We are approaching the end of the college football regular season, which means that the upper echelon of teams are trying to do everything they can to get into the College Football Playoff.
At this point in the season, there are really only a handful of teams that can even make the argument to be considered for the playoff.
Here is what each CFP contender needs to do, and what they all need to happen, ranked from least likely to most likely to earn a College Football Playoff
For this list, we are not going to include the No. 1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs and the No. 4 ranked Florida State Seminoles, as their paths are pretty straightforward to get a playoff bid.
Barring a complete collapse at the end of the regular season, Georgia should have a secure spot in the CFP, even with a loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship game.
Meanwhile, Florida State will need to win out to get a bid into the CFP. It’s extremely unlikely that we see a one-loss ACC school get in. So the Seminoles will need to run the table, including an ACC Championship to keep their playoff spot.
6. No. 10 Louisville Cardinals
What needs to happen?
- Win out and convincingly defeat Florida State in the ACC Championship game
- A loss from Washington, Oregon, Texas, and Alabama
- Hope that the CFP Committee values the ACC
How likely is it?
To put it nicely, Louisville needs some chaos to happen in the final few weeks of college football in order to earn a playoff bid. Teams like Washington, Oregon, Texas, and Alabama all have better resumes than a team like Louisville. And these teams would need to have disastrous ends to their seasons for Louisville to earn the final CFP bid.
There is still an avenue for the Cardinals to get into the playoff, albeit a highly improbable one. If you are a Louisville fan, I would advise expecting to be disappointed.
5. No. 7 Texas Longhorns
What needs to happen?
- Win out, including a Big 12 Championship
- A loss from Florida State or Washington
- An Alabama loss in the SEC Championship
How likely is it?
Texas defeated Alabama already in a head-to-head matchup. So you may be wondering, why is Alabama more likely to earn a CFP bid than the Longhorns?
Well, Alabama would need to defeat Georgia in the SEC Championship game to even have a chance of a CFP bid. If that happens, I believe it is a win better than any that Texas has on their resume. And recency bias could take over, putting the Crimson Tide slightly over Texas.
That being said, Texas will need some help in order to get into the playoff. A loss from either Washington or Florida State would be a start. A win from Georgia over Alabama in the SEC Championship to take the Tide out of contention would be even better. It isn’t over for the Longhorns whatsoever in terms of their CFP chances. But it may be a bit improbable to say the least.
4. Loser of No. 3 Michigan Wolverines/No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes game in Week 13
What needs to happen?
- A loss from No. 5 Washington or No. 4 Florida State
- For the CFP committee to determine that the Big Ten is more deserving of multiple playoff spots than the Pac-12 is of having one.
- A loss from Alabama against Georgia in the SEC Championship game
How likely is it?
The winner of the Week 13 matchup between these two teams is pretty much guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff. That is almost a certainty.
Things become far more improbable for the loser of this game. Whoever loses this game will not partake in the Big Ten Championship game. This is problematic because several other contenders like Alabama, Washington and Oregon will likely have a chance to impress the CFP committee in their respective conference championship.
As stated above, the loser of Michigan/Ohio State likely needs a loss from Alabama in the SEC Championship game and a loss from undefeated teams like Washington or Florida State.
Even if all of this were to happen, the Wolverines or Buckeyes would still be competing with the likes of Washington or Florida State for the final CFP spot, which they likely would not stack up favorably to.
3. No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide
What needs to happen?
- Avoid any upsets at the end of the regular season
- Defeat Georgia in the SEC Championship game
- Hope for a Florida State or Washington loss
How likely is it?
Alabama has been an afterthought for much of the season due to an early season non-conference loss to Texas. However, the Tide are in an okay position with just two weeks left in the season after a flawless run through conference play thus far.
That has earned them an opportunity to face off against No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship game, which Alabama will need to win in order to get a playoff bid.
Even if the Tide do so, they will likely need one of the other undefeated teams such as Washington or Florida State ahead of them to slip up. Texas could also be a problem for them, considering that the Longhorns have already beaten them in a head-to-head game this year and do sit ahead of them in the current CFP rankings.
It’s not the position that you would typically expect Alabama to be in at this point in the season, but it is too early to count the Tide out of the playoff picture.
2. No. 6 Oregon Ducks
What needs to happen?
- Win out to reach the Pac-12 Championship game
- Defeat Washington in the Pac-12 Championship convincingly
How likely is it?
Much of Oregon’s path is also outlined in my breakdown of Washington. But their road is far more difficult than their Pac-12 counterpart considering the Ducks did already lose to the Huskies this season.
Oregon has some tough competition to even reach the Pac-12 title game. The Ducks will need to defeat No. 11 Oregon State to get there in their final regular season game.
If they do that and convincingly beat Washington in the Pac-12 Championship, they will certainly have a very solid argument to receive the final bid for the College Football Playoff.
1. No. 5 Washington Huskies
What needs to happen?
- Win out the rest of the regular season
- Win in the Pac-12 Championship game, potentially against fellow CFP contender Oregon
How likely is it?
Washington is by far in the best position of any team outside of the current top four in the CFP rankings. As long as they win out, the Huskies will almost surely be getting a playoff spot.
However, there is one pretty big roadblock in their way, which comes in their own conference in No. 6 Oregon. The Pac-12 Championship has not yet been determined. But if Oregon and Washington both win out, they will face off once again in the conference title game.
Washington was able to win a nail-biter in their Week 7 matchup earlier this year. But if Oregon wins the rematch in the conference championship game, perhaps more convincing, there is at least an argument that the Ducks could leapfrog them in the CFP rankings.
That being said, Washington fans should feel great about where the Huskies currently sit, as they control their own destiny, which is something a number of other teams on this list cannot say.
