Super Bowl LVIII is set to take place on Sunday between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers in what is expected to be a highly competitive matchup.
These two teams are fairly familiar with each other when it comes to the big game, as this is a rematch of Super Bowl LIV in 2020, albeit with some different pieces on both teams in this year’s matchup.
The 49ers are the favorites heading into this year’s game, sitting anywhere from a 1.5 to 2.5-point favorite depending on the sportsbook you are looking at.
So, will the 49ers get their revenge against the Chiefs this time around? Or will the Chiefs become just the ninth team ever to win back-to-back Super Bowls?
For the purposes of this article, here are five reasons that it will be the Chiefs who get to hoist the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday night.
1. Significant QB experience edge
Both teams appear to be extremely well-rounded, which is what makes this game such a closely lined-matchup on paper. However, if there was one distinguishing factor to separates these teams, it may be the gap in experience at the quarterback position.
49ers star quarterback Brock Purdy is just in his second year in the NFL. And while he has looked poised in every big game up until this point, could we see him regress just a bit against a fierce Chiefs defense with one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time on the other sideline?
History would tell you that this is certainly possible, as only four other quarterbacks (Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson) have ever won the Super Bowl in their second year in the NFL.
Of the 34 quarterbacks who have ever won a Super Bowl, the average number of seasons that it took for them to win their first-ever Super Bowl is 5.9 seasons.
This certainly at least raises the argument of Purdy just being a bit out of his league when it comes to experience before reaching the big game. And considering his opposition, Patrick Mahomes, will be playing in his fourth Super Bowl on Sunday, Purdy certainly has his work cut out for him to win his first Super Bowl championship.
2. Slow starting 49ers
When you look at how these two teams got to this point, you will find that the 49ers may have found some good luck on their postseason journey.
Against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship game, they found themselves facing a 17-point deficit after the first half.
Jahmyr Gibbs getting loose for the Lions TD!
21-7 Detroit! 🏈🦁⚡️pic.twitter.com/7llMsxEjsg
— The Comeback (@thecomeback) January 29, 2024
Credit to them for overcoming this to win the game. But if they have a similarly slow start against the Chiefs, chances are they will not be able to overcome this against a quarterback as great as Patrick Mahomes.
It will be crucial for the 49ers to get off to a good start in this game if they want to have any chance of winning this game. And thus far this postseason, the 49ers haven’t shown the ability to get out to a commanding lead.
3. Chiefs rushing vs. 49ers run defense
The matchup between the Chiefs’ rushing attack and the 49ers’ rush defense in this game could go a long way in deciding who will win this game.
While most see the Chiefs as a primarily pass-heavy offense, it has actually been their rushing attack led by Isiah Pacheco that has made the difference for them in many games this season.
Isiah Pacheco gives the Chiefs the lead back!
What a game in Buffalo. 🏈🔥pic.twitter.com/TJq7m7L8rL
— The Comeback (@thecomeback) January 22, 2024
In three postseason games for the Chiefs, the team has rushed for over 140 yards, which drastically helps open up their play-action passing game down the field.
Meanwhile, the 49ers, who had a stout rush defense in the regular season, have struggled heavily in that department in their two postseason games, allowing an average of 159 rushing yards per game in the playoffs.
If the Chiefs can get their rushing attack going in this matchup, it could be a long night for the 49ers as a whole, as this will also keep their offense off the field which is always a key in any game.
4. Keeping Patrick Mahomes upright
A key matchup to watch in this game will be how the Chiefs offensive line will be able to protect Patrick Mahomes against arguably the best pass rush in all of football from the 49ers.
Thus far this postseason, the Chiefs have done an excellent job in pass protection, only allowing two sacks in their three postseason games thus far.
To put this into perspective, the only other quarterback to play in three postseason games this year, Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff, was sacked seven times in his three playoff games.
It has also been against some very tough competition, particularly the Baltimore Ravens who led the NFL in sacks in the regular season this year.
Meanwhile, the 49ers defense actually hasn’t generated all that much pressure as of late, recording only two total sacks in their two postseason games.
5. Kicking game
Kickers are largely thought of as afterthoughts by most fans in the NFL. But they ultimately can play a big factor in any game. And on paper, the Chiefs hold a pretty massive advantage at the position with Harrison Butker at the helm.
Butker ranks behind only Justin Tucker in career field goal-make percentage at 89.140%. But on top of that, he has been even better than that this postseason, making all seven of his field goal attempts and every extra point.
He also has the experience of kicking in the Super Bowl, which shows that he won’t fold under the pressure in the big moments of this game.
On the other hand, the 49ers have had their fair share of struggles when it comes to rookie kicker Jake Moody this season. Moody has also particularly been shaky in the postseason, making just three of five attempts in their two playoff games.
Jake Moody misses a 48-yard field goal. Not going well for the 49ers through two drives of this game. pic.twitter.com/Lf1gXZgShl
— The Comeback (@thecomeback) January 29, 2024
You never know when you will need your kicker to make a big kick in the biggest moment. And Chiefs fans will certainly be far more relaxed during Butker’s attempts than 49ers fans will be during Moody’s attempts in Super Bowl LVIII.
