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By Michael Grant on

Get ready for what could be the wildest NFL playoffs in years.

There is no dominant team. There is no Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Joe Burrow. There is no reason to feel 100 percent confident about what will happen. Everyone has flaws.

Despite the league’s emphasis on parity, major postseason surprises are rare. The last time a No. 1 seed didn’t reach the Super Bowl was in February 2022, when the Los Angeles Rams (4) beat the Cincinnati Bengals (4). The lowest-seeded teams to win the Super Bowl? The 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers (6) and the 2010 Green Bay Packers (6). The team with the worst record to win it all was the 2011 New York Giants (9-7).

This year seems different.

Would you be shocked if any six of the seven teams made it to at least the AFC Championship? Would you be surprised if any of those seven teams lost their first playoff game?

The top-seeded Denver Broncos (14-3) have been very fortunate, going 11-2 in one-possession games. They should have lost at home to the New York Giants (4-13) but escaped with an improbable 33-32 win. The No. 2-seeded New England Patriots (14-3) have the highest scoring margin in the conference (+10.0) but have also benefited from the league’s easiest schedule. They have beaten only one team with a winning record (the Buffalo Bills, 23-20, in October).

The Bills (11-5) might be the most dangerous No. 6 seed in league history. Josh Allen gives Buffalo a puncher’s chance. In 13 career playoff games, he has 25 touchdown passes and four interceptions, with a 101.7 passer rating. The Bills’ Achilles’ heel is their fifth-worst rushing defense (136.2 yards allowed per game).

The Jacksonville Jaguars, L.A. Chargers, and Houston Texans all have a shot. (No, not you, Pittsburgh Steelers.)

Would you be shocked if any five of the seven teams made it to at least the NFC Championship? Would you be surprised if any of those five teams were eliminated in their first playoff game?

The top-seeded Seattle Seahawks (13-3) have the highest scoring margin in the NFL (+11.2). Their offense has also turned the ball over 28 times, second-worst in the league. Nobody trusts Sam Darnold because everyone remembers how it ended for him with the Minnesota Vikings this time last year. The No. 2-seeded Chicago Bears (11-6) have been a nice story, but their defense is so turnover-reliant (a league-best 33 forced turnovers). What happens if they don’t get interceptions or recover fumbles?

You could argue that the No. 6-seeded Rams (12-5) are the best team in the conference. Their losses are by a total of 17 points combined, and two have been extremely fluky. Los Angeles should have beaten the Philadelphia Eagles but suffered a blocked punt returned for a touchdown in a 33-26 setback. They also squandered a 16-point fourth-quarter lead against the Seahawks, undone by a bizarre two-point conversion.

The defending champion Eagles and the injury-plagued San Francisco 49ers have a shot. (No, not you, Green Bay Packers or Carolina Panthers.)

If you’re a fan of a long-suffering fan base, take heart. This is the year to win the Super Bowl. Your team had better take advantage now, because Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow might all be back in the postseason next year.

About Michael Grant

Born in Jamaica. Grew up in New York City. Lives in Louisville, Ky. Sports writer. Not related to Ulysses S. Grant.

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