At our count last week, there will still 16 teams left alive in the College Football Playoff hunt. Now, with just two weeks left to go, we are down to 13. TCU was eliminated when they picked up their second loss, Wisconsin’s chances ended when Iowa clinched the Big Ten West, and Houston’s pipe dream was dashed by UConn.
We are also going to add a section this week, because we have two teams that do not quite control their own destiny but should be reasonably safe if they win their final two games. If the “Teams that Control Their Destiny” section is the equivalent of “locks” in a college basketball bubble watch, this new section will be the equivalent of “teams that should be in.” In fact, that’s what we will call it.
*
Let’s just get a quick review of how this works.
I considered adding other metrics like rankings in offensive and defensive efficiency or yards per play. At the end of the day, however, the resume is which teams you have beaten, so I will stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you how many remaining games against Top 25 teams each contender has.
(Please note: the “Top 25 Remaining” section does not count conference championship games until such a game is finalized. This means that we will count Clemson and North Carolina’s upcoming game against each other, but no other conference championship games yet.)
For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between 24 and 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (AP or Coaches’), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes.
This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, but they do give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is.
*
Bubble Watch: Week 12
First, let’s identify which teams are still alive, no matter how slim their chances are at this point. As mentioned above, there are 13 teams still alive in this race.
AAC: None
ACC: Clemson, North Carolina
Big Ten: Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Iowa
Big 12: Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Conference USA: None
MAC: None
Mountain West: None
Pac-12: Stanford
SEC: Florida, Alabama
Sun Belt: None
Independents: Notre Dame
Teams That Control Their Own Destiny
The committee has loved Clemson since day one, but it’s becoming increasingly unclear why. Clemson usually passes the eye test with flying colors (we’ll excuse Louisville for being a Thursday night game), but other than the win over Notre Dame this resume lacks anything notable. Only two Top 40 wins and an SOS that is plummeting due to a weak backstretch of the season make this once-strong resume look rather pedestrian, if not for that zero in the loss column. Playing all four of the ACC’s teams outside the Top 80 really took a toll.
Iowa, like Clemson, controls their own destiny because they are undefeated. This resume is better than many would have you believe, but a loss will put it squarely in the middle of the bubble. It’s likely all or nothing as far as the Playoff is concerned for the Hawkeyes.
Teams That Should Be In If They Win Out
People keep asking what Alabama’s great wins are. They don’t really have any great wins (LSU got in as a second ranked win by dint of the computers). But they have a ton of good wins. Seven wins over Top 40 teams is by far the most in the country. This resume is elite because of the sheer number of good wins on it, even if it lacks any great ones.
Michigan State currently has three ranked wins, more than anyone else in the country. It would take a miracle for any of those three wins to drop out of the rankings. Add a fourth one (and a second Top 10 win) over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game and it is highly unlikely that Michigan State gets left out. Also, that SOS number would be a lot better if not for the fact that Sagarin seems to dislike the Big Ten in general.
On The Bubble
Notre Dame has a better SOS than its competitors from the Big 12. The Irish could very well end up with four (five if they are really lucky) ranked wins, which will be hard for anyone from the Big 12 to compete with, especially if the champion isn’t Oklahoma.
There is not so much to separate Oklahoma and Notre Dame’s resumes. Notre Dame might have a few more wins at the top, but the SOS numbers will be pretty close and Tennessee could end the year ranked (by the computers, at least) if they beat Vanderbilt. You can bet that the committee will be rooting for Stanford or Oklahoma State this week to save them from this tough decision.
You can really see what difference the nonconference schedules made when comparing the SOS numbers of the three Big 12 schools in this section. Oklahoma State needs to win Bedlam and for Baylor to lose a game just to win the Big 12. Their resume is better than Baylor’s, but that head-to-head might be their undoing.
Will a horrible nonconference schedule cost Baylor (and the Big 12) a Playoff shot again? The Bears need Oklahoma State to win Bedlam. They should also strongly pull for a Notre Dame loss, because right now this resume won’t get in ahead of the Irish.
Florida has looked pretty horrible these last few weeks. The Gators have also apparently mastered the art of looking better than they really are in my Bubble Watch. Three of their wins in the 41-80 range are actually averaging between 75 and 80 in the computers (Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and ECU). Still, if wins over Florida State and Alabama are added, this resume could look much better.
Still Alive
Unfortunately for Stanford, their good wins from earlier in the season keep beating each other up. This resume looked like it would be better than a one-loss Big 12 champion’s a few weeks ago. Now, not so much. Still, the Cardinal could end with an impressive five Top 40 wins and up to three ranked wins if they are lucky. Though, unfortunately again for the Cardinal, whoever they beat in the Pac 12 Championship Game probably won’t be able to stay in the rankings.
The loss to Michigan State hurt the Buckeyes badly. They’re still alive, though, but only if they can end the season with two ranked wins, including a win over a Top 4 Iowa team in the Big Ten Championship Game. That means that Penn State needs to beat Michigan State this week. Three Top 40 wins (Penn State would move into the Top 40 in this case) is probably not enough to get Ohio State in, but it could be close–especially if Stanford beats Notre Dame.
The one time that the Wolverines were rooting for their hated Buckeye rivals and Ohio State let them down. If you add wins over Ohio State and Iowa to this resume, it doesn’t look bad at all. But, like the Buckeyes, that means they will need Penn State to knock off the Spartans this week.
I have no idea why I have this resume as still alive either. Maybe because the committee will be willing to overlook the South Carolina loss a little? Even so, this resume lack any quality. Add a win over Clemson and it’s still hard to see this being better than anyone else’s on this page.
Group of 5 Resumes
In this section of Bubble Watch, we are bringing up the resumes of the teams competing for the Group of Five access bid to see who is most likely to play in the Peach or Fiesta Bowl. Instead of looking at how many ranked teams these teams will play, we will use the last column for what is probably a more relevant stat for the committee: record against Power 5 teams.
Houston probably controls their own destiny for what will likely be the Fiesta Bowl. The showdown with Navy will determine the AAC West representative.
Navy has by far one of the best strengths of schedule of any Group of 5 team in the running. Maybe (big maybe) Toledo can beat out Houston for the spot, but Navy without question controls their own destiny. They could be looking at a Top 10 ranking if they win out.
Temple is probably going to a New Years Six bowl if they win their last two games, though it will get dicey if Toledo wins the MAC.
South Florida can win the AAC East if they win this weekend and UConn beats Temple. If not for the 4 in USF’s loss column, this resume would be pretty strong. It’s a good SOS and more Top 80 games than any other G5 contender has played.
If not for that Boston College loss, this resume might give the AAC champ a run for its money. As it is now, though, NIU’s only chance is for USF to win the AAC.
This is a solid G5 resume. Toledo would be a shoe-in for the access bid if they hadn’t lost to NIU. Now, though, they need the Huskies to lose Tuesday night in order to even have a chance at winning the MAC.
Bowling Green’s third loss hurt them, but their resume might still have a tiny chance over Temple. Like NIU, though, they really need USF to win the AAC.
This resume isn’t really as good as anyone’s from the AAC or MAC. They need to win out and need serious help to get this spot.
Marshall will end the season without playing a single Top 40 game. If they win out, they’re probably behind the Mountain West champ in the G5 pecking order.
Air Force played a great nonconference schedule, but they didn’t win enough games to get the bid.
0-2 vs P5 and that awful SOS means no NY6 bowl for San Diego State this year. The program is moving in the right direction, though.
It’s really too bad for the Sun Belt that Arkansas State is going to win the conference. Appalachian State or Georgia Southern would have had a chance.
