Did any of us honestly think that on the night of October 10 in this or any recent college football season, we’d be saying that the Oregon Ducks were essentially done?
This is not a long-term statement, only a season-specific one. The Ducks might still have a future in the next few years, but for 2015, you can consult Billy Packer: It is OVAH.
Oregon is two games behind Stanford in the Pac-12 North after Saturday’s wrenching come-from-ahead loss to Washington State in Autzen Stadium. The Ducks have to play at Stanford, and given how the two teams have looked over the past few weeks, the Cardinal should be ready to deliver a mighty thumping in November, barring some unforeseen plot twists and reversals in the weeks ahead.
Moreover, even if Oregon somehow found a way to beat Stanford, the Ducks would have to run the table in the rest of their Pac-12 games and hope that Stanford stubbed its toe in a second conference game. The odds of an Oregon Pac-12 North title are so slim that it seems pointless to keep the Ducks in the conference championship conversation.
This is a season which will produce a third-tier bowl at best, and that’s no season at all for the Ducks, whose year certainly feels lost.
This, however, is only one season, and moreover, Oregon under Mark Helfrich has shown that it can bounce back from a bad year.
What should worry the locals in Eugene is not so much that a drop-off has occurred; it’s that the group responsible for the drop-off lacks one important piece who was there in 2013… and was able to pick up the pieces in 2014: Marcus Mariota.
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Let us entertain the possibility that Oregon’s in deeper trouble than we think. The Ducks and Helfrich might be in over their heads. There could be a leadership problem both on the field (quarterback) and on the sidelines (the head coach). These possibilities shouldn’t be dismissed or assumed to be wrong.
They shouldn’t, however, be given too much weight at this stage in the Ducks’ development.
Why, you might ask? Oregon could go 6-6 at this point, given the way this team is playing. Wouldn’t that be a disaster in 2015? Isn’t it entirely sensible to conclude that something is alarmingly and severely wrong with this team — not just in terms of performance, but also character?
Here’s the main reason why it’s still premature to identify Helfrich in particular as the source of Oregon’s woes: We’ve already been through this debate.
That’s right. You might recall that in 2013, Helfrich’s first season as head coach in Eugene, the Ducks fell well short of expectations. They didn’t win the Pac-12 North. They didn’t make a BCS bowl, which had been a normal season under Chip Kelly. They played in the Alamo Bowl, with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. The team lost focus and belief after a late-season loss at Stanford. The Ducks simply weren’t themselves once they ceased to control their own fate in the Pac-12 North. Helfrich had to own up to that failure, and everyone in the college football community knew that he had to prove himself in 2014.
The Ducks won the North and the Pac-12 as a whole. They reached the College Football Playoff. They hammered previously unbeaten Florida State in the Rose Bowl. They produced a tremendously successful season. Helfrich answered his critics. He showed strength and great capability in leading the program.
Did he have Mariota at the controls, turning in a Heisman Trophy season which covered so many of the team’s weaknesses? Sure he did. Was it true that Mariota’s combination of imposing statistical production and constant leadership guided the Ducks through periods in which their offensive line was banged up and their defense immersed in a learning process? Sure.
Nevertheless, it was on Helfrich to get the program to improve after a shaky season, and Chip Kelly’s successor did just that. If we’re doubting Helfrich’s ability to do the same now, we’re losing sight of 2014.
What we’re not losing sight of in 2015 is that Mariota isn’t — and won’t be — around to lead the Ducks back up the mountain a second time. This seems to be the urgent matter at the heart of the Oregon program. It’s a quarterback question, not a coaching question, and it’s a performance issue, not a leadership issue (at least at this point).
Oregon wouldn’t be the first program to enjoy immense success under a special, generationally significant player (Mariota) and then regress the next year after that player’s departure. The Ducks won’t be the last team to run into the brick wall of such a reality.
You can certainly hold doubts about Helfrich’s ability to win without Mariota in the back of your mind, but the thought which should reside in the forefront of your thoughts is that Helfrich has already produced a bounce-back season — it occurred last year in Eugene. The Ducks put a lot on their quarterback as a program. This is a program which depends on excellent quarterback play to be successful. If 2015 is a year of transition for Oregon, it’s because the quarterback spot is in transition.
Questioning Helfrich’s competence and fitness for the job?
Let’s revisit that question in 2016, conceding that while this year might be about the players, next season does become a time when Helfrich will have to prove his worth all over again.
It’s a “What Have You Done For Me Lately” profession, football coaching. This failed 2015 season can be chalked up to losing Marcus Mariota, but if 2016 also falls short and adjustments aren’t made, we can wonder if Mark Helfrich is the right long-term leader for Oregon football.
Let’s acknowledge the laws of averages for now. In 2016, though, Oregon will indeed step into a cauldron of immense pressure, with its head coach once again looking into the barrel of a daunting challenge…
… this time without a Heisman-winning quarterback and No. 2 overall NFL draft pick.
