The NCAA Tournament is less than two weeks away, and conference play is wrapping up this week. That means the bubble field has shrunk, as the true contenders for the NCAA Tournament have separated themselves from the fringe teams.
Some of the “bubble” teams have firmly secured spots in the NCAA Tournament, such as Wisconsin and Texas Tech, and others, such as St. Joseph’s and Syracuse, are very close to securing spots. For these purposes, those teams are less interesting right now.
The most interesting teams are the eight teams jockeying for the last four spots as teams finish the regular season and start their conference tournaments. There are sure to be upsets that shift this field in the coming week, but for right now, these are the teams that are closest to gaining or losing a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Here’s a closer look at the comparative resumes for the last four teams in and the first four out:
Michigan
http://gty.im/511634132
Record: 20-10, RPI: 59, Good wins: Texas (neutral), Maryland, Purdue, Bad losses: None
The case for the Wolverines: Michigan has done a good job avoiding bad losses, and no loss on their resume can really be considered bad. Their good wins are also very good, coming against Texas, Maryland and Purdue. That might be enough on its own to get Michigan in, but the Wolverines could use another good win.
The case against the Wolverines: Michigan’s RPI isn’t great, and the Wolverines have struggled to beat teams that are better than or equal to them. Could continued losing against the Big Ten’s top tier affect UM? The Wolverines will have to hope that the quality of their best wins outweighs a lack in quantity.
Right or wrong side of the bubble? Right side
UConn
http://gty.im/508480160
Record: 20-10, RPI: 55, Good wins: Michigan (neutral), at Texas, SMU, Tulsa, Bad losses: None
The case for the Huskies: Hooray for no bad losses! The good new for UConn is that it checks a lot of the committee’s losses. Play a tough schedule? Check. Pick up some good wins both in-conference and out-of-conference? Check. Avoid bad losses? Check. That’s not all of the committee’s criteria, but it’s probably enough to get the Huskies in.
The case against the Huskies: UConn might not have any bad losses, but the Huskies haven’t been very impressive in conference play, routinely losing to the rest of the teams around them in the conference standings. They’ve lost three of four since February 20, including opportunities for good wins against SMU and Cincinnati, and the opportunity for a differentiating win against Houston.
Right or wrong side of the bubble? Right side
Cincinnati
http://gty.im/508776392
Record: 21-9, RPI: 51, Good wins: at VCU, at UConn, UConn, Bad losses: at Memphis
The case for the Bearcats: Cincinnati’s resume is extraordinarily “meh,” with no great wins and no very bad losses. However, they at least tried to play some decent teams in non-conference season, facing both George Washington and Nebraska on a neutral floor, and also facing VCU, Iowa State and Xavier. The committee could like that scheduling philosophy.
The case against the Bearcats: Cincinnati has yet to prove it can beat a great team. Of course, the Bearcats can be competitive against good teams — they lost to Iowa State by two and Xavier by 10 — but the committee doesn’t look at margin of victory. Nothing about this resume wows anyone.
Right or wrong side of the bubble? Right side
Tulsa
Now THIS is how you dance at a #GIFParty!
Hey @TUMBasketball, think we can get him to break this out on Sat? pic.twitter.com/7QIPrIhdV1
— Tulsa Hurricane (@TulsaHurricane) March 3, 2016
Record: 19-10, RPI: 39, Good wins: at SMU, Wichita State, at UConn, Cincinnati, Temple Bad losses: Oral Roberts, at Memphis
The case for the Golden Hurricane: Tulsa has a solid combination of everything. The record is just fine, as is the RPI. There are some bad losses, but that’s bound to happen for any bubble team, and they’re balanced out by pretty good wins, including at SMU, against Wichita State and against a number of other bubble teams.
The case against the Golden Hurricane: Everything about the team’s resume is “meh” — the RPI and record are fine, but nothing spectacular. There is no win over a great team, though the SMU win is close, and the Golden Hurricane didn’t play any elite team in non-conference season, which could be a knock on them.
Right or wrong side of the bubble? Right side
St. Bonaventure
http://gty.im/511428462
Record: 21-7, RPI: 29, Good wins: at Dayton, St. Joseph’s, at St. Joseph’s, Bad losses: at LaSalle, at Duquesne, at Siena
The case for the Bonnies: The best thing St. Bonaventure has going for it is an RPI of 29. RPI is margin-of-victory blind, which means it identifies strength of resumes, but not strength of teams. That helps St. Bonaventure, which has a number of decent wins, not many losses and good wins at Dayton and against St. Joseph’s twice. It’s not hard to make a case for the Bonnies when ignoring the advanced stats (KenPom.com has them ranked 73rd), and luckily, the committee doesn’t use advanced stats.
The case against the Bonnies: Those losses are baaaaaad. And you could add in Hofstra, too, though they are better than they get credit for. Add in that St. Bonaventure doesn’t have great wins, and it’s no wonder the advanced stats don’t love them and don’t really give them much credit for all of their wins against merely decent teams.
Right or wrong side of the bubble? Wrong side
Florida
http://gty.im/501139324
Record: 17-13, RPI: 57, Good wins: St. Joseph’s (neutral), West Virginia, Bad losses: at Tennessee
The case for the Gators: With Florida, you pretty much know what you’re going to get — a team capable of maybe winning a game in the NCAA Tournament. The Gators put together a very tough non-conference schedule, and even though they lost almost all of those games (against Purdue, Miami, Michigan State and Florida State), the committee will like that effort. They’ve also avoided horrible losses, with their worst loss coming at Tennessee.
The case against the Gators: At some point, you can’t do exactly what is expected. Florida pulled an upset against West Virginia, but they Gators had no other great wins. They’ve currently lost four straight, missing opportunities to pick up good wins at South Carolina, or against Vanderbilt or Kentucky. They probably need a good win in the SEC Tournament to get in.
Right or wrong side of the bubble? Wrong side
George Washington
http://gty.im/509397258
Record: 22-8, RPI: 60, Good wins: Virginia, Seton Hall, at VCU, Bad wins: at Saint Louis, at DePaul, Richmond
The case for the Colonials: George Washington has some awesome wins. The Virginia win is the best among all bubble teams, but the non-conference win against Seton Hall is looking better as the season goes on. The win at VCU is also no slouch. If the committee values teams that have proven themselves against top competition, even if a bit inconsistently, then George Washington will be in good shape.
The case against the Colonials: The RPI isn’t great, which is a problem, but the biggest issue is the bad losses. Win even one of the games against Saint Louis, DePaul and Richmond, and GW would be in much better shape. But those losses could end up being killers. The committee has generally valued good wins over a schedule that avoids potential losses altogether, but this might be too many losses to overlook.
Right or wrong side of the bubble? Wrong side
Alabama
http://gty.im/498788114
Record: 17-12, RPI: 68, Good wins: Wichita State, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, at Florida, Bad losses: at Auburn, Mississippi State, at Ole Miss, Arkansas
The case for the Crimson Tide: If the season ended in mid-February, Alabama would probably be in! The Crimson Tide have decent non-conference wins against Wichita State and Notre Dame, and they had a five-game winning streak in the SEC that included wins over Texas A&M, Florida and LSU. Alabama’s resume certainly has more good wins than other teams’ resumes.
The case against the Crimson Tide: The season didn’t end in mid-February. Since, then Alabama has lost three of four, and two of those losses were pretty bad, against Mississippi State and Arkansas. The RPI isn’t very good, as a result of too many losses against bottom-tier SEC teams.
Right or wrong side of the bubble? Wrong side
Other teams to watch
http://gty.im/507816252
Right side: Temple, Syracuse, Oregon State, St. Joseph’s, Vanderbilt, St. Mary’s
Wrong side: Gonzaga, LSU, Washington
There are certainly other teams with a chance to make a late season run and get onto the right side of the bubble, especially if they go deep into their respective conference tournaments, which are structured to pile up good wins in short order. The annual spoilers that win their conference titles with non-tournament resumes will undoubtedly shrink the bubble for not just these teams, but those who may currently be in the tournament right now as well.
In other words, teams like Gonzaga, LSU and Washington have work to do, but still have a chance to get into the tournament with some nice late-season wins. Teams like Temple, Syracuse and the others not just in the field right now but ahead of those last four in, have to keep winning as well, because if the bubble shrinks any more, they could find themselves on the wrong side when it pops.
