Northwestern and TCU are not typically associated with March Madness. That could change this season.
The Northwestern Wildcats and TCU Horned Frogs are not frequent postseason participants.
For TCU, they’ve made the NCAA Tournament just seven times, with their last trip in 1998. Northwestern? Never, famously. The Wildcats’ first 20-win season ever was within the last decade.
And yet, both programs may be headed to the Big Dance this March, albeit via different paths.
Northwestern hired long-time Duke assistant coach Chris Collins for the 2013-14 season, and committed to the slow rebuild. The team improved by a win in year one, and another in year two, before jumping up to 20 last season. The Wildcats are already at 16 now, with 11 left to play. They’re currently third in the Big Ten standings at 5-2.
TCU has attempted to jump-start the process by going with a highly proven commodity for quick results. Alum and former Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon was installed to make a splash with a manageable early schedule. The Frogs have done so, already surpassing last year’s total of 12 wins (they have 14 now), and sitting right in the middle of the Big 12 standings.
Still, the teams don’t always look so different once they’re on the court. Both have shown a renewed tenacity on defense (both are top-60 nationally in points per game allowed), and a focus on team-oriented basketball (Northwestern and TCU are also among the top 25 teams in the country in terms of assists per game). Neither squad really relies on the three-point game either, each sporting shooting percentages of .365 or lower from beyond the arc.
They’ll also look pretty similar in terms of resume, at least if you looked right now.
Northwestern is the only team in @B1GMBBall with four conference road victories. #B1GCats | #PoundTheRock pic.twitter.com/9MSWmkojzU
— Northwestern Basketball (@NUMensBball) January 22, 2017
According to the most recent edition of ESPN’s Bracketology, Northwestern’s currently a nine-seed, while TCU’s a line above as an eight. They’re slightly flipped over at KenPom.com, which had the Wildcats 31st and the Horned Frogs 33rd as of Sunday night’s rankings.
Those numbers would set both up well to make the NCAA Tournament field if the season ended today, but it doesn’t. And based on what we’re seeing so far, while TCU and Northwestern both exhibit some strong advanced numbers and are definitely better teams than they were a year ago, a shaky week or two for either could send them tumbling. Over on SB Nation, the Frogs are already on the outside looking in for the latest edition of their own bracketology exercise. And that was before they suffered close losses to Texas Tech and Baylor.
Is it possible that these feel-good stories could be up against one another for an all-important bid come selection time in March? And if so, which of the two teams is most likely to continue their surprise run into the NCAA Tournament?
A look at the full resumes, and upcoming opportunities for both:
Northwestern
The Wildcats are 31st in KenPom, but 40th on Real-Time RPI. KenPom also favors NU a bit more on the strength of schedule front – they’re 58th there, but down at 81st on Real-Time RPI. That said, Northwestern’s best wins to-date are Dayton and Ohio State, though at least both were away from home. They also have no bad losses, either. Of the four games they’ve dropped, Michigan State is probably the worst – which is actually a pretty strong argument in favor of Northwestern.
Looking ahead, the Wildcats have six opponents that could really help pad the resume. Home-and-homes with both Purdue and Indiana would be helpful even if split 2-2. And a back-to-back against Wisconsin and then Maryland is another brutal set of tests – but one that could leave the selection committee with little to doubt should they pull off at least a victory. If they somehow won both games against the Big Ten frontrunners, the tourney bid would be assured.
TCU
TCU’s computer numbers are actually a little more helpful across the board. KenPom has them 33rd, while Real-Time RPI says 30th. Strength of schedule is also a bit higher for them on both metrics – 31st for the former, and 34th for the latter. There’s a very small group of teams that have failed to receive an invite with those numbers, especially when bolstered by some resume-worthy wins on top of them. The Horned Frogs own victories over Illinois State and Iowa State, though both of those were at home.
The current clustering of the Big 12 standings could either help or hurt them the rest of the way. If teams like Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas Tech continue to hang around .500 in league play, wins over those teams will fail to make as much of an impact. TCU also has an equal number of remaining games (three) left with the Big 12’s ranked teams as it does with its bottom three. If the Frogs can’t get past one of Kansas, Baylor or West Virginia (they’re 0-3 so far), they’ll need to hope another middle-of-the-pack team they’ve beaten (like Iowa State?) gains some separation.
If you were choosing between the two teams today, the Horned Frogs probably take the bid by way of some slightly better computer numbers and similar quality wins. The line’s pretty slim between the two as it is, however. And recent trends don’t help TCU as much as they help the Wildcats – the Frogs have lost two straight, while Northwestern has won four in a row.
If both long-suffering programs are lucky, this ends up a non-starter come Selection Sunday. Another quality win or two could punch tickets for both, and the debate goes away pretty quickly. Or so we’d think. With over a month’s worth of games to play, there’s still plenty of time for both of these teams – and maybe the selection committee – to surprise us all.
