The Stanley Cup Final between the Pittsburgh Penguins and San Jose Sharks has a very good chance of ending Thursday night. Through four games, the Penguins have won three and have yet to trail at any point during a game, losing their one game in overtime.
So with the 2016 Stanley Cup champion practically decided, it’s never too soon to look toward next year.
Note: Since the current season isn’t over, the NHL Draft hasn’t happened and not a single free agent has been signed yet, of course it’s too soon to look toward next year. But who cares, right? How about some #content for fans that haven’t seen their team play a game in two months?
From 30 to 1, here are your Stanley Cup chances for everyone in the NHL for next season.
THE ABSOLUTELY NO SHOT IN HELL, THIS IS GOING TO BE ROUGH DIVISION
30. Vancouver Canucks
29. Carolina Hurricanes
28. Columbus Blue Jackets
27. Colorado Avalanche
26. New Jersey Devils
For a variety of reasons, these are going to be depressing seasons for fans of these teams.
The Canucks, a team that decidedly needs to rebuild, traded for Erik Gudbranson because they — due to some sort of learning deficiency — thinks they have a playoff team. Watching the wonderful Sedin twins slide deeper into irrelevance in the twilight of their careers will be like watching Morgan Freeman star in literally anything that comes across his desk.
The Hurricanes are at the start of a rebuild that could be quick, but it won’t turn around next season. Columbus and Colorado have talent, but they also have two coaches that may not know what year it is (the Avalanche seem destined to get ripped off in a Tyson Barrie trade at any minute). Remember: This isn’t about qualifying for the playoffs; it’s about winning a Cup.
The Devils exceeded expectations last season, which is why this season should feel like a tackhammer to the face. Their 38 wins are a testament to John Hynes, but this team is years away from a Cup.
THE ABSOLUTELY NO SHOT IN HELL, BUT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHAT FUN DIVISION
25. Arizona Coyotes
24. Calgary Flames
23. Edmonton Oilers
22. Ottawa Senators
Not even the most optimistic fan of either of these teams believes a Stanley Cup is coming in 2017. Actually, that’s not true. What am I saying? Someone will read this and definitely get mad.
The Coyotes have a fun young team and this might be Shane Doan’s swan song. The Flames also have some talented players worth watching and they are pointed in the right direction. The Senators have Erik Karlsson, so barring new coach Guy Boucher arriving and ruining the best defenseman in the sport, there’s always that.
With so much offensive talent, the Oilers have a real chance to turn things around this year.
Sorry. All hockey writers are contractually obligated to say that about the Oilers during the offseason.
THE ABSOLUTELY NO SHOT IN HELL, BUT THIS COULD BE THE START OF GREAT THINGS DIVISION
21. Toronto Maple Leafs
20. Winnipeg Jets
19. Buffalo Sabres
The Jets were a fine possession team with bad goaltending in 2015-16 that’s probably going to add Patrik Laine at the draft, so the postseason is well within reach. The Sabres improved from 54 to 81 points last season and the fact they play in the East makes them a threat to reach the playoffs.
But win the Cup? Not yet.
The Leafs had 69 points last season but will very likely add Auston Matthews with the first pick in the draft. They are in a similar spot to the 2015-16 Sabres, so while the playoffs are a longshot for the Leafs, this appears to be the year for jumping off toward a new beginning.
THE GOING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION DIVISION
18. Boston Bruins
17. Detroit Red Wings
16. New York Rangers
Pavel Datsyuk, retired. Zdeno Chara, fading. Almost everyone on the Rangers, aging.
The Bruins are just a mess. They are like watching Now You See Me (or the sequel, based on the reviews). There are stars and some flash at times but really, there is no coherent plan and it’s impossible to understand how anyone expected them to be good.
The Red Wings have a nice young core, but Henrik Zetterberg isn’t getting any younger and the defense is a hot mess. That playoff streak is in real jeopardy.
The Rangers got old and slow overnight, it seems. They could trade Rick Nash and retool in a way that keeps them competitive. But even with Henrik Lundqvist, that Cup window looks closed and painted shut.
THE IT REALLY DEPENDS ON WHAT THEY DO DURING THE OFFSEASON DIVISION
15. Minnesota Wild
14. New York Islanders
Bruce Boudreau is the only reason that the Wild aren’t in the Wrong Direction Division. It keeps the door open for something magical to happen. Do they buy out Thomas Vanek? Make a game-changing trade? There’s at least some hope.
The Islanders gave Casey Cizikas way too much money, but if they let Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen walk as free agents, there is a plethora of money to spend. Does it go to Steven Stamkos? Keith Yandle? Or does it just sit in a vault and go unspent? Or even worse, does it get spent on the wrong players?
THE WHO THE HELL KNOWS AT THIS POINT WITH THESE PRETTY GOOD TEAMS DIVISION
13. Montreal Canadiens
12. Florida Panthers
11. San Jose Sharks
10. Tampa Bay Lightning
9. Anaheim Ducks
Can Montreal turn it around with Carey Price healthy? Can Price stay healthy? What are the Panthers doing with all their front-office changes? What will the Sharks be like with Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau a year older? How will the Lightning function if Stamkos leaves as a free agent? Will the next Ducks coach get that team over the hump?
If you have the answer to all those questions, you can probably turn $5 into a billion dollars with the right wagers in Las Vegas.
THE TEAMS WE ALL KNOW ARE GOOD BUT JUST AREN’T WINNING IT ALL DIVISION
8. Philadelphia Flyers
I mean, Steve Mason skating around with the Cup over his head? A full season of Shayne Gostisbehere is exciting, but what about the rest of that defense? The Flyers look like the most fun playoff team that you know isn’t winning 16 playoff games.
THE THEY ONLY NEED ONE OR TWO PIECES AND THEY COULD DO IT DIVISION
7. Nashville Predators
Maybe this is a little high for the Predators, but they were one win from beating the Sharks in the second round. They could use one more top forward (get Stamkos!) to go with their great group of defenders and Pekka Rinne. They could be a sneaky dark horse Cup pick depending on how the summer goes.
6. Dallas Stars
A goaltender. Get a goaltender. Kidnap Henrik Lundqvist and give him the Winter Soldier treatment — longing, rusted, daybreak, seventeen, furnace — and next thing you know, he’s killing everyone (metaphorically) while his American friend ignores his crimes because they used to hang out in New York and even though he knows Henrik killed your other friend’s parents, somehow no one seems to get mad at the American friend because… sorry, having Civil War flashbacks.
5. St. Louis Blues
If they trade Kevin Shattenkirk for a top-six forward, that could be what sends Ken Hitchcock out with a Cup in his final season. They hit a wall against the Sharks after playing two seven-game series over the first two rounds and a couple reinforcements may get them through that wall.
THE VERY GOOD CHANCES AT WINNING THE CUP NEXT YEAR AS LONG AS NOTHING GOES HORRIBLY WRONG DIVISION
4. Los Angeles Kings
This is a team with one win over the past two postseasons, so it feels cheap putting them here. But they are so dominant at 5-on-5 that it seems like they had bad luck in 2014-15 when they missed the playoffs and worse luck when they ran into the Sharks in the first round this year. If they let Milan Lucic walk (they really should), they have room to improve an already very good team.
3. Chicago Blackhawks
They win the Cup (2010, 2013, 2015) just about every other year. Stan Bowman doesn’t need to gut this year’s team, so a championship in 2017 is very possible.
2. Washington Capitals
Much like the Kings in the first round, the Capitals ran into a Penguins buzzsaw in the second round. To me, that was the Stanley Cup Final when it happened, as the NHL’s playoff format leads to stupid matchups like Kings-Sharks in round one and Penguins-Capitals in round two. As long the Capitals don’t panic, 2017 could be Alex Ovechkin’s year.
1. Pittsburgh Penguins
Take a look at the Penguins’ General Fanager page. Who do they lose from this year’s team? Matt Cullen, Ben Lovejoy and maybe Justin Schultz. This team will return about as whole as a (probable) championship team can. And if they decide to trade Marc-Andre Fleury and go with Matt Murray in net, that frees about $5 million in cap space.
Throw in a full season of Mike Sullivan pushing the buttons and the Penguins have a chance to join Empire Strikes and Godfather Part II as the rare sequel that exceeds the original.
