Quarterback Desmond Ridder and running back Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
FeaturedNFLOriginalsBy Michael Grant on

The NFL’s worst division could be lousy again. That’s good news for the Atlanta Falcons.

Every NFC South team had a losing record last year, and every team will have a different season-opening starting quarterback this year. As atrocious as this looks, someone will emerge from this septic tank.

That someone might be the Falcons.

Atlanta could be this year’s version of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. Remember them? They went 13-4 despite being outscored 427 to 424. Those Vikings were a historically lucky team, pulling out unlikely victories such as stunning the Buffalo Bills 33-30 in overtime and staging the biggest comeback ever by rallying from 33-0 to shock the Indianapolis Colts 39-36 in OT.

Few believed in the Vikings, who went an NFL-record 11-0 in one-score games. So, it was fairly predictable that the luck would run out in the playoffs. Minnesota was upset at home 31-24 by the New York Giants in their postseason opener.

This year, Atlanta probably will not be as lucky as Minnesota. But on a smaller scale in a wide-open division, the Falcons could squeeze out enough close victories to win the NFC South in 2023.

“I don’t love them, but I could see them doing what the Vikings did, which is have a ton of one-score games break their way,” Pro Football Focus’ Brad Spielberger told The Comeback. “The defense should be dramatically improved. Still not the best by any means. I don’t think they’re very good, but if they win 10 or 11 games, they could be in the playoff picture.”

Last season, the Falcons (7-10) were a little unlucky. They went 5-8 in one-score games, including 4-4 in games decided by a field goal or less. This season, they could fare better in a feeble division. 

Every team in the NFC South has quarterback questions. The New Orleans Saints paid a lot of free-agent money to Derek Carr, who was benched by the Las Vegas Raiders. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are replacing the GOAT Tom Brady with the castoff Baker Mayfield. The Carolina Panthers will be breaking in No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young. And then there’s the Falcons, who are turning the keys over to unproven second-year man Desmond Ridder.

Ridder probably isn’t the long-term solution. However, with the young skill position talent around him, being something close to average might be good enough. Tight end Kyle Pitts, wide receiver Drake London, and tailback Bijan Robinson ooze raw talent. If they can stay healthy, the Falcons could be the most improved team in the league.

Pitts is a man to watch. After a season in which he became just the second rookie tight end to surpass 1,000 receiving yards (1,026), he slumped in 2022 due to injury. He missed seven games and was limited to 356 receiving yards. Assuming he returns to form, Pitts will be difficult to stop. He’s too fast for any linebacker or safety. And if you double-cover him, that leaves more opportunities for London (72 catches for 866 yards and four touchdowns), who impressed despite the Falcons’ quarterback issues.

But perhaps we’re focusing too much on the pass. Atlanta third-year coach Arthur Smith loves a good running game. He had one when he was the Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator with Derrick Henry. Last year, the Falcons were the second-best rushing team in the league (159.9 yards per game). And now, they’re adding Robinson, the top running back selected in the draft (No. 8 overall pick). With Tyler Allgeier (1,035 rushing yards) and Robinson, the Falcons might be able to maul their way to a division title.

The running game could also protect what has been a suspect defense. Atlanta spent a lot in free agency with splashy signings like safety Jessie Bates III and defensive end Calais Campbell. When you consider the mediocre quarterbacks that unit will be facing, the defense should be better. 

Playing in the NFC South gives Atlanta a fighting chance. By one metric, they face the second-easiest schedule in the league. Their toughest game might be a Week 4 trip to the Jacksonville Jaguars. With some luck, Atlanta could reach double-digit victories and win the division.

Just like last year’s Vikings. 

About Michael Grant

Born in Jamaica. Grew up in New York City. Lives in Louisville, Ky. Sports writer. Not related to Ulysses S. Grant, Anthony Grant, Amy Grant or Hugh Grant.

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