After a week of absolute chaos near the top of the polls, the probability that a two-loss team could make its way into the College Football Playoff’s top four went up quite a bit. Granted, that two-loss team will need to win its conference to have a shot at the Playoff. But when you look at this week’s rankings, there are a large number of two-loss teams knocking on the door.
Every team from No. 7 down to No. 12 is a two-loss team with a shot at winning its league (and improving its resume in the process). Three more schools — No. 18 Nebraska, No. 22 Washington State and No. 23 Florida — sit much further outside the top spots, but get ample opportunities to change that in the coming weeks.
So which teams have the best chance to be the first two-loss team to crash the College Football Playoff’s top four? We rank the contenders:
1. Florida Gators
Why? The resume’s nothing right now, but the next three weeks would bring road games at LSU and Florida State, plus Alabama in the SEC Championship Game if they win out. Toss in a quality loss to Tennessee and a 10-2 Florida team would possess the best resume of all the two-loss teams.
Why not? The Gators were handled by both Tennessee and Arkansas, and would’ve done nothing until the final three weeks to encourage any sort of Playoff chances. If you’re allowing a full year of work to dictate the top four, Florida shouldn’t be ushered in for a three-week season.
2. Wisconsin Badgers
Why? Wins over Playoff-ranked teams like LSU and Nebraska buoy them, as do close losses to Michigan and Ohio State. They also have an easy path to the Big Ten Championship Game – if they beat Purdue and Minnesota, they’re in vs. one of Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State.
Why not? LSU and Nebraska have room to drop still. And if Michigan loses to Ohio State, Wisconsin’s facing a two-loss team for the B1G championship. Even if they win, do they deserve to be there over two teams they lost to?
3. Washington State Cougars
Why? Going unbeaten in league play would be a feat few could match, and it would include wins over Colorado, Washington and Stanford, and then one of Colorado, Utah or USC in the Pac-12 Championship – quite the collection of victories. Their two losses (EWU, Boise State) are by a combined six points.
Why not? Well for starters, Wazzu lost to (FCS school) Eastern Washington. They’ve also played bad teams far too close for much of the year, with tight wins over the likes of UCLA, Arizona State and Oregon State. If “game control” is still a thing, they’re getting dinged.
4. Utah Utes
Why? The USC win looks better by the week, and taking home the Pac-12 would require a victory over Colorado and a potential make-up win over Washington in Santa Clara. If they can beat the Huskies in the rematch, that erases the first loss and vaults them over nearly every other two-loss team.
Why not? Utah’s loss to Cal isn’t great, and there’s always the possibility that they’re facing fellow two-loss team Washington State in the Pac-12 title game instead. A resume largely banking on USC and Colorado wins doesn’t sound as sturdy as some other cases.
5. Penn State Nittany Lions
Why? The win over Ohio State was already its best resume item, and now it could send PSU to the Big Ten Championship Game if the Buckeyes upset Michigan in two weeks. That is, if PSU wins out. There, they’ll meet another well-regarded team from the West, in either Wisconsin or Nebraska.
Why not? Getting killed by Michigan and losing to Pitt hurt, as does the fact that Ohio State is their only high-quality win. Beating another two-loss team in the B1G title game also fails to carry a ton of weight. They need the Wolverines to lose for them to even play for a conference championship.
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Why? They’d own wins over both Oklahoma and West Virginia (both in current top 15). And the committee may throw away the loss to Central Michigan given the fact that the play the Chips won on never should’ve happened. If recent hot streaks are favored, Oklahoma State’s unbeaten since October 1.
Why not? Even if the CMU loss shouldn’t have happened, it did. The loss to Baylor’s looking worse by the week, too. And again, the lack of a conference championship game in the Big 12 only hurts the Cowboys’ chances further vs. other two-loss teams here.
7. Colorado Buffaloes
Why? If Colorado wins out, it’ll mean triumphs over Utah and potentially both Washington schools to win the Pac-12. Their resume looks barren of marquee wins now, but the next three weeks could change that in a hurry.
Why not? See above. The Buffs’ current claim to fame is a pair of losses (to USC and Michigan). Beating Wazzu knocks the Cougars out of the top 25. Beating Utah hurts the strength of that win. Even if they beat Washington in the Pac-12 title game, the Huskies are the most lightly regarded top-six team right now.
8. Oklahoma Sooners
Why? The Sooners are 7-0 since October started, and have yet to lose in league play – they’re one of just three teams (Alabama and Washington State are the others) that can make that claim. Oklahoma also has highly-ranked opponents coming up in West Virginia and Oklahoma State to bolster their resume.
Why not? The Big 12 doesn’t have a conference championship game this year, and if they win out, the next-best league team has (at best) two losses. Houston’s no longer a high-quality loss, and getting run over by Ohio State isn’t anything to brag about either.
9. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Why? The Huskers’ only losses are to Ohio State and Wisconsin. That’s something to hang your hat on. A win over one of Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State in the B1G Championship also helps boost the overall resume past where it is now.
Why not? Nebraska’s best regular season win may end up being Wyoming. And even a win over Michigan or Penn State isn’t erasing the 62-3 drubbing this team suffered at the hands of the Buckeyes. They’ve played it close to the vest since week three and the committee likely notices.
