Major League Baseball’s trade deadline is only four days away, which means it’s time for rumors to fly, teams to contemplate tough decisions and players to wonder if the next phone call will send them out of town.
In anticipation of the deadline, we asked our writers to guess at the deadline’s biggest moves. Here’s what they came up with:
Who will be the biggest name moved at the trade deadline, and where will he go?
Ian Casselberry: Yu Darvish will be the biggest name that gets traded. The Rangers are 18 games behind the Astros in the AL West and have five teams ahead of them in the wild card standings. GM Jon Daniels may have less leverage because Darvish can be a free agent after the season, but he can entice contenders by offering an ace-level starter.
The team that would benefit most by adding Darvish is the Astros. Houston’s rotation has Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers pitching well at the top, while Mike Fiers and Charlie Morton have been very good this season. But add Darvish to that mix and the Astros can go three or four deep in a postseason series and bolster their bullpen by moving a starter to long relief.
Daniels shouldn’t worry about trading within the division. The Astros have a loaded farm system and can afford to trade prospects for a three-month rental. Someone like outfielder Derek Fisher or pitcher Francis Martes could be the centerpiece of a package that could help the Rangers reload.
Alex Putterman: I’m not alone on this one, but Sonny Gray to the Yankees makes a whole lot of sense. The Athletics’ righty is a perfect fit for a team looking to improve in 2017 while setting itself up for 2018 and 2019 as well, and Brian Cashman has the prospects to make a deal happen. It helps that the A’s will likely ask for the type of low-level minor-leaguers the Yankees won’t mind giving up as they see their title window opening. Though the Yankees have indicated they don’t want to sacrifice the future, their farm system is deep enough, particularly on the position-player side, that they could afford to fork over, say, 19-year-old centerfielder Estevan Florial and 22-year-old shortstop/outfielder Jorge Mateo. With so many promising young players in the Majors and high minors, Cashman can afford to be trade away talent.
Getting Gray would give the Yankees a rock-solid five-man rotation for the stretch run and add to a promising stable of young pitchers (Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, Chance Adams). And trading the pitcher now while he’s healthy, productive and under control for a few more years helps Billy Beane and the A’s maximize their return.
Matt Clapp: I’m going with two trades.
1. A’s trade SP Sonny Gray and 1B Yonder Alonso to Yankees
This deal makes so much sense for the Yankees both for their playoff push and looking beyond 2017.
The Yankees have a real shot to win the AL East right now, and acquiring Gray and Alonso would greatly help those chances. Gray would slot in as an excellent second or third starter in a rotation with Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery. Additionally, if Masahiro Tanaka opts out of his contract, Severino and Montgomery are the only locks for the rotation, and Gray is signed through 2019.
The Yankees as a team are dead-last in first basemen WAR (-1.2) according to FanGraphs, and Alonso is ninth among first basemen with a 2.1 fWAR.
This trade would require a lot going back, especially with other teams known to be very interested in Gray, but the Yankees have the resources to get this done.
2. Tigers trade SP Justin Verlander to Cubs
This deal could potentially be expanded to include catcher Alex Avila—the Cubs have been heavily linked to him—and/or left-handed reliever Justin Wilson.
Verlander gives the Cubs a clear upgrade over John Lackey this year, but the Cubs mainly make the trade due to Verlander being under team control for multiple more seasons. Yes, Verlander’s had a down year with a 4.50 ERA and 4.21 FIP, and he’s 34 years old. But his velocity is actually the best it’s been since 2011 and the stuff appears to definitely still be there.
The main issue with Verlander is of course that he’s owed $28 million each of the next two seasons. However, the Cubs are in a great financial situation to be able to handle plenty of money and won’t be looking to spend on much else over the offseason, if they can add a quality starting pitcher to team with Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, and Kyle Hendricks.
I expect the Tigers to ultimately agree to pay some of the remaining Verlander contract in exchange for an upgraded prospect haul (Jeimer Candelario is a top 100-ish prospect that is basically a free throw-in for the Cubs in that he’s blocked by Kris Bryant). The Cubs sending John Lackey back in the deal makes sense to offset some 2017 salary and give the Tigers a veteran innings-eater to close out the season.
Joe Lucia: Until the trade talks started getting louder over the last week or so, I didn’t even think of Yu Darvish as trade bait. But with those cries continuing to build momentum and Darvish scheduled to hit the free agent market this offseason, I think he’ll be the most popular/prominent/shocking player dealt over the next week.
And the more I think about it, the more I think the Yankees are a fit. They have the prospect capital to get a deal done, they could definitely use a high-end starting pitcher, and a rental like Darvish seems like a great match for them and their plans going forward.
Liam McGuire: Many teams could use an above average arm to solidify their rotation, which makes Sonny Gray an extremely attractive option. The 27-year-old is controllable beyond this season, so any team acquiring him would be getting more than a one-year rental. With Oakland in full rebuild mode, Gray makes sense for numerous teams, and the Athletics could ask for multiple high-end prospects in return. The Yankees would be a perfect fit
Ryan Williamson: Going to go out on a limb here, I think the Tigers are going to pull the trigger on a trade of Justin Verlander. There have been talks that Detroit would be willing to eat some of Verlander’s salary, so I’m going to make the leap that Kate Upton’s hubby will be moved in the next few days. I believe the Yankees are going to be the team that pulls the trigger. Right now, New York is currently in the playoffs as a wild card and is just a few games behind Boston. This might be the move that puts Joe Girardi and company over the top. I believe for the Yankees to pull off this deal, they’d have to send out two or three top prospects. They also might have to include a major league player. Maybe a guy like Aaron Hicks.
