The Washington Nationals (16-8) currently have the best record in the National League, and have been arguably the best offense in baseball this season. However, the Nationals received some very rough news on Saturday, as it’s been reported that star outfielder Adam Eaton suffered a torn ACL and is done for the season.
Sources: #Nationals’ Eaton has torn ACL, out for year.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) April 29, 2017
Confirming what @Ken_Rosenthal said: Adam Eaton has a torn ACL. He is done for the season.
— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) April 29, 2017
The play occurred in the Nationals’ game on Friday night against the New York Mets, when Eaton hustled to beat out a groundball in the infield for a single:
Eaton may not be a household name to fans, but he’s certainly known as a star across the major leagues. The 28-year-old was worth 6.0 wins above replacement (per FanGraphs) last season for the Chicago White Sox, good for the 11th-best WAR among MLB position players. It’s why the Nationals paid a very steep price to acquire him from the White Sox over the offseason.
Eaton was primarily batting leadoff for the Nationals, where his .393 on-base percentage (.358 career) made him a perfect fit in front of Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, and Daniel Murphy.
26-year-old outfielder Michael Taylor is expected to replace Eaton as the regular center fielder. Taylor should be able to be a fine replacement defensively, but it’s a big drop-off with the bat, as Taylor has a career slash line of just .224/.277/.356.
Nationals plan is to use Michael A. Taylor in center with Eaton gone, according to person familiar. He gets another extended chance.
— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) April 29, 2017
And just like that, the formerly near-flawless Nationals have Michael A. Taylor as their starting center fielder.https://t.co/h6arlcbz7l
— Alex Putterman (@AlexPutterman) April 29, 2017
Stats also say Taylor is a good outfielder. His career dWAR of 0.2 boosts his total career WAR to a robust -0.5.https://t.co/QyQbQNiQoi
— Alex Putterman (@AlexPutterman) April 30, 2017
Trea Turner will now be the Nationals’ leadoff man, and should do a solid job there with good on-base skills, as well as the ability to steal bases. But the lineup is certainly much more dangerous when Turner and Eaton are at the top in front of Harper and company.
This is definitely a huge loss for the Nationals, one that could ultimately knock them down a few wins. FanGraphs’ projections have already dropped Washington from 95.2 wins (was tied with the Cubs for highest projection) to 93.4 wins since the report of a torn ACL came out. That may even be a conservative drop as well, given that they only projected Eaton to be a 3-WAR player after he was just a 6-WAR player last year.
Crushing for the #Nationals. At least a four-win gap between Eaton and Taylor. Enormous effect on lineup flow.
— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) April 29, 2017
Even with the loss of Eaton, the Nationals are still a loaded team and the clear favorites to win the NL East. FanGraphs projects the Mets to finish in second place with 84 wins (and Five Thirty-Eight has the Mets at only 82 wins), and none of the other NL East teams appear to be real threats.
But the Nationals appeared to be right there with the Cubs and Dodgers for the best team in the National League, and it will be much more difficult for them to be at that level now. Of course, all that really matters is getting into the playoffs and taking your chances there, and the Nationals should still be in good shape to get that opportunity.
As for the Nationals’ investment in Eaton, the good news is that he isn’t a rental. Eaton is cheaply under team control through 2021. It’s of course anyone’s guess if Eaton will be the same athlete following a serious knee injury, and athleticism is a crucial part of his game. But we’ve seen plenty of recent examples of baseball players returning to the same level following ACL injuries (Kyle Schwarber, Marcus Stroman, etc), and hopefully we’ll see that with Eaton.
