Six seasons ago, the Green Bay Packers’ postseason hopes looked rather bleak with two weeks to go after a 31-27 loss in New England. Head coach Mike McCarthy’s crew needed to win its final two contests to guarantee itself another game in mid-January, with the New York Giants (9-5) and Chicago Bears (10-4) still looming on the schedule.
But what skeptics failed to recognize was Aaron Rodgers hadn’t yet reached his premier level of play. In the Packers’ final two games of 2016, he weaved together 633 yards, five touchdowns and just one interception, helping Green Bay bundle up two victories, along with the last wild-card birth in the NFC. That fueled the beginning of an improbable run. The Packers’ quarterback drove his team to six straight wins overall, delivering the first Lombardi Trophy Green Bay had seen in 14 seasons.
Jumping to the present day, the Packers were in a similar position following five losses in their previous six contests. However, with three consecutive victories, the former Discount Double Check star and his teammates have put themselves back into the NFC playoff conversation. How far can the surge carry Green Bay (7-6), who’s one game back of a wild-card spot and two behind the Detroit Lions (9-4) in the NFC North? Let’s take a look at the numbers.
Before the trio of wins, the Packers’ worst aspect was actually their defense. Heading into Week 12, Green Bay ranked No. 27 in the NFL in scoring defense, yielding 27.3 points per contest. Moreover, its last four opponents during that span (Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans and Washington Redskins) bulldozed the underwhelming unit for 38.2 points per game.
Green Bay’s misery struck considerably harder in Nashville, Tennessee, as defensive coordinator Dom Capers’ group allowed three 50-yard plays to the Titans in the final frame. No defense had squandered three 50-yard plays in the fourth quarter all season at the time. Hence, Capers’ job security, as well as McCarthy’s, were placed under an overwhelming fire.
Where all the "fire McCarthy, Capers, Thompson" people at? pic.twitter.com/QZVH4G0Ln6
— Packers Stuff (@Packers_Stuff) December 12, 2016
Well, the recent three-game stretch gave the coaching staff a reason to exhale. Over the past three weeks, the Packers sit No. 1 in both opponents’ points per contest (12) and red zone opportunities, allowing just one per game. On top of that, they’re tied for first in takeaways per contest (2.7), aided by Week 14’s five-interception performance against Seattle Seahawks’ QB Russell Wilson in a 38-10 win. The takeaway fest occurred due to a disruptive front-seven, which accumulated nine QB hits on Wilson. Former first-round pick Daonte Jones guided the charge with five.
Oh. You probably want to know about that Rodgers guy, too.
Prior to the streak, his raw stats weren’t exactly unsatisfactory. The 6-foot-2, 229-pounder produced 2,761 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, seven interceptions and four lost fumbles in those 10 games. Nevertheless, he experienced poor timing with his receivers, collecting a subpar 63.1 completion percentage. Additionally, his 6.3 yards per pass attempt (No. 24 in the league) was tied with the Jeff Fisher-led Los Angeles Rams. There can’t be anything worse than that.
In similar fashion to the defense, though, those totals have seen a dramatic spike since. Over the past three matchups, Rodgers is positioned at No. 2 in completion percentage (72.3). Although Minnesota Vikings’ QB Sam Bradford finds himself with a slight edge, his offense primarily revolves around a dink-and-dunk passing attack. For the 12-year starter, his bunch has finally peeled off its plastic cover.
October: "What's wrong with Aaron Rodgers?"
December: "Aaron Rodgers is an MVP candidate."Life comes at you fast.
— Aaron Nagler (@AaronNagler) December 12, 2016
During the upswing, Rodgers stands toe-to-toe with the Pittsburgh Steelers’ signal caller Ben Roethlisberger in yards per pass attempt (8.0, No. 2 overall). Some of the credit should head McCarthy’s direction, who has been constantly picked apart for his conservative play-calling. After expecting his receivers to constantly out-muscle defensive backs on isolation routes, he shifted to a quick-strike approach to assist them in creating space.
However, Rodgers deserve plenty as well, developing a newfound rhythm with a formerly inconsistent receiving corps. As a result, he notched a 7:0 touchdown/interception ratio. More impressively, those numbers are occurring without a double-digit deficit in the final two quarters, thanks to the aforementioned defense.
Within the passing game, 23-year-old wideout Davante Adams has clicked with the veteran for two 100-plus yard receiving games in the last three contests, including two catches that went for at least 50 yards. One was a 66-yard scoring strike against the Seahawks, where Rodgers threw a perfectly thrown ball once he dashed outside of the pocket. Those signature tosses haven’t materialized as much in 2016, but expect many more down the stretch.
https://twitter.com/packers/status/808064121476263944
Plus, 31-year-old Jordy Nelson appears fully recovered from a torn ACL and is providing a comparable performance to his explosiveness from the 2014-15 campaign. In the aforementioned victories, Nelson averaged seven grabs and 83.3 yards per contest. He also compiled three scores. Even while working his way back, Nelson still leads the league in touchdown snags (12).
Despite an inefficient group of tailbacks, averaging 3.3 yards per carry in these three matchups, the Packers have committed to the run with a fourth quarter lead in each affair. Sans running back Eddie Lacy, Ty Montgomery and Christine Michael combined for 77 yards on 19 carries versus Seattle, and could form a somewhat intriguing duo over the final push of the season.
In order to make the playoffs, the Packers would need to win their remaining contests (at Bears, vs. Vikings, at Lions) and then receive a bit of assistance via the teams ahead in both the wild-card and NFC North races, respectively. Still, with both sides of the ball clicking at an unexpected rate, another surprise trip to the postseason is within their grasp.
