In the NFL, so much of your success is dependent on being in the right circumstances. Here are five players selected in the 2023 NFL Draft that are in the best position to succeed in their first year:
5. Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
College: USC
Drafted: No. 23 overall
If Jordan Addison’s measurables were better, he would have been drafted higher. He has a slight frame at 5-foot-11, 170 pounds, and an unofficial 40-yard-dash time at the scouting combine was “only” 4.55 (He later officially clocked in at 4.49) Considering his size, you might expect him to display more explosiveness. But that seems like an overreaction. Addison was productive in college and that should translate to the pros.
Addison takes over the spot vacated by Adam Thielen, who was a salary-cap cut. He will also play opposite Justin Jefferson. Defenses will roll their coverage toward Jefferson, leaving the rookie several chances to make huge plays. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell needs Addison to produce for Minnesota to repeat as the NFC North champion.
4. Will Anderson Jr., LB, Houston Texans
College: Alabama
Drafted: No. 3 overall
NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah called Will Anderson Jr. the safest pick in this draft. The Texans were so sold on Anderson that they traded up to select the pass-rusher. Anderson will play for rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans, the former San Francisco defensive coordinator. Ryans coached defensive end Nick Bosa, who led the league in sacks (18.5). Expect him to turn Anderson loose.
Houston plays in a division with a lot of bad offensive lines. According to ESPN, the Indianapolis Colts, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Tennessee Titans ranked No. 32, No. 31, and No. 26 respectively last year in pass-block win rate. The Colts and Titans could also start rookie quarterbacks. That means Anderson should feast and put up big numbers early.
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
College: Ohio State
Drafted: No. 20 overall
Seattle Seahawks rarely draft wide receivers this early. It’s only the third time in franchise history that they’ve taken one in the first round and the first time since Koren Robinson in 2001. Pete Carroll prefers the running game, but the front office made a wise decision by adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Smith-Njigba will be catching passes from a veteran quarterback in Geno Smith, who’s coming off a career-best season. He’ll also be surrounded by receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet (selected in the second round of this draft). This should make his transition easy. Smith-Njigba will have plenty of opportunities to make big plays from the slot. If he plays up to his potential, Seattle’s skill players might rival San Francisco for best in the NFC West.
2. Jalen Carter, DT, Philadelphia Eagles
College: Georgia
Drafted: No. 9 overall
It’s rare when the top defensive prospect goes to the defending conference champion. Carter is in an ideal spot. He landed with a team that already has a great defense and usually plays with the lead. Carter is more talented than last year’s top overall pick Travon Walker, his former Georgia teammate. And he should benefit from a superior supporting cast.
There are concerns. Carter pleaded no contest to misdemeanor charges of reckless driving and racing and was sentenced to probation last month. The charges were connected with a car crash that killed Georgia’s Devin Willock and a Georgia football staffer. That’s why Carter wasn’t selected earlier in the draft. Assuming he avoids trouble, he should be a contender for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
1. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
College: Texas
Drafted: No. 8 overall
Using a high first-round pick on the most disposable position in the NFL is generally a bad idea. Running backs have a limited amount of mileage before they sharply decline. Plus, you can always find a decent one in later rounds. That said, running backs can also easily make an immediate impact. They don’t have to know the entire playbook to fit into an offense.
By most accounts, Robinson is the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley, who was second in the league in rushing with 1,307 yards as a rookie. He’s also going to a head coach who loves to run. Arthur Smith’s Falcons led the NFL in rushing attempts (559) and were third in rushing yards (2,718). Expect a heavy load of Robinson and Tyler Allgeier this fall.
