The Titans lost to the Ravens today, in large part due to Lamar Jackson doing Lamar Jackson things.
Like, say, this awesome touchdown run:
LAMAR JACKSON. 49 YARDS. TOUCHDOWN. #RavensFlock @lj_era8
📺: #BALvsTEN on ESPN/ABC
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/ENQWXuJbe8 pic.twitter.com/yZNUr2CWFK— NFL (@NFL) January 10, 2021
(Okay, let’s look at that from more angles, because it’s ridiculous.)
Catch me if you can. @lj_era8#RavensFlock #SuperWildCard
📺: #BALvsTEN on ESPN/ABC
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/ENQWXuJbe8 pic.twitter.com/gZse3dafmz— NFL (@NFL) January 10, 2021
The Titans, though, were very much in the game, thanks to a strong start and some stout defense. Still, down 17-13 in the fourth quarter, and facing a short yardage fourth down decision in Baltimore territory, Titans coach Mike Vrabel elected to…punt.
That’s bad! Here’s how ESPN’s analytics-focused channel reacted live to the call. Spoiler: disbelief!
Here's the ESPN + room when the Titans chose not to punt and the analytics discussion, speechless Marcus Spears is something pic.twitter.com/12o47O1XbA
— CJ Fogler account may or may not be notable (@cjzero) January 10, 2021
Those weren’t the only numbers that backed that up, though:
TEN decided to punt to BAL from the BAL 40 on 4th & 2 with 10:06 remaining in the 4th while losing 13 to 17.
With a Surrender Index of 138.87, this punt ranks at the 100th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2020 season, and the 99.92nd percentile of all punts since 2009.
— Surrender Index (@surrender_index) January 10, 2021
The Titans ended up giving up another field goal, and while they had the ball with a chance to score, Ryan Tannehill threw an unfortunate tipped-ball interception.
MARCUS PETERS. CLUTCH.
📺: #BALvsTEN on ESPN/ABC
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/ENQWXuJbe8 pic.twitter.com/qukO2uUh14— NFL (@NFL) January 10, 2021
While the Titans could have stopped them and gotten the ball back, they, well, didn’t do that.
Lamar is taking this into his own hands. @lj_era8 #RavensFlock
📺: #BALvsTEN on ESPN/ABC
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/ENQWXuJbe8 pic.twitter.com/XzUIaMkdsW— NFL (@NFL) January 10, 2021
After the game, though, a lot of the discourse centered on Vrabel’s decision, and his explanation wasn’t exactly satisfactory.
Here's Mike Vrabel's explanation for punting, it's what you expect pic.twitter.com/nxyW74EL9m
— CJ Fogler account may or may not be notable (@cjzero) January 10, 2021
At some point coaches will figure out the risk-reward on plays like this, and actually take the right chances at the right times. But that day wasn’t today, and Tennessee lost a big chunk of win probability in their most important game of the season.
