As a rule of thumb, if an NFL team goes into a Week 15 game at 5-8, it probably is either mathematically eliminated or has no realistic chance at a division title. At the very least, the 5-8 team really can’t afford a loss. Normally, that rule of thumb applies. But the Carolina Panthers went into Week 15 at 5-8 and controlled their own destiny in the division. They lost their game but amazingly, their standing in the division didn’t take a hit. In 2022, conventional wisdom doesn’t apply in the NFC South.
Carolina lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers. At the same time, two other NFC South teams — the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons — squared off. New Orleans won that game. So, entering the late-afternoon window, the Panthers, Saints and Falcons all sat at 5-9. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a chance to open up a two-game lead with three to play with a home game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
For a while, things looked good. Tampa led 17-0 in the second quarter and 17-3 at halftime. Then, the third quarter happened. The Buccaneers opened the half with what appeared to be a three-and-out. Only, instead of punting, they tried a fake. The play set up well for Tampa down the field. But Giovani Bernard, the Tampa player who was supposed to take the snap, didn’t seem to know a fake was coming.
Pro tip. If you're going to try a fake punt, the guy who's supposed to take the snap needs to be in on the plan. pic.twitter.com/ubRbaZYwo8
— The Comeback (@thecomeback) December 18, 2022
That was just the start. Tampa turned the ball over three times in the third quarter.
"This is the Buccaneers in a nutshell this year."
No lies detected. That's 3 turnovers and a turnover on downs for Tampa in the third quarter alone. pic.twitter.com/xSJnzdAxHE
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) December 18, 2022
The Bengals took full advantage, turning a 17-3 halftime deficit into a 27-17 lead early in the fourth quarter.
Tom Brady threw one more interception early in the fourth quarter. Both teams added a score later in the game and Cincinnati ended up on the right end of a 34-23 final.
And with that, the NFC South standings looked worse at the end of the day than they did at the start.
Up to the minute NFC South standings, following Tampa's implosion on Sunday. This division is…something else. pic.twitter.com/jT53TRZWZ5
— The Comeback (@thecomeback) December 19, 2022
For comparison’s sake, the AFC East has no teams with a losing record and all four teams have a positive point differential. And while the Washington Commanders and New York Giants both entered Sunday night’s game with a negative point differential, all four NFC East teams will have a winning record entering Week 16.
The NFC South, meanwhile, has no teams with a winning record or positive point differential. Atlanta who, while tied for second, is also in last place, has the division’s best point differential — at -27. Collectively, the division is 21-35 with a -135 point differential.
It’s a terrible division, which was not lost on the NFL world on Sunday night.
The NFC South is in SHAMBLES
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) December 19, 2022
NFC South point differentials are laughable considering anyone of them can win the division at this point.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-8 (-41)
Carolina Panthers 5-6 (-38)
New Orleans Saints 5-9 (-29)
Atlanta Falcons 5-9 (-27)— Raheem Palmer (@iamrahstradamus) December 19, 2022
Yes, but I think this computer was set to “what normal teams are expected to do” settings instead of “2022 NFC South” mode. https://t.co/dDwSBFkuM4
— Mike Triplett (@MikeTriplett) December 19, 2022
The NFC South stinks. As a result, the Panthers still control their playoff fate at 5-9.
— Joe Person (@josephperson) December 19, 2022
The 2022 NFC South is like Haley’s Comet if Haley’s Comet was a burning pile of trash. We only get it once every 75 years. I love it so much you guys
— Ralph Malbrough 🥃 (@SaintsForecast) December 18, 2022
While the division has struggled, whichever team wins the division will not only make the postseason but host a playoff game on Wild Card Weekend. And historically speaking, that team will have a decent chance. Not counting the 1982 season (which, due to a strike, was only nine games long and had an expanded postseason), three teams have made the playoffs with a losing record. All were division champions.
The Seattle Seahawks won the NFC West at 7-9 in 2010, the Panthers won the NFC South at 7-8-1 in 2014 and the Washington Football Team (now Commanders) won the NFC East at 7-9 in 2020. Washington lost its first round playoff game, falling 31-23 to the Buccaneers. Seattle and Carolina, though, both won. The Seahawks beat the Saints 41-36 while the Panthers beat the Arizona Cardinals 27-16. Both teams had double-digit losses in the divisional round.
So, who will win? Things would seem to favor Tampa. In addition to having the one-game lead, the Bucs have a road game against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16, will host Carolina in Week 17 and finish on the road in Atlanta in Week 18. The Panthers, Saints and Falcons all have a game against a playoff contender outside of the division.
But while things look to favor the Buccaneers now, as we already learned, conventional wisdom doesn’t apply in this division.
