A 2021 Olympics announcement.
OlympicsBy Andrew Bucholtz on

The 2021 Summer Olympics in Tokyo (which, of course, were supposed to have happened in 2020 before they were pushed a year thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic) are months away from their scheduled July 23 start, but a lot of problems have already popped up. There’s huge opposition in Japan to holding the Games in the middle of the ongoing pandemic (some polls have put opposition as high as 80 percent of Japanese citizens), especially with those Olympics likely to be even more over budget than previously projected thanks to bans of foreign fans (and likely forthcoming bans of even domestic spectators). But as Paul Newberry of The Associated Press wrote Thursday, the Games seem set to be pushed ahead (mainly to provide the IOC with TV revenue), even despite what that means for many involved:

Despite the mixed messages coming from top officials, not to mention the steadfast opposition of the vast majority of Japanese citizens, these Olympics will take place this summer.

There’s too much money at stake for there to be any other outcome.

But it’s clear this will be an Olympics in name only, stripped of the joy and charm and lofty ideals that make it a tradition unlike any other (sorry, Masters), leaving only the stench of well-deserved cynicism.

…Everyone from the athletes and coaches to officials and the media will be on virtual lockdown during their time in Japan, restricted largely to the stadiums and arenas where the events are held and the rooms where they will lay their heads at night.

…Frankly, it’s understandable that Japanese officials want to press forward, considering how much the country has laid out to prepare for the world’s grandest boondoggle — at least $15 billion officially, with audits suggesting the actual figure might be twice as much.

Newberry’s AP colleague Stephen Wade had a piece Friday on how local officials are still determined not to cancel these Games, but how they may now take place without any spectators. Some highlights:

Organizing committee president Seiko Hashimoto was asked at a news conference if there were any conditions under which the Olympics would be canceled.

The question comes as the general secretary of ruling LDP political party, Toshihiro Nikai, raised the possibility the day before.

“There are a variety of concerns but as the Tokyo 2020 organizing committee we are not thinking about canceling the games,” Hashimoto said.

…On Thursday, the government minister in charge of Japan’s vaccine rollout, Taro Kono, said even if the Olympics go on, there may be no fans of any kind in the venues. He said it’s likely that the Olympics will have to be held in empty venues, particularly as cases surge across the country.

Wade also had a good Twitter thread on some of the issues being discussed:

It’s also notable that despite all the moves being made to support putting on this sports event, there are lots of issues with the pure sports side of it too. For starters, moving the Games a year dramatically affected many athletes; the standard four-year Olympic cycle is vitally important to many of them, and some are going to be more affected than others by the move to 2021.

Beyond that, though, even the processes put in place to qualify for these shifted Games have come with their own challenges for various participants. For example, during the CONCACAF men’s soccer qualifications, Haiti had to start a game with 10 players rather than 11 (and with no dedicated goalie) thanks to COVID-19 testing delays. And a story from Lori Ewing of The Canadian Press Friday illustrates the problems from canceled qualifiers, such as the May boxing qualifiers in Argentina that were axed Thursday. The replacement plan has the spots just going via IOC Boxing Task Force ranking, but that’s rough for athletes like Canada’s Mandy Bujold, who wasn’t able to participate in the events being considered for that ranking.

Bujold’s case is a good example of the challenges with rescheduling an Olympics and then changing the qualifying setup. Bujold took time off in 2018 to give berth to her daughter Kate that summer, and has found success since returning to boxing (including top-three finishes), but in events that aren’t considered for these rankings. That issue was further exacerbated when last season’s schedule was wiped out by the pandemic. And while she wasn’t seeded for this particular continental qualifier (which was initially supposed to take place last March, but was postponed due to the coronavirus outbreak), she was confident she’d be able to fight her way into a top-four finish and an Olympic berth. While cancelling that qualifier may well be the right move from a wider perspective given the COVID-19 crisis in Argentina, it’s highly unfortunate for athletes like Bujold, as she told Ewing:

“There were literally three events in the last 16 years I didn’t attend, and of course, those are the three that are being considered for ranking points,” she said.

The two-time Pan American Games champion wasn’t seeded for the Olympic qualifier, but she said “I was confident that I could fight my way to the top four and then qualify myself.”

“Now they’re taking away that only opportunity that I have to actually be able to prove that hey, I’m still here. I didn’t go anywhere. That’s the most frustrating part is not being able to actually prove, and (show) all the work that you’ve been putting in. . . . All the training camps and all the the money and the time. Oh, man, it’s just unreal.”

And Bujold’s far from the only athlete in that kind of situation thanks to the circumstances around these particular Games. Olympic sports are tough and don’t lead to many financial rewards even for many of those who are able to make it to the Games, but they’re really difficult for those who put in similar amounts of work and money and just miss qualification for one reason or another. In more standard times, though, that at least feels a little fairer; yes, the qualification process itself isn’t always fair, but it’s spelled out long in advance what qualification will be based upon, where those events will be held, and so on. During this pandemic, much of that is being rewritten on the fly, such as this shift from a qualifying tournament to a decision only made based on rankings.

There isn’t really an easy solution to any of this. Calling off the 2021 Games right now would please many in Japan, but it would lead to even larger debts for Japan’s local and federal governments, and for the IOC itself (although they’re not as much of a concern). It would also create problems for athletes and for broadcast partners. Beyond that, everything comes with balances; tight restrictions on athletes, journalists and fans may be unpleasant and may diminish the Games, but looser restrictions might lead to outbreaks and risk the ability to finish the Games. Cancelling qualifiers and seeding based only on rankings may be awfully unfair to athletes like Bujold, but holding qualifiers in a country in the middle of a bad outbreak has its own massive risks and problems. The takeaway from all this at the moment seems to be that the 2021 Summer Olympics are still going to happen in one way or another, but that the way that they’re going to happen is going to lead to a lot of issues for a lot of people.

[AP, AP, CP]

About Andrew Bucholtz

Andrew Bucholtz has been covering sports media for Awful Announcing since 2012. He is also a staff writer for The Comeback. His previous work includes time at Yahoo! Sports Canada and Black Press.

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