It is still a little too early to begin our Bubble Watch or to look at specific scenarios for the College Football Playoff. By my count, there are still 33 teams alive in the CFP race. That’s too many to look at individual scenarios or rooting interests for, and there are just way too many possible permutations to really create any one scenario.
What we can do at this point, though, is look at conferences as a whole. Every conference has its dream scenario, and every one has its doomsday scenario. So we are going to look at the Power 5 conferences and highlight those best-case and worst-case scenarios.
SEC
Path to the Playoff
Teams still alive: Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina
The SEC is in excellent Playoff shape. Alabama and Georgia are both undefeated and look dominant. Obviously, the SEC’s best path to the Playoff is for one of those teams to go undefeated. Even if that doesn’t happen, though, the conference seems pretty safe. A 12-1 Alabama or Georgia team should be an easy lock too.
Of course, the SEC has to be dreaming about two Playoff teams at this point. That would take some help from the rest of the country, but the conference definitely wants to see both Alabama and Georgia roll into the conference championship game at 12-0. If that meeting happens — especially if Alabama wins — we will see an SEC that likely has teams with two of the best resumes in the country. We would need to see how the rest of the country shakes out to really judge this scenario, but it’s definitely a possibility.
Path from the Playoff
It is really hard to construct a realistic scenario right now in which the SEC doesn’t make the Playoff. Maybe if Alabama loses to LSU, who runs the table, it could come close. Or if Georgia loses two games (a conference game and the rivalry game to Georgia Tech) but comes back to win the SEC Championship Game. Or if Alabama miraculously loses two games but wins the SEC.
Alabama’s resume is actually the weakest of the bunch — it’s possible that the Tide could roll into Atlanta at 12-0 and yet have zero wins over ranked teams. Even so, it’s hard to see a 12-1 Alabama team left out after last week’s chaos. The SEC has no realistic doomsday scenario, but unrealistic things happen all the time in this sport.
What SEC fans really do not want to see is too much parity. If the teams continue to cannibalize each other, this conference may be left with only two ranked teams by November. A few teams need to rise to the top. Georgia is golden with its non-conference win over Notre Dame, but Alabama’s victory over Florida State no longer seems very valuable. It’s unlikely that the Tide will need a resume booster, but the conference would like to see Texas A&M, LSU, or Mississippi State reach nine wins just in case.
Big Ten
Path to the Playoff
Teams still alive: Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
The Big Ten East is sitting pretty, with four teams that only have one loss. As long as a team emerges from this gauntlet with fewer than two losses, the Big Ten should easily secure a Playoff berth. Any of those four teams running the table from here would essentially be a lock. All of them played a good enough non-conference opponent that there is no concern of schedule strength weighing them down. (Well, Pitt hasn’t panned out for Penn State, but the Nittany Lions would have at least three ranked wins even if they finish 12-1, and possibly as many as five.) Also, a 13-0 Wisconsin team should be a Playoff lock.
In short, the Big Ten is safe as long as one of five teams runs the table.
Like the SEC, the Big Ten may hold out tiny pipe dreams of getting two teams in the Playoff. If Wisconsin and Penn State are both 12-0 coming into the Big Ten Championship Game, seeing both in the Playoff isn’t unimaginable. Wisconsin would need to win that game (in a close one) for it to have a chance of becoming reality, but that is certainly Jim Delaney’s favorite dream right now.
Path from the Playoff
The Big Ten West is the conference’s worst enemy right now. Iowa has already taken both Penn State and Michigan State to the wire. The Hawkeyes still get a shot at Ohio State (at home) and Wisconsin (on the road). If they win even one of those games, the conference will be holding its breath.
Also, a one-loss Wisconsin is the conference’s worst nightmare. The Badgers have a very weak schedule, and will be lucky to enter December with even two ranked wins. If Wisconsin can finish 12-1 with three ranked wins, they’re probably pretty safe. But that would probably require Iowa, Minnesota, or Indiana finishing 8-4 and still ranked. (Interestingly enough, an 8-4 Indiana team with a win over Michigan State would have a shockingly solid resume, but I digress.) Seeing as it is unlikely for Wisconsin to have three ranked wins, the Badgers would be in real trouble at 12-1. The conference wants Wisconsin to start the season 12-0, just to be safe.
There are scenarios where the Big Ten East beats itself up and it ends up with a two-loss champ, but those don’t seem too likely at the moment. Penn State winning its next two games (against Michigan and Ohio State) would make the conference breath pretty easily. If the Lions split those, though, then the idea of a two-loss champion becomes much more realistic.
Notre Dame
https://youtu.be/5IKDdsBz22k
The Irish are alive, and their path is very simple. Win out, they are almost certainly in. Lose one more, and they are looking at the Orange Bowl. It doesn’t get easier than that. We could make it a little more complicated if we want to — Notre Dame does have particular scenarios it wants, especially regarding Georgia and Michigan State. We’ll leave those for next week, though, if the Irish can beat USC first.
