NBABy Yaron Weitzman on

We know LeBron James isn’t thrilled with the current state of the Cavaliers. And it’s not just the cryptic passive aggressive tweets. Take this quote James gave to the media following Cleveland’s disappointing 106-103 home loss earlier this week to a Grizzlies squad missing Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph and Mike Conley, among others.

“I can sit up here and say that we’re a team that’s ready to start the playoffs tomorrow, but we’re not,” James said. “We’re still learning, we still have things that happen on the court that just, that shouldn’t happen.”

There are lots of reasons for LeBron to be worried. The Cavaliers do have the leagues fourth best offensive rating, and are playing a bit faster and scoring a bit more efficiently since Tyronn Lue took over. But the defense has completely fallen off (104.4 points allowed per 100 possessions, a five-point dropoff from what the team was allowing under David Blatt) while many of the old problems still exist.

Kevin Love still looks lost and his numbers have actually gotten worse since Lue was handed the job. The team’s effort isn’t always there. James still can’t hit jumpshots and he knows it.

The Cavs, of course, are still 46-18 after Thursday’s win over Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, are still in first place in the East, and are still the runaway favorites to represent the conference in the Finals. Part of that is because they have LeBron — a star who hasn’t fallen in to an Eastern Conference team since 2010 – and part of that is because the conference is so unimpressive.

And yet over the past couple months five Eastern Conference teams have emerged as quality threats. Do any of them have a legitimate shot at taking out the Cavaliers in a seven-game series? Let’s take a look.

CHARLOTTE HORNETS (35-28)

Why they can beat the Cavs: Because they have a great defense and a big time scorer. Of course, if these two teams were to to meet in a playoff series Charlotte would be the HEAVY underdog. And for good reason. That said, Steve Clifford’s crew is playing as well as any non-Oakland based team in the league right now. They’re second in point differential over the past 15 games and have the league’s fourth best defensive rating over the span. Kemba Walker has finally learned how to shoot (38 percent from deep), which has made him nearly impossible to guard and transformed him into a sort of Damian Lillard-lite, a player with a killer crossover and beautiful pull-up jumper who can now also burn opponents from the outside. And let’s not forget about Nicolas Batum’s brilliance as a playmaker and all-around threat.

The Hornets can defend (Clifford’s teams always can) and they have enough firepower to get baskets when they need. They’ll be a tough matchup for anyone in the playoffs, including LeBron’s Cavs.

Likelihood of beating the Cavs: Not high at all. Batum is a solid defender but doesn’t have the strength to contain LeBron. And as good as Walker has been the Hornets would need him to average 40 points a game to have a chance. It’s hard to see that happening against a Cavaliers team that we’ve seen defend well in the past and that we can assume will tighten up a bit come playoff time.

 

ATLANTA HAWKS (36-28)

https://twitter.com/ATLHawks/status/708291323296673792

Why they can beat the Cavs: Because they have the league’s second best defense. Atlanta is holding opponents to an impressive 99.1 points per 100 possessions and has been ever better of late. Last season the Hawks rode precision passing and knockdown shooting to an impressive 60-win season. The offense has fallen off a bit this year, but Atlanta’s defense is just as good.

Likelihood of beating the Cavs: The Hawks’ problems have come offense. Jeff Teague hasn’t been as dynamic as he was last season. Kent Bazemore is having a strong year but hasn’t quite filled the departed DeMarre Carroll’s shoes. And then there’s Kyle Korver, shooting just 39 percent from deep. Last year he connected on 49 percent of his three-pointers, the year before it was 47 percent. He’s had numerous injuries, is about to turn 35 and seems to be slowly breaking down. It sounds funny to say, since Al Horford and Paul Millsap are clearly the Hawks’ two best players, but Korver’s ability to tilt entire defenses towards him is what ignited the Hawks last season. That has not been the case this year and unless he rediscovers the touch the Hawks are toast the moment they face a team that can score.

 

BOSTON CELTICS (39-26)

Why they can beat the Cavs: And now we reach the truly interesting part of this hypothetical. Again, on paper the Cavs look better than all these teams. Remember, though, we’re operating under the assumption that something is off in Cleveland, that perhaps some strong but less talented bunch has enough firepower and enough defense to pull off the upset. The Hornets and Hawks were thrown into this conversation due to their strong recent play. But it’s the Celtics, Raptors and Heat who really get you thinking.

The case for Boston is a simple one: they have the league’s fourth best defensive rating and tenth best offensive rating; ranking in the top-10 in both categories is usually a good place to start when looking for true contenders. The Celtics also have an explosive dynamo who can carry an offense in Isaiah Thomas (21.8 points, 6.6 assists per game), a plethora of scorers, a number of pesky defenders and also one of the game’s top coaches. They’d enter a playoff series well prepared.

Jae Crowder has all the skills and physical attributes you’d look for in a LeBron defender, though it hasn’t made much of a difference in the past (James is averaging 27.3 point over three matchups this season) and you can be sure Stevens would have him sagging of LeBron and conceding jump shots. On paper the Cavs look much stronger than the Celtics. But so do many teams. And yet here Boston is, sporting the East’s third best record and getting better as the season moves along.

Likelihood of beating the Cavs: All that’s great, and Stevens vs. Lue is a major mismatch. But Boston would still be entering this series severely undermanned from a talent perspective. It’s one thing to rely on a 5’9 player like Thomas during the regular season; it’s another thing to ask him to get you baskets in the playoffs when things tighten up. Thomas is the only Boston player who can consistently create his own shot. What happens to the Celtics if the Cavaliers take him out? Stevens is brilliant, but there’s only so much magic he can conjure up. The only way the Cetlics pull off the upset is if LeBron’s tries to beat them by taking the jump shots they concede him. It’s hard to see that happening.

 

TORONTO RAPTORS (42-20)

Why they can beat the Cavs: Because they have the best backcourt in the conference and are the only Eastern Conference team who can match Cleveland blow for blow. DeMar DeRozan has emerged as one of the league’s premier two-guards. He’s also a blast from the past. He doesn’t shoot many three pointers and he’s a bully in the paint; he’s is third in the league in free-throws per game and first in drives to the basket, per NBA.com.

And then there’s Kyle Lowry, another one of these point guards who can get into the paint whenever he wants and also connect from deep. The Raptors present all sorts of mismatch issues and are averaging 107.1 points per 100 possessions, the league’s fifth-best mark. And any time you have an efficient offense with two guards capable of getting points anytime they want you have a chance in the playoffs.

Likelihood of beating the Cavs: The issue for Toronto is the defense. The team made some scheme changes over the offseason — it hired Andy Greer, a Tom Thibodeau disciple, and instituted a more conservative approach that scrapped anything involving lead-footed big men like Jonas Valanciunas chasing around guards. The unit has improved but it’s still surrendering 102.8 points per 100 possessions, the 12th best mark in the NBA. That’s not good enough.

Also, count me among those concerned about how the Raptors offense translates into the playoffs. Toronto relies on free throws and isolations (only five teams run isolation more frequently, via NBA.com) and they don’t have a lot of three-point shooting. That could make it hard to come by points come crunch time. Combine that style of play with a weak defense and you have a team unlikely to advance to the Finals.

 

MIAMI HEAT (37-27)

https://twitter.com/MiamiHEAT/status/706906500971810817

Why they can beat the Cavs: Because they have one of the league’s top defenses and they know how to get points in the half court. Out of all the non-Cleveland teams in the East, Miami has the highest ceiling. The issue for the Heat is health. Can Dwyane Wade make it through another playoff run? Can Chris Bosh return and regain his strength by the time the Cavs and the Heat face off?

If so, and if Hassan Whiteside continues to put on a good face and Wade and Dragic continue learning how to best play off one another Miami has everything you look for in a title contender. A stout defense. Veterans who can get their shots whenever they want and know what shots are worth taking. An energetic big man who can protect the rim and change the game. A great perimeter defender (rookie Justise Winslow). They have championship experience and talent. The Heat just needs everything to click at the right time.

Likelihood of beating the Cavs: If all that happens Miami can match Cleveland blow for blow. The Heat play a slow pace and would love to drag a series with the Cavs into the mud. They’d rotate Winslow and Luol Deng onto James. They’d attack Kyrie Irving with Goran Dragic and go at Kevin Love with Chris Bosh. Not only would this series be a great one from a storyline perspective — LeBron vs. the Heat! — but it could also go seven games and end with a Heat victory.

About Yaron Weitzman

Yaron Weitzman is a freelance writer based in New York whose work frequently appears on The Comeback, SB Nation and in SLAM Magazine. He's also been published on SB Nation Longform, The Cauldron, Tablet Magazine and in the Journal News. Yaron can be followed on Twitter @YaronWeitzman

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