NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin (11) leads a group of cars during practice for the Daytona 500 Feb 15, 2022; Daytona, FL, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin (11) leads a group of cars during practice for the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes down to it, the Daytona 500 is a crapshoot. The best car doesn’t always win and “The Great American Race” is really more about survival and actually getting to the end of the race than sheer performance. It’s because of this that, quite honestly, just about anybody in the 40-car field can win on Sunday.

Case in point, Michael McDowell was 68/1 and he won last year’s Daytona 500 after passing the crashing Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski. This kind of randomness might scare away potential gamblers but if it’s so random that we can’t predict what happens, the oddsmakers can’t either. That means there is some great value throughout the field and if you can get lucky, you’re in for a massive pay day, even if you pick one of the favorites.

Separated by multiple tiers (favorites, sleepers, dark horses, long shots), here are some drivers worth considering putting some money on.

(Odds are from DraftKings and are accurate as of Saturday, February 19)

The favorites (15/1 and lower)

Denny Hamlin 9/1

The co-favorite of this year’s race, Denny Hamlin is a three-time Daytona 500 champion and that includes back-to-back victories in 2019 and 2020. Hamlin isn’t much of a threat at Talladega or the summer Daytona race but in the Daytona 500, he really seems to put himself in a position to win. Hamlin might start 30th, but that was largely due to spinning on pit road in Thursday Duel, not due to performance so he’ll be up in the front.

Ryan Blaney 10/1

Ryan Blaney might be one of the best on superspeedways who is yet to win the Daytona 500. A winner of last year’s 400 miler at Daytona, as well as Talladega wins in 2019 and 2020, Blaney has finished second twice in the ‘500. Crashes have sidelined Blaney from competing at the end of the race but if he can be there at the end, he’ll surely be in the fight.

Brad Keselowski 14/1

Brad Keselowski might’ve moved to a new team but he sure hasn’t lost a step on the superspeedways. Now a part-owner of the newly named RFK Racing (fka Roush-Fenway Racing), Keselowski has been toward the top of the charts in every session and won Duel #1 while teammate Chris Buescher won Duel #2. Keselowski has won every crown jewel of the sport except for one. Winning the Daytona 500, in his first race as an owner/driver, would be one incredible story.

Other favorites include: Kyle Larson (9/1), Chase Elliott (11/1), Joey Logano (12/1), William Byron (15/1), Kyle Busch (15/1)

 

The sleepers (16/1 to 30/1)

Chris Buescher 25/1

Just like his teammate/car owner, Chris Buescher won the second Duel race. Buescher has never won at Daytona but this seems like a situation for a seemingly random driver to breakthrough. The Ford’s are very competitive so Buescher has a shot to get it done on Sunday.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 25/1

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. might have a reputation for being aggressive and causing crashes on superspeedways but you kind of have to be aggressive on these tracks if you want to win. And whether it’s fair or not, typically the person who causes the crash (intentionally or unintentionally) isn’t collected in that crash. So while I don’t think Stenhouse is doing this intentionally, he does sometimes eliminate a good portion of the field in these races that in a way could put him in a position to contend.

Chase Briscoe 30/1

Stewart-Haas Racing has been rather disappointing this week but Chase Briscoe is the exception. He’s stayed out of trouble and has been placed near the top in all leaderboards this week. I would like to see Briscoe be able to make the winning move but if he can figure that out, he’s got as good a shot as anyone.

Other sleepers include: Alex Bowman (18/1), Austin Dillon (18/1), Martin Truex Jr. (20/1), Bubba Wallace (20/1), Kurt Busch (20/1), Kevin Harvick (20/1), Austin Cindric (25/1), Tyler Reddick (25/1), Aric Almirola (25/1), Michael McDowell (28/1), Christopher Bell (30/1)

 

The dark horses (35/1 to 75/1)

Ross Chastain 35/1

Do I think Ross Chastain will win the Daytona 500? Probably not. But when you’re looking for drivers to bet on with these kind of odds, you’re looking at drivers who have good value and that’s where Chastain falls in. He’s someone who can compete and will be aggressive but maybe has been somewhat ignored. No one expected Michael McDowell to win last year, Ross Chastain can go down the same path.

Harrison Burton 50/1

Harrison Burton is following the footsteps of Trevor Bayne. In 2011, in just his second career start, Bayne took the #21 Wood Brothers Ford to an improbable Daytona 500 win. Burton, in just his second career start, in the #21 Wood Brothers Ford, looked really strong in the Duel and may very well get the same result when it’s all said and done. He’ll need to take the occasional risk if he wants to win, which wasn’t something he really did in the Duel, but he’s got 500 miles to get that confidence to make a move.

Greg Biffle 75/1

He may not have been in a Cup race since 2016 but Greg Biffle looks like he hasn’t lost a step. The guy has been racing just about anything and everything in the past six years but when it came to getting back in a Cup car at Daytona, Biffle kept his Chevy out of trouble and put the car in the middle of the field for the Daytona 500. Biffle is definitely capable of winning and he’s got great value.

Other dark horses include: Justin Haley (35/1), Daniel Suárez (50/1), Daniel Hemric (60/1), Erik Jones (60/1), Cole Custer (70/1)

 

The long shots (100/1 and higher)

Ty Dillon 100/1

Ty Dillon may not have had the career his older brother has had but he has been trying to forge his own path in the sport. Without a full time ride in 2020 and 2021, Dillon is back full time with a new Cup team in Petty GMS Racing. Dillon may have been a bit too aggressive at NASCAR’s Clash at the Coliseum two weeks ago but if he can control that, he could have a great shot to pull off the upset.

Landon Cassill 100/1

Landon Cassill’s strength is his ability to avoid crashing. In 326 Cup Series races, Cassill has only DNF’ed due to a crash in 21 of those races. In a race where three quarters of the field will crash at some point, betting on someone who has a good chance to avoid those wrecks is worth a shot. The Daytona 500 is all about survival and Cassill’s a survivor. A top 10 (11/1) finish for Cassill is worth considering as well.

Noah Gragson 100/1

After failing to qualify for last year’s Daytona 500, Noah Gragson qualified this year and will take part in his first Cup Series race. Gragson might be in an underfunded car that just does the superspeedways but if his Xfinity Series career is any indication, Gragson isn’t afraid to put his car where it needs to be in order to get the win. It’s a high risk, high reward pick but at 100/1 odds, taking that kind of risk comes with the territory.

Other long shots include: Kaz Grala (100/1), Corey LaJoie (100/1), David Ragan (100/1), Jacques Villeneuve (100/1), Todd Gilliland (150/1), Cody Ware (150/1), BJ McLeod (150/1)

About Phillip Bupp

Producer/editor of the Awful Announcing Podcast and Short and to the Point. News editor for The Comeback and Awful Announcing. Highlight consultant for Major League Soccer as well as a freelance writer for hire. Opinions are my own but feel free to agree with them.

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