The Kenny Payne era isn’t over yet, but you can see the end from here. Confidence in the direction of the University of Louisville basketball program has deflated to an all-time low. Last season’s anger has been replaced with this season’s indifference. That’s a problem for the school and city whose ecosystem revolves around a successful college basketball program.
The man who hired Payne, Louisville athletic director Josh Heird, did so with the highest of hopes in a move that was largely praised. The story sold itself: former Cardinal returns to restore his alma mater to glory. That plan worked great in football as Jeff Brohm immediately energized that program which enjoyed its best regular season in over a decade.
But with Payne, it has been an abject failure. Even the staunchest Payne supporter can’t ignore the evidence and is running out of excuses for him. He’s 9-35 with home losses to Bellarmine, Wright State, Appalachian State, Lipscomb, Chattanooga, and Arkansas State.
Payne, previously John Calipari’s top assistant at Kentucky, was supposed to bring some of that Calipari magic to Louisville. Instead, last week, he suffered a 95-76 beatdown to his mentor in front of a season-high KFC Yum! Center crowd of 17,293. Half of those in attendance were rooting for the visitors.
As the losses have mounted, so have the rumors. Some speculated that the Kentucky loss might be the death blow to Payne’s reign. However, Heird, in true holiday spirit, recently supported the embattled coach and his 5-7 team.
According to Eric Crawford of WDRB in Louisville, the athletic director said, “Kenny, and I have had a number of conversations throughout the last week, and Kenny is going to serve as our head coach as we move into the new year. And I’m going to do what I do with every one of our programs, which is evaluate what’s happening throughout the season.”
The reaction to that tepid endorsement was predictable.
Heird’s comments are interesting for two reasons. First, it seems unlikely that there will be a coaching change in the middle of the season. Second, he didn’t rule out making a move after the season. Makes sense. These situations tend to be fluid, and you don’t know what the hiring landscape will look like in the spring. Heird bet long on Payne, believing that the first-time head coach would grow into the role. Most experience challenges that often require patience from leadership and fans.
But when Heird sees Tommy Lloyd go 33-4 in his rookie season in 2021-22 at Arizona and Jerome Tang go 26-10 in his rookie season at Kansas State last year, he must be wondering what is going on with Payne. Perhaps Lloyd and Tang are outliers, but Louisville has a much more accomplished pedigree than Arizona and Kansas State.
Why isn’t that type of success happening here? The sole conclusion is that he hired the wrong guy.
Hiring the right guy is going to cost a lot of money. However, Louisville can’t afford to go on the cheap and gamble again on an unproven assistant. When the Denny Crum era was nearing its end, the university targeted Rick Pitino. And since firing Pitino in 2017, the program has been in a gradual state of decline.
Once a cash cow, Louisville’s program has seen attendance plummet and downtown businesses are feeling the effects. The only way to bring that back is with a brand-name coach. That likely means someone with at least a Final Four on his résumé. There has been speculation about guys like UCLA’s Mick Cronin and Baylor’s Scott Drew. Drew seems like a longshot and maybe Cronin is too to a lesser degree. But if you’re going to make an argument for one, Cronin makes sense.
Cronin was an assistant at Louisville under Pitino. He has had success as a head coach at Murray State, Cincinnati, and UCLA. He took the Bruins from the First Four to the 2021 Final Four. So, why would he leave Los Angeles? Valid question. As great as UCLA has historically been, L.A. is a pro sports town. Plus, with the Bruins (5-6) moving into the Big Ten next season, there is uncertainty about how this will affect the tradition-rich basketball program. Cronin is also a native of Cincinnati, which is only 100 miles from Louisville.
Louisville is a college basketball town. Full stop. A home-run hire will be required if Payne is indeed on his way out. Whether it’s Cronin, Drew, or someone else, there needs to be a seismic shift. If so, the ripple effects are going to be felt throughout the sport.
