Last October, when the Cubs and Dodgers met in the NLCS, Los Angeles jumped to a 2-1 series lead before Chicago stormed back to win three straight and reach the World Series. But both teams are different now, and the Dodgers are out for revenge.
The Cubs arrive fresh off a dramatic five-game victory over the Washington Nationals in the NLDS. The Dodgers, meanwhile, swept the Diamondbacks in the NLDS and have now won nine of their last 10 games. But just when everything appeared right in Los Angeles, the Dodgers received some bad news: Star shortstop Corey Seager’s nagging back injury will prevent him from playing in the NLCS.
So with Seager out and the Cubs worn down from an exhausting opening-round series, who can we expect to earn a berth in the World Series? Let’s break it down.
When the Cubs are at bat
The Cubs scored the fourth most runs in baseball this season, but a closer look reveals that their offense took a slight step back in 2017. Chicago ranked sixth in baseball in OPS, fifth in wOBA and eighth in wRC+. Those figures make the Cubs a solid hitting team but not an elite one.
Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are studs, and Willson Contreras emerged in 2017, but after those three, Joe Maddon is forced to cobble together platoons from a collection of flawed hitters. The Cubs have a lot of options, but none is exactly ideal, especially in the postseason when starting pitchers get pulled early and the righty-heavy lineup that starts against the Dodgers’ lefty starters will have to face right-handed relievers from the fifth inning on.
.@Addison_Russell turned that clutch factor all the way up. #NLDS pic.twitter.com/Nj2iQp6VQI
— MLB (@MLB) October 13, 2017
The Dodgers’ pitchers are fully rested after a quick sweep of the Diamondbacks, which means Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Darvish and Alex Wood have no excuse not to be at their best. Just as importantly, L.A.’s bullpen is fresh. The Dodgers’ relief corps had an up-and-down season, but with starter Kenta Maeda serving as a bridge to the best closer in baseball, Kenley Jansen, the ‘pen should be just fine.
When the Dodgers are at bat
The biggest question mark in this series is the Cubs’ rotation. All four Chicago starters pitched in either Game 4 or Game 5 against the Nationals, leaving Jose Quintana to start Game 1 of the NLCS on just one full day of rest. Whoever pitches Game 2 figures to be short of his best, as well. That means the Cubs’ over-worked bullpen could be extremely busy early in this series.
The Dodgers posted the best wRC+ in the National League in the regular season and boast four of the league’s top 20 hitters in that category. Then again, one of those stars, Seager, won’t suit up, while another, Chris Taylor, is mired in an extended slump that makes his surprising breakout look like a fluke. Like the Cubs, the Dodgers are left with a couple top sluggers (Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger) and a crew of role players who will need to step up.
BOOM. Justin Turner SMASHES a 3-run homer giving the @Dodgers the early lead. pic.twitter.com/V3XP3voMnE
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 7, 2017
But given the state of the Cubs’ pitching, the Dodgers will have a sizable edge until and unless Maddon’s staff can catch its breath. If Quintana and/or the to-be-determined Game 2 starter fails to pitch deep into the game, the aftershocks could last all series, paving the way for Los Angeles to score a lot of runs.
Outlook
Until Saturday morning, the Dodgers looked like a clear favorite, with a roster that appeared deeper, stronger and better-rested than the Cubs’. Seager’s absence forces us to at least reconsider the matchup.
But at the end of the day, this is baseball, and one player simply doesn’t make an enormous difference in a short series. If this matchup were a toss-up, maybe the Dodgers’ new hole at shortstop would swing the pick to Chicago. But with Los Angeles poised to enjoy the pitching advantage in at least five of the seven games, the Dodgers are still the pick here. With the caveat that anything can happen in a seven-game baseball series, we’re going with Los Angeles in 5.
