The Buffalo Bills have a subpar 5-5 record despite having what is statistically one of the best and most efficient offenses in the league. And as it turns out, there might be one very simple thing to blame for their struggles: bad luck.
As NFL analyst Computer Cowboy points out on social media, the Buffalo Bills have had a lot of bad turnover luck this season, starting with quarterback Josh Allen. Even though Allen has one of the worst interception rates in the league and leads the league in total interceptions, he actually ranks pretty high in terms of turnover-worthy plays.
“Josh Allen has the 9th-lowest turnover-worthy play rate out of 38 qualifying QBs (played at least 20% of team’s snaps). Josh Allen has a lower turnover-worthy play rate than Tua, Lamar, Mahomes, and Herbert,” Computer Cowboy said in a post on X, the social media website that was formerly known as Twitter.
More on bad luck: The Bills' offense has fumbled 8 times. They have lost 7 of those (!!) [all except the Cook fumble last night], for a 12.5% recovery rate.
League average is 49% recovery rate. The Steelers have an 83% recovery rate! (5 of 6) https://t.co/wLbfumg1Ni
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 14, 2023
The Bills have also been extremely unlucky when it comes to fumbles, losing the ball seven times out of their eight fumbles this year – well below the league-wide recovery rate.
“More on bad luck: The Bills’ offense has fumbled 8 times. They have lost 7 of those (!!) [all except the Cook fumble last night], for a 12.5% recovery rate. League average is 49% recovery rate. The Steelers have an 83% recovery rate! (5 of 6)” Computer Cowboy said in another post.
It’s pretty brutal news that helps explain the team’s struggles, and the NFL world had a lot to say about it on social media.
Allen ahead of Mahomes in another metric? Impossible. That metric is flawed and cannot account for Mahomes unique abilities. https://t.co/OwTVWdplwd
— Madison Parkhill (@MadisonParkhill) November 14, 2023
Lol at this point what is a turnover worthy play. I never understood this. If a QB leads the NFL in TOs every other year does he not have a high TO rate which equilateral to high TO plays? https://t.co/Z6SaX9A1kY
— ShrekGun (@kelvinklein_20) November 14, 2023
At what point though does bad luck meet bad execution? They lost a fumble botching a handoff.
— Mookie Alexander (@mookiealexander) November 14, 2023
I get it. Numbers say the thing is this. But all fumbles are not created equally. There is a reason Bills offense loses so many fumbles, and it’s back to the scheme and execution. Defenses are rarely caught off guard by this offense, and it’s easier to swarm/be in the right spot
— Sausage (@Learn2Think) November 14, 2023
So horrendous fumble luck, and interception luck.
— alex speer (@ineedsymbols) November 15, 2023
Has Allen just been unlucky his whole career?
— Chris Shelton (@CSheltonChron) November 14, 2023
Maybe the Bills’ luck will turn around in the near future.
