Six weeks ago, Deshaun Watson wasn’t even the Houston Texans’ starting quarterback, despite the fact Houston had few good options for that role. Head coach Bill O’Brien inexplicably gave tailor-made-career-backup Tom Savage the starting nod to kick off the regular season, but Watson took over quickly. And now, in mid-October, it’s fair to wonder if he’s in the process of putting together the best rookie passing season in NFL history.
Take Watson’s numbers from the first six weeks of the season and prorate them for 16 games and this is what you get: 61.5 %, 40 TD, 13 INT, 3458 YDS, 7.5 YPA, 101.1 passer rating.
Now, on one hand, Watson is taking the league by surprise and defensive coordinators will have a chance to adjust to him in order to cool him off. This hot streak might not be sustainable. But on the other hand, Watson actually performed at a mediocre level in his first three appearances and the trajectory of his numbers actually indicates they could rise.
If he were to maintain his pace from the last three weeks over the course of Houston’s final 10 games, Watson’s rookie season would look like this: 61.6%, 55 TD, 11 INT, 3860 YDS, 7.9 YPA, 111.3 passer rating.
.@deshaunwatson + @Will_Fuller7 = @houstontexans TD! #Texans https://t.co/69uThPxay4
— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2017
We’re probably looking at something better than the first line of numbers and worse than the second line. But even the first line would make him the second-highest-rated rookie passer in NFL history, behind only Dak Prescott of the Cowboys (104.9 in 2016). The second line would give him the 13th-highest passer rating in league history.
And that’s without even considering his impact as a runner. Watson has already scored two touchdowns on the ground, and he leads all NFL quarterbacks with 202 rushing yards. If he puts up those aforementioned passing numbers and then tacks on a handful of rushing touchdowns and 500-plus rushing yards, it’ll be hard to argue that any rookie signal-caller has been better (Prescott rushed for six touchdowns but “only” 282 yards last season).
And the big difference is Watson isn’t dinking and dunking. He’s one of only four quarterbacks who have completed nine or more passes of 30-plus yards (the much more conservative Prescott had just 13 all of last season). Only Tom Brady and Alex Smith have completed more deep passes, and nobody has completed more deep touchdown passes (he’s got five, while Smith, Brady, Carson Palmer and Carson Wentz have four apiece).
So yeah, Watson is on track to do more than any other rookie quarterback in league history. And he’s doing it behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines, and in spite of the fact his defense hasn’t been close to as good as it was last year.
The line could come around, though, especially if stalwart left tackle Duane Brown eventually ends his holdout. And that D has too much talent to continue to struggle. If or when all of those pieces come together, you wonder if Watson and the Texans might have enough magic to finally make a Super Bowl run.
A rookie quarterback has never led his team to a Super Bowl, but maybe that’s overdue. And Watson might be the ideal guy to buck that trend.
“Every time we step on the field, we want to score,” wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins said this week, per the Houston Chronicle. “If we don’t, we’re disappointed. We don’t settle for three. We know with the ball in No. 4’s hands, anything’s possible.”
Anything?
