Still, it’s hard to believe, given the year he had, that Manning is the second-favorite to win MVP of the Super Bowl, even with the award’s weight given to quarterbacks.
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (5/7)
On Saturday night, it is a given that Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton will be named the Associated Press’ NFL MVP for the 2015 season. That alone likely helps him have the greatest odds to be the Super Bowl MVP, as well. And it also reflects the amazing season he’s had, with 35 passing and 10 rushing touchdowns to 10 interceptions and carrying his team on his back to the tune of a 15-1 regular-season record.
But Newton’s Super Bowl MVP odds rest on his team winning. If the Panthers lose, that means Denver’s vaunted defense found a way to stop the seemingly unstoppable quarterback. But if Carolina wins, that’s likely a result of SuperCam not succumbing to the Broncos’ defensive Kryptonite. Should that be the case, Newton will be a lock for MVP.
The Field (10/1)
There are 11 Broncos and 10 Panthers listed on the Vegas odds for MVP, per VegasInsider and the WestGate Super Book, but the field—all 85 remaining players who will suit up for Super Bowl 50—are set at 10/1 odds. There’s a chance Mike Tolbert or Fozzy Whittaker has an amazing game and scores four times to win Super Bowl MVP, or Brock Osweiler comes off the bench to lead Denver to the incomprehensible victory, but more than likely, the MVP is coming from that list of names.
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Final Verdict
With the 2015 season being The Year of Newton and Super Bowl 50 more than likely Manning’s final professional game, it seems almost impossible that anyone other than the winning team’s quarterback earns the MVP on Sunday. There are a few exceptions: Kuechly with a pick-six, Miller with a five-sack day, Thomas with a toe-tap touchdown to win or Stewart rushing for 130 yards and a pair of scores could all be scales-tipping plays to prevent yet another quarterback from winning the car, the trophy and the trip to Disney World.
But, if we’re talking odds and if we’re talking hype, then Newton or Manning seem to be the safest bets to be Super Bowl 50’s Most Valuable Player. It’s one of the most glaring examples in the league of how a quarterback gets either all the credit or all the blame for a game’s outcome, and the position most suited to being given the Super Bowl’s highest individual honor.
