The 2016 college football season has been a wild one. In just the last 10 days, we’ve seen the number two, three, four, and five teams in the College Football Playoff rankings all lose. With rivalry week and then the championship games upon us, what mayhem could await?
In some ways, this season has been reminiscent of the crazy 2007 campaign which saw LSU eventually emerge triumphant over Ohio State in the BCS National Championship Game. During that season, eight teams ranked in the top five lost during the final month of the season.
With a few playoff spots up for grabs, let’s put our anarchist hats on and try to dream up the most unusual scenarios that the playoff committee might need to figure out what to do with this season.
1) Can Alabama still make the Playoff if it loses out to finish 11-2?
This is certainly the most extreme example, given just how dominant Alabama has been this season and how far ahead of the field they are. The truth is, they could probably rest their starters in the Iron Bowl this weekend against Auburn, take the loss, and still be the top-ranked team by the committee with one loss.
But what if the unthinkable happens?
What if Alabama loses both of their remaining games to Auburn and Florida in the SEC Championship Game? Would the committee take a two-loss Alabama team who failed to win their conference or a two-loss Florida team that beat them when it counted the most? Sure, the odds of this happening are about as high as Nick Saban leaving Alabama to take up the lead in Hamilton. But still, it’d be the ultimate havoc-wreaking scenario.
The committee clearly doesn’t respect Florida, who sits way down at No. 23 in last week’s rankings. But if they win versus Florida State and Alabama, there’s a chance that the committee could see “SEC Champion” as an automatic entry.
However, if Florida falls to the Seminoles and gets to three losses… there’s a chance that Alabama could conceivably lose both their final games and still make it in. There can only be a maximum of three one-loss teams ahead of them (Ohio State-Michigan winner, Clemson, Washington), and it’s highly likely the Tide would sit at the front of whatever line they’re in, even with two losses in their final two games.
2) Can the Ohio State-Michigan winner miss the playoff?
Many people think that this year’s version of The Game is a de facto national quarterfinal game with No. 2 facing off against No. 3 in the country. Both teams have just one loss and with all the carnage around them, both are sitting very pretty in the playoff picture.
But it’s not that easy.
Maybe the cleanest scenario surrounding The Game is this: Ohio State defeats Michigan at home, Penn State beats Michigan State, and the Buckeyes advance to the Final Four with only one loss without even competing in the Big Ten title game. It’s going to be next to impossible to keep a one-loss Ohio State team out of the Playoff considering, again, a maximum of three other one-loss teams could exist (Alabama, Clemson, Washington) and the Buckeyes will have beaten potentially three teams in the Top 10 at the end of the season.
But what if the Buckeyes win and Penn State loses to Sparty… and then the Buckeyes lose to Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game? That would leave Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan all with two losses and Penn State with three losses. If Clemson, Washington, and Alabama all take care of business (or even if they lose a game but win a conference championship) it’s going to be next to impossible to justify taking a two-loss Big Ten team who didn’t win their conference and Wisconsin could wind up as the conference’s sole representative.
3) Can the Big 12 AND Pac-12 send a school to the playoff?
For pretty much the entire season, it has seemed like the Big 12 and Pac-12 were playing for one spot in the CFP at a maximum. With the threat of the Big Ten sending multiple teams, it has looked like the two conferences would get shutout with Clemson and Alabama going strong and likely to represent the ACC and SEC respectively.
However, there’s a very real chance we see both the Big 12 and Pac-12 carry championship hopes into the playoff.
The best bets are a one-loss Washington team, who can make it through the Apple Cup and Pac-12 title game and a two-loss Oklahoma. If both of those schools win out and just a couple of breaks go their way (say, like the Big Ten example from above and Clemson losing the ACC title game), then it’s definitely a possibility. All these conferences need is just a little bit of luck to go their way.
4) How few conference champions can make the Playoff?
This has been a fun question that’s been tossed around our digital newsroom: Can a scenario exist where no conference champions make the Playoff? It’s the ultimate doomsday scenario, considering the playoff committee has championed conference champions from the start of this entire process.
Let’s say Alabama wins versus Auburn and shockingly loses to Florida. They’re definitely in as a one-loss team. Likewise, Ohio State can make it as a one-loss at-large from the Big Ten without even playing in a conference championship game. That’s two… but it gets a little tricky after that.
Let’s go to the Pac-12 and dream up a scenario where Washington State beats Washington in the Apple Cup, Colorado beats Utah, and the Cougars avenge their loss to the Buffaloes in the Pac-12 title game. That would leave us with a two-loss Washington and everyone else with at least three losses including conference champion Washington State.
How about the ACC? Clemson could beat South Carolina and lose the ACC title game and still end up with two losses and the best playoff case by far, especially with Louisville’s meltdown against Houston.
However, the Big 12 might be the fly in the ointment, considering Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are playing a de facto conference championship game this weekend and one of them will end the season with a conference championship and two losses. Furthermore, the Big Ten champion is likely to have a great case between Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan unless something super, super, suuuuuuper crazy happens and Nebraska wins the conference.
Actually, let’s run with that.
Here is the most insane hypothetical scenario that has precisely 734943591409435754-1 odds to end the 2016 college football season with three at-large teams making the Playoff.
Conference champions: Nebraska (Big 10), Florida (SEC), Virginia Tech (ACC), Washington State (Pac-12), Oklahoma State (Big 12)
1) Alabama 12-1 (W v Auburn, L v Florida)
2) Ohio State 11-1 (didn’t make Big Ten title game)
3) Clemson 11-2 (W v South Carolina, L v UNC/VT)
4) Oklahoma State 10-2 (Big 12 champion)
The irony of the Big 12 sending the only champion to the Playoff shouldn’t be lost on anybody. If you really want an eight- or 16-team playoff to happen, just root for this scenario which we like to call College Football’s Event Horizon.
5) Does any scenario exist where Western Michigan has any hope?
If the entire college football world collapses upon itself into a black hole of upsets and out-of-this-possible-universe scenarios like the one above, could there be any room in a four-team playoff for P.J. Fleck and his heroic band of boat-rowers from Western Michigan? Could we finally see a college football David have a chance against three other Goliaths to do the unthinkable and lift the national championship trophy?
Well, that would be up to the committee to decide and I don’t know what you think, but big-time college football has never been kind to the little guy. It would take a groundswell of support and a complete reversal of everything we know about the sport to make it happen.
If Leicester City can win the Premier League and the Cubs can win the World Series, maybe anything is possible and P.J. Fleck can row the boat all the way to the top. Now that would be the weirdest, wildest scenario of them all.
