Over the past several months, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have exploded in popularity, allowing users to “trade” positions on various predictions, not just involving sports, but also other global events. Now, as the platforms face increased scrutiny, Kalshi has decided to ban former Republican representative George Santos from the platform.
On Monday, Kalshi officially decided to permanently ban Santos from the platform after allegations of insider trading, marking an unprecedented move for Kalshi and prediction markets in general.
Who is George Santos?
George Santos has become infamous in pop culture for his widespread fraud.
Santos was elected to Congress in November 2022 on Long Island, becoming the first openly LGBTQ Republican freshman in the House. Within weeks, however, he began to face some strong criticism as news outlets reported fabricated education and employment at Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Chase, along with invented details about his family and 9/11 connections.
The core of the issue was financial fraud. Santos claimed to have loaned his campaign over $700,000 in 2022 while reporting only $55,000 net worth in 2020. He misused donor credit card information and spent campaign funds on Botox, luxury goods, and dating apps instead of politics. The House Ethics Committee found substantial evidence of fraudulent conduct and false campaign filings.
Santos pleaded guilty to wire fraud and aggravated identity theft in August 2024, facing 6-8 years in prison. He was expelled from Congress in December 2023. Trump commuted his sentence in 2025, and Santos was released after the brief prison sentence.
Santos Insider Trading Allegations
Santos faced allegations of insider trading related to his appearance at Trump’s State of the Union address.
The former Representative placed bets on Kalshi about whether he would attend the speech back in February. Before the speech, he posted on social media that he planned to attend, shifting the market. He then chose not to attend.
Santos was fined $35,000 last month by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator of prediction markets, over similar claims. Now, Kalshi is taking action itself.
Santos Banned from Kalshi
On Monday, Kalshi officially announced that Santos had been “permanently” banned from the platform after it found evidence that he engaged in insider trading. Additionally, the platform fined him $71,356.
“The Kalshi compliance department has established reasonable cause to believe that George Santos engaged in trading activity in certain markets related to his attendance at the State of the Union address,” the company said in a statement via the New York Times.
This is a rather unprecedented move, marking the first ban of its kind. Kalshi said that Santos did not cooperate with the investigation.
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