From day one, the ACC’s non-geographic divisions (Atlantic, Coastal) have been panned as a messy and illogical alignment for the league. And that was when there were two divisions of six apiece. With the addition of Syracuse and Pittsburgh in 2013 (and the Maryland-for-Louisville swap in 2014), the setup became even more unwieldy at seven teams per division and minimal crossover meetings.
Competitive balance has also shown itself to be far from ideal. Every year since 2012, Clemson and Florida State (both Atlantic Division residents) have been the ACC’s top-ranked teams in the final AP Poll. The Tigers and Seminoles are also the only teams to win the conference’s football championship since 2011.
Louisville’s appeared to have broken through a bit this season, but the challenge to do so is far greater for the rest of the Atlantic. Boston College, NC State, Syracuse, and Wake Forest all lack the upside of the other three Atlantic programs. Between them, they have just three ACC Championship Game berths and one win (Wake Forest in 2006) since the game began in 2005.
The exception to that rule could be significant as a roadmap, however.
While Wake Forest’s surprising conference title run came 10 years ago under a different coach (Jim Grobe, currently at Baylor), the team is using similar strategies to improve under Dave Clawson. Clawson, who arrived in 2014, was slow to build over the first two years in terms of wins (3-9 in ’14 and ’15). However, the quality of play showed glimmers of improvement. Those glimmers have started to shine in 2016, most recently in a 28-9 victory over Syracuse that seemed to put some distance between the two programs’ current stations in the league). The Demon Deacons are 5-1 right now and on the precipice of their first bowl bid since 2011.
This is what Clawson typically does, if you’re not familiar. At Fordham, his Rams went from 0-11 in year one to 10-3 by year four. Richmond was 3-8 when he started, then 11-3 in year four. Bowling Green was a 10-3 MAC champion in year five, before he left for Winston-Salem.
As SB Nation’s Blogger So Dear points out, when Clawson arrived at Wake Forest he immediately identified a talent deficit and a strength and conditioning program that needed improvement. He got to work on upgrading those aspects of the Demon Deacons football program, while the school handled it’s part of the deal. Wake opened McCreary Field House, an 80,000-square foot indoor practice facility, in February of 2016. The building costs $21 million and now serves as the beacon to which Clawson can recruit to, not that he wasn’t doing a pretty admirable job of that already.
Pulling a recruiting class together on the fly in the early months of 2014, he still managed the country’s 65th-rated class according to the 247 Sports composite rankings. In 2015, the Deacons rose up to 53rd, then took a slight dip to 60th in 2016. As of this writing, they’re 51st in the class of 2017 rankings with the potential to rise.
Though Wake is situated in the talent-rich state of North Carolina, they’re at best fourth in the pecking order there (behind UNC, Duke and NC State). They’re also in competition with fellow in-state FBS programs Appalachian State, Charlotte, and East Carolina, as well as many other schools in surrounding states as well. So while they can and do attract kids from their home state, Wake Forest’s private school status also shows them expanding to Florida, Virginia, Georgia, and South Carolina for talent under Clawson. No surprise, this type of rising recruiting in nearby states (especially Florida) is what got the program to prominence under Grobe, too.
This type of program-building is not just a guideline for how Wake can succeed but one for BC, NC State, and Syracuse as well. Each of those schools faces significant challenges toward contending in the stacked Atlantic Division, but Wake has seemingly faced theirs head on with the Clawson hire. You can’t out-recruit FSU or Clemson (and maybe not Louisville either), but you can still be creative with where and how you find talent (and how you go about hiring coaches). Wake found itself in steep competition for North Carolina recruits, so it pivoted to other states.
At NC State, there’s a similar struggle to the Deacons’ in terms of recruiting competition. Syracuse and Boston College have very small local talent pools to pull from, and must look elsewhere to fill out their rosters with Power Five-caliber players. Recent results from both Northeast schools show just how much of a challenge that’s proven to be. They’ve combined for five wins in 12 games so far this season, and have 22 combined wins since the start of 2014.
The other part of the equation (other than talent) is scheduling. Take a look at how Wake Forest schedules, and there’s a clear desire to produce wins that eventually grow the ability to attract talent and more program prestige. This year, Wake opened the season with Tulane, Delaware, Indiana, and Army, and went 4-0.
Not only are the Deacons fully-scheduled in non-conference play through 2021, but every one of those seasons feature at least three — if not four – should-be victories. The only exceptions are perhaps the Notre Dame years (mandatory, per the ACC) and the silly “non-conference” games against the Tar Heels in 2019 and 2021. The latter is yet another reason the league’s divisional structure is terrible, by the way.
Patience. Scheduling. Investment. Recruiting.
All four of those items are pillars of any program looking to rebuild, and specifically, any lower-tier major conference program looking to find respectability and stability amidst a conference of greater powers. Surrounded by behemoths like Florida State and Clemson (and Louisville, one would venture), schools like Wake Forest aren’t flush with chances to contend for division titles in the Atlantic. Surprises can happen, mind you. But most years, the Deacons (and BC, NCSU, and SU) are competing for fourth in the division.
That’s not a bad place to be. And if you get the scheduling aspect of things right, you’re looking at a ceiling of about 9-3 before a bowl. Most schools would kill for that sort of ceiling, including all four of these “lesser” names in the Atlantic.
Wake Forest isn’t guaranteed to win nine games per year with or without Dave Clawson, and the same goes for BC, NC State, and SU. The Deacons have created and followed their own roadmap, however, and it’s those programs’ best chance to maintain an entertaining football product without competing for an unlikely national championship. Self-awareness is the first step to happiness in college football. And if you’re the Demon Deacons at this point, you’re already off to a running start.
