If you decided to zone out last weekend with mindless entertainment, perhaps you watched Holiday Touchdown: A Chiefs Love Story. In the Hallmark Channel movie, a family believes their good-luck charm— a Chiefs hat—is responsible for the franchise’s success.
That explanation seems as plausible as any this year.
Kansas City’s season of living fortunately continues to astound. It’s hard to remember the last time we’ve seen a team find more unlikely and sometimes downright kooky ways to victory. Blocked kicks, botched snaps, hocus pocus. The Chiefs have won five games decided on the final play.
It has gotten to the point where we wouldn’t be surprised if a last-second field goal by Harrison Butker on crutches bounced off a falling satellite and through the uprights to send the Chiefs to the Super Bowl. In any sport, luck plays a significant factor, and having Patrick Mahomes tilts the odds in your favor. However, Kansas City improbably keeps getting a royal flush when it needs it most.
The Chiefs win by a botched snap on the Raiders.
— Savage (@SavageSports_) November 29, 2024
Every week it gets dumber and dumber.
pic.twitter.com/e2RYxDdYt2
Since wins and losses can be random, the average scoring margin can be a better indicator of how good a team is. The Chiefs are No. 11 (+4.5) in the league and third in the AFC West behind the Los Angeles Chargers (+6.0) and the Denver Broncos (+5.5). By contrast, the Chiefs were fifth in average scoring margin (+5.2) last season. What does this all mean? These Chiefs probably should have at least two more losses. And, yet, they’re in position to grab the conference’s No. 1 overall seed.
If you woke up from a five-year coma and didn’t know anything about Kansas City’s successful run, you would call them frauds. This team suddenly can’t protect Mahomes because their offensive tackles are turnstiles. The once-vaunted defense hasn’t been the same since cornerback Jaylen Watson’s season-ending injury (broken fibula and tibia) in October. The Chiefs’ wide receivers have been decimated by injuries, and Mahomes is having difficulty consistently connecting with rookie wideout Xavier Worthy.
The counter-argument would be that the Chiefs overcame several problems to win the Super Bowl last season. Fair enough. However, those issues (dropped passes, mental mistakes) felt correctable. And the Chiefs defense was one of the best in the league. After all, they found a way to win at the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game without scoring a point in the second half.
“AAAAAAAAAOOOOOOHHHH!!!! BLOCKED!!! THE CHIEFS HAVE WON!!! THE CHIEFS HAVE WON!!! – Kevin Harlan on the call as KC blocks a Denver FG at the buzzer. pic.twitter.com/DOZn74uT4o
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) November 10, 2024
Over the past few weeks, Kansas City has struggled to defeat two of the worst teams in the league: the Carolina Panthers and the Las Vegas Raiders. This version of the Chiefs looks like a house of cards on the verge of collapse. Why should anyone believe they can pull off an unprecedented Super Bowl three-peat?
There are reasons for optimism.
The Chiefs are getting healthier. Running back Isiah Pacheco and defensive end Charles Omenihu returned to the lineup last week after being out due to injuries. They also figure to get back wide receiver Hollywood Brown before the playoffs. Brown could have a huge impact on the passing attack. Assuming he plays up to his usual standards, that gives Kansas two solid starting receivers (Brown and DeAndre Hopkins) and lessens the pressure on Worthy.
Mahomes has stopped turning over the ball. He has only two interceptions in the past five games. Still, the Chiefs have played a grueling stretch of 18 playoff games since 2018. There’s a reason why no team has ever pulled off a three-peat in the Super Bowl era.
The league legislates parity. Eventually, the loss of talent, the loss of high draft picks, and mental fatigue takes a toll. If Tom Brady couldn’t pull off a three-peat, how can we expect the Mahomes and the Chiefs to do the same?
The law of averages dictates that Kansas City’s luck will run out. Unless, of course, the Chiefs have made some Faustian bargain. Or perhaps, there really is a Hallmark movie magic hat.
