The AFC Championship Game is now official, as the Kansas City Chiefs were able to defeat the Buffalo Bills to advance to the AFC showcase against the Baltimore Ravens.
It’s an intriguing matchup on paper with two of the best quarterbacks in all of football facing off in Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.
Thus far, Mahomes has often gotten the better of Jackson in their four head-to-head matchups, with a 3-1 record over Jackson. That being said, the Ravens have been far and away the most consistent team in the AFC all season long, aided by veteran head coach Jim Harbaugh who has a proven track record in the postseason.
This matchup is expected to be a close one. FanDuel Sportsbook has the Ravens as the early 3.5 point favorites in the matchup, which is lined far closer on paper than the NFC Championship Game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Detroit Lions where the 49ers are seven-point favorites.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at four keys to victory in this game, two from each side, that could be the determining factor for both teams to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.
Kansas City Chiefs:
Contain Lamar Jackson in the pocket
This is a task that is clearly easier said than done for the Chiefs’ defense against a quarterback as dynamic as Jackson. But Jackson’s dual-threat ability completely opens up a different aspect to the Ravens offense that is crucial to their success.
Jackson has progressed far past the narrative of being solely a scrambling quarterback. But it is hard to deny that he does his best work when he can improvise outside of the pocket, whether that be as a runner or as a passer.
The Chiefs defense had its fair share of struggles containing Josh Allen as a runner on Sunday, allowing him to rush for 72 yards and two touchdowns.
Allowing someone like Jackson, potentially an even more dynamic rusher, to put up similar production on the ground could be a recipe for disaster for the Chiefs.
Have a third receiving option step up
The Chiefs receiving corps has fought through some significant struggles this year as a whole. It may not even be a stretch to call the entire receiving corps outside of Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce a complete disaster for much of the year.
To beat a team like the Ravens with an elite defense that will scheme up a game plan to take away your best receiving options, you need to have some other options make some big plays.
The likes of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, and Mecole Hardman will be the ones tasked to take some of the attention away from Rice and Kelce.
If they are unable to do so, it could be a hard night for Patrick Mahomes under center up against a fierce Ravens defense that forced a league-high 31 turnovers in the regular season.
Baltimore Ravens:
Limit the Chiefs rushing attack
Chiefs teams of the past have been almost reliant on Patrick Mahomes and his pass-catchers to make dynamic plays to move the ball. That has not been the case this season, as the Chiefs offense has seemingly found a massive weapon in Isiah Pacheco.
Including the postseason, the stats pretty clearly point towards Pacheco actually being the driving force of the Chiefs offense.
In games where Pacheco has rushed for over 40 yards, the Chiefs have a 10-2 record this year. When he has not, the Chiefs have just a 1-3 record.
As I mentioned, the Chiefs pass catchers have been far from consistent this year. Forcing some of them to step up by stopping the run would go a long way to shutting down the Chiefs offense entirely.
Establish the ground game offensively
The Chiefs’ defense has largely been dominant this season in several different facets. But if there is a weaker point of their defense, it is through the running game.
The Chiefs’ defense finished with just the 18th best-rushing defense in terms of rushing yards per game in the regular season. Meanwhile, the Ravens had the best rushing attack in the regular season, averaging 156.5 yards per game on the ground.
Not only will a solid rushing game for the Ravens also open up the passing game, but it will also keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines, which is always essential when you are facing the Chiefs.
