The NFL’s top two MVP candidates will go head to head Sunday in Atlanta, with a trip to Super Bowl LI on the line.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan had one of the best statistical seasons in NFL history, finishing with the NFL’s highest qualified yards-per-attempt average (9.3) this century and the fifth-highest qualified passer rating of all time.
But Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was just as good as Ryan down the stretch, despite arguably a lot less support, carrying Green Bay on an eight-game do-or-die winning streak ever since declaring that his then-struggling team could “run the table.”
When the two met in the regular season, Atlanta won a 33-32 shootout at home, thanks to a last-minute Ryan touchdown pass. It marked the first time in NFL history in which two quarterbacks posted 125-plus passer ratings with zero turnovers on 35-plus pass attempts in the same game.
Don’t be surprised if this one is just as dramatic, and even more historic.
Trends
** The Falcons have one turnover and 11 takeaways in their last five games, all wins. They’ve outscored their opponents by an average margin of 38-19 in those games.
** The Packers have one turnover and 16 takeaways in their last six games, all wins. They’ve outscored their opponents by an average margin of 35-22 in those games.
10 things you need to know
https://twitter.com/NFLBandwagon/status/792870549747798016
1. About that regular-season meeting…
The Packers didn’t have running back Ty Montgomery or any of their top three cornerbacks for that Week 8 matchup, and Pro Bowl linebacker Clay Matthews was also out. The cornerback corps is still less than 100 percent without Sam Shields and with Quinten Rollins and Damarious Randall both hurting, but it’s much healthier now. The Atlanta loss came during a stretch in which they surrendered 30-plus points in four straight games, but they’ve given up just 19.5 points per game since then. And Montgomery has given the running game a boost, too.
2. Jordy Watch, 2017
The Packers did, however, have a healthy Jordy Nelson then. Rodgers’ top weapon had 94 yards and a touchdown that day, and he got better from there. Nelson led the league in catches, receiving yards and touchdown receptions during the final eight weeks of the regular season, but he has missed the majority of the playoffs with broken ribs. For what it’s worth, the Packers were held scoreless in four series with Nelson in the wild-card playoffs, and they’ve scored on 12 of their 19 possessions since then. That’s 72 points in seven quarters without Nelson. He’ll be missed if he can’t suit up Sunday, but that doesn’t mean the Packers can’t still explode on offense.
3. More injuries!
In other Packers injury news — you could write a book on the topic — safety Morgan Burnett missed most of Sunday’s game due to a thigh injury. His replacement is an undrafted rookie named Kentrell Brice, who struggled badly in his only start this season. The versatile Burnett does a little bit of everything, and he had a great second half to the season. They really need him against Atlanta’s No. 1 scoring offense.
4. Hot vs. hot
Yes, Rodgers is smoking hot. Dude played one of the best games of his career against Dallas, and his top-notch play goes well beyond the numbers (36 touchdowns and four interceptions in his last 13 games). But might he have met his match in Ryan? Or at least something close? If we’re looking at the last five games only, Ryan actually has a statistical edge.
Last 5 games:
Matt Ryan
PPG: 38.0
74.5%
14 TD, 0 INT
9.4 YPA
132.9 ratingAaron Rodgers
PPG: 34.2
66.5%
14 TD, 1 INT
8.5 YPA
115.0 rating— Brad Gagnon (@Brad_Gagnon) January 16, 2017
5. Atlanta’s two-headed monster
It helps that Ryan has more support from his running game and a healthier receiving corps and defense, but this isn’t about the MVP race. Fact is, Ryan’s been more productive. And while Julio Jones is dealing with a foot injury, that’s nothing new and it shouldn’t be a big factor Sunday.
The Green Bay running game has gotten better with Montgomery, but it still lacks consistency. Meanwhile, the Falcons have one of the best running back duos in the NFL. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combined for 102 yards on 25 carries in the divisional round against a Seattle defense that surrendered a league-low 3.4 yards per carry during the regular season, and those two averaged a combined 6.3 yards per carry during the final three weeks of the regular season.
Highest YPA, final 3 weeks of the reg. season:
1. Ty Montgomery – 6.9
2. Zeke Elliott – 6.8
3. Devonta Freeman – 6.4
4. Tevin Coleman – 6.2— Brad Gagnon (@Brad_Gagnon) January 16, 2017
6. Green Bay’s three-headed something
Yes, that’s Packers running back Ty Montgomery at the top of that list, thanks mainly to a huge first three quarters in Week 15 against Chicago. Dating back to the third quarter of that Bears game, he’s averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Christine Michael and fullback Aaron Ripkowski have shown flashes, so it’ll be interesting to see if they give those guys some extra work against a defense that surrendered 4.5 yards per rush this season.
7. Sweet, sweet home-field advantage
The Falcons are also of course at home, where they struggled a bit earlier in the year (losing close games to Tampa Bay, San Diego and Kansas City), but where they’ve now won five of their last six. In their last three home games, they’ve gone 3-0 with 38.3 points per outing.
8. Sweet, sweet home-field advantage (part 2)
Meanwhile, the Packers blew an 18-point lead in Dallas Sunday and a 17-point lead in Chicago in December, and they haven’t really played a clean road game since dominating the Eagles in November. Not a huge sample, but might those near-chokes have to do with the fact Green Bay lacks a typical running game? Montgomery had just nine yards on his last six carries that day against the Bears, and he and Ripkowski ran the ball just 15 times despite that big lead in Dallas. No Green Bay lead will be safe in the final game at the Georgia Dome.
All-Pro ✔️
Pro-Bowl ✔️
NFL Sack Title ✔️Check out Vic Beasley's Top 10 Plays of the Season! https://t.co/3hy4VE9oQp
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) January 13, 2017
9. The Vic factor
If the Packers do become one-dimensional, they could be in big trouble. As good as Rodgers’ pass protection has been — and as good as his footwork is — he’s still been sacked eight times in two playoff games. Falcons defensive player of the year candidate Vic Beasley had 14.5 sacks and six forced fumbles in the last 12 weeks of the regular season, and he’s been relatively well supported by Brooks Reed, Jonathan Babineaux and Dwight Freeney.
10. Watch out, Matty Ice
Both quarterbacks have been fantastic under pressure all season, but Ryan has been under duress a little more often than Rodgers. Facing the league’s hottest team and trying to establish his legacy in front of the home crowd, he could be dealing with plenty of figurative pressure as well. With Nick Perry and Clay Matthews healthy and Julius Peppers, Mike Daniels, Jake Ryan, Kenny Clark and Joe Thomas all playing well, the Packers have a hell of a front seven right now. If this gets tight, that could spell trouble for Ryan, who in the last four years has thrown 43 percent of his interceptions in the fourth quarter.
Prediction
The Packers are slowly getting healthier (Nelson and Rollins both could play, and Burnett hasn’t been ruled out), and the defense is slightly less vulnerable (the Falcons still ranked 28th against the pass and 27th in terms of points allowed). They’re under less pressure than Atlanta, too, and I can’t go against Rodgers right now. So while I think it’ll be a close game between two relatively evenly matched teams, I think Green Bay comes through late.
