If you haven’t heard, Cincinnati Reds utility man Scooter Gennett, hit four home runs Tuesday night, becoming only the 17th player ever to do so. His performance was one of the best of all-time and also one of the least likely.
Gennett is a fifth-year veteran best known for on-and-off stints at second base for the lowly Brewers. He entered Tuesday with 38 career home runs in 1,754 plate appearances, or one for every 46 plate appearances. The odds that he’d homer four times in five trips to the plate (based on the fact he homers in about two percent of his plate appearances) are roughly 1 in 50,000.
Here are some things more probable than what Gennett accomplished Tuesday:
- Reds leadoff hitter Zack Cozart hitting four home runs in five plate appearances, based on his career home run rate
- Fellow Cincinnati teammates Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Scott Schebler, Adam Duvall, Devin Mesoraco and Patrick Kievlehan hitting four home runs in five plate appearances
- Reds pitcher Michael Lorenzen hitting four home runs in five plate appearances
- The Reds winning the World Series
- Literally any other team in baseball winning the World Series
- The Padres and White Sox facing off in the World Series
- Dying in a traffic accident
- Dying of poisoning
- Dying of septicemia
- Dying due to asteroid or comet impact, living in the United States.
- Being injured by a toilet
- Winning an Oscar
- Bowling a 300 game.
- Getting a royal flush in Texas Hold ‘Em
- Getting a hole-in-one on a par-3 hole
- Becoming a professional athlete
- Scooter Gennett going 500 plate appearances without a home run
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