Melo Trimble’s last-second three-pointer was dramatic, to be sure. But with Maryland, this kind of experience comes with the territory.
With the seconds counting down in a tie game at Wisconsin, Trimble, the best player on the floor, dribbled a few feet beyond the three-point line and put up a shot. And of course, as is always the case in a close Maryland game, it went in.
Let's just call this "The Shot," courtesy of @TerrapinHoops star Melo Trimble. https://t.co/7tI78Amngl
— Maryland On BTN (@MarylandOnBTN) January 9, 2016
After a shot like that, a few things come to mind:
- Hey that was cool.
- Oh that makes sense. Melo Trimble is a very good player.
- Hey look, Maryland won again. Maryland must be pretty good.
- Wait … Wisconsin is bad this year. How did Maryland need heroics to win that one?
Maryland basketball from the past two seasons has been an enigma. The Terrapins are ranked third in the nation, but they’re almost an anonymous third place, as they haven’t beaten anyone of substance. They lost to North Carolina, and their best win is either at Northwestern or at a neutral site against UConn.
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In a sport where close games are statistically proven to be random, Maryland is 15-1 in games decided by six points or fewer in the past two seasons, with a current No. 14 ranking on KenPom.com. A second round NCAA Tournament exit last year against West Virginia has done Maryland no favors in escaping the “lucky” label.
So what is Maryland? Is this a national title contender, or a team that’s always sort of around, but not on par with the national elite? It’s tough to say right now, but we’ll learn a lot within the month, as the Terrapins visit (Caris LeVert-less) Michigan and Michigan State, plus face Iowa at home.
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That stretch might be our only opportunity to learn about Maryland’s viability as a national title contender. The Terrapins have a very easy schedule, facing Michigan State, Iowa and Indiana only once. Those are the games that will shape the Terps’ image.
Maryland does have a legitimate claim to being considered the No. 1 team in the Big Ten. The Terrapins have, by far, the best single lineup in the Big Ten: do-everything star point guard Melo Trimble, Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon, Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter, three-point shooting forward Jake Layman and five-star freshman center Diamond Stone.
| Player | Points/Game | Off. rating | Effective FG% | Two-point % | Three-point % |
| Diamond Stone | 13.1 | 118.9 | 60.3% | 60.3% | N/A |
| Melo Trimble | 14.8 | 125.1 | 58.2% | 57.0% | 39.7% |
| Robert Carter | 12.6 | 114 | 59.0% | 63.8% | 29.4% |
| Rasheed Sulaimon | 10.4 | 114.7 | 60.7% | 48.4% | 49.2% |
| Jake Layman | 10.7 | 117.7 | 58.6% | 64.0% | 36.4% |
| Team | 78.4 (rank: 83rd) | 114.5 (21st) | 58.4% (4) | 58.6% (3) | 38.6% (36) |
Those are very impressive numbers that seem likely to continue, because Maryland is getting the shots it wants. That lineup has a unique combination of size and athleticism. Layman is a forward who is comfortable shooting outside. Stone is a monster on the boards and in the paint. Sulaimon can drive, but he’s even better as a shooter.
The result is that the Terrapins only take efficient shots, because they always find themselves in position to do so. From Shot Analytics:
Maryland’s players are so physically gifted that they never have to settle for inefficient mid-range shots. If they want to take a three, they take a three. If they want to take a two, they drive straight to the hoop.
If you get good shots, you’ll shoot better, and that’s how Maryland is the fourth-best shooting team in the nation. With numbers like that, the Terps can beat anyone.
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Then how come it seems like they can lose to anyone, too? Despite all of this talent, the Terrapins have had close calls (all wins) against Georgetown, Rider, Illinois State, Penn State and Wisconsin.
The common denominator in all of those games is sloppiness.
The biggest issue is turnover percentage. Maryland turns the ball over on nearly 20 percent of its possessions, ranking 251st in the country. The Terps turned it over on a whopping quarter of their possessions against Wisconsin but still found a way to win.
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That’s what happens when you have the best players on the court — you usually win. And to Maryland’s credit, the Terrapins are evolving to use their best players more often. After barely using Stone early in the season, coach Mark Turgeon leaned on him to essentially win a game against Penn State when everyone else was shooting poorly. That’s a luxury few teams have — leaning on a freshman when seemingly nothing else is going right.
Sloppiness and mental lapses can work against Rider and Illinois State. They can work against Penn State, and even Wisconsin. But they won’t work against this upcoming stretch of teams.
If it doesn’t waste possessions, Maryland might be the most dangerous team in the country, particularly when it has all five of its weapons out on the floor at once. But it’s one thing to be dangerous, and it’s another to be proven.
By the end of January, we’ll know if Maryland can move from the former to the latter permanently.
