Heading into the MLB trade deadline this July, one of the most fascinating teams was the Kansas City Royals. After winning back to back AL pennants in 2015 and 2015 (and the World Series in 2015), Kansas City slumped to 81-81 last season. With Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas all scheduled to hit free agency following the 2017 season, the Royals had an important decision to make at the trade deadline this year – do they blow their core up, or do they try to make one last run at a championship?
The Royals opted to buy at the deadline, bringing in Melky Cabrera from the White Sox and a trio of relievers from the Padres.
Their gamble didn’t pay off. Over the last two months, the Royals are 18-27. They’ve gone from seven games above .500 on July 30th, the day before the deadline, to three games under on September 18th. Only the Tigers have a worst record among AL teams (15-30) than the Royals since August 1st. Kansas City has gone from being two games behind the Indians for the AL Central lead and leading the race for the second AL Wild Card by 2.5 games to being eliminated from AL Central title contention and five games back of the second AL Wild Card.
With 13 games left to play, the Royals are three games under .500 and are clinging to playoff hopes with an elimination number of nine.
They already have $107 million allotted to their payroll next season, covering just nine active players (and one buyout). Cabrera and Trevor Cahill, both acquired at the deadline, are free agents, while fellow July acquisitions Ryan Buchter and Brandon Maurer are still under control for four and two more seasons, respectively. Jason Vargas, whose ERA rose from 2.62 in the first half to 7.11 in the second half and looked like a prime candidate to be dealt in the midst of what was then a career year, is also a free agent. In addition to the aforementioned core trio of Cain, Hosmer, and Moustakas (who are three of the top four Royals hitters in fWAR this season), stalwart shortstop Alcides Escobar is also going to be hitting the market this winter.
Ian Kennedy could opt out of his contract after this season and forfeit the $49 million owed to him over the next three seasons, but his 5.45 ERA means he’s probably sticking around. Alex Gordon was re-signed after the 2015 World Championship and is still owed $44 million over the next two years, and he’s put together a disastrous .209/.286/.307 season with just seven home runs.
And it’s not as if the Royals have much *else* to trade if they want to embark upon a full rebuild, either. Whit Merrifield has put together a fantastic season, but is still in his pre-arb years and will likely be a building block for years to come. Danny Duffy just signed a contract extension before this season. Salvador Perez isn’t going anywhere, even though his new contract isn’t as much of a bargain as his old contract. Jason Hammel, Brandon Moss, and Jorge Soler don’t have much value following disappointing seasons.
But Kansas City still does have a strong bullpen they could tear apart – Kelvin Herrera will be a free agent after 2018, and while his ERA has spiked his year, his walk and strikeout rates are close to where they were in both 2014 and 2015. Former Braves starter Mike Minor has had a great year working out of relief, but his $10 million mutual option could be a stumbling block given how hefty it is for a reliever. Joakim Soria could also draw some interest at $9 million in 2018.
The Royals had a great run, and they made the mistake of trying to prolong the run instead of pulling the plug early. Going forward, the team is probably going to look a lot different and will be years away from seriously contending again in the AL Central. Let the late 2000s Phillies be a lesson to all teams out there – it’s better to start rebuilding (or retooling) too early than too late.
