Bill Belichick and Gregg Popovich are arguably the greatest coaches in their respective sports. These septuagenarians have built Hall of Fame résumés by being smarter than the guy on the opposite sideline. They have earned that trust and respect by winning several titles in a salary-cap era.
But sometimes intelligence isn’t enough. You can’t always scheme your way to victory. As Belichick and Popovich enter the final quarters of their careers, that’s becoming more and more apparent. Belichick, a six-time Super Bowl champion, hasn’t won a playoff game since Tom Brady left the New England Patriots. Popovich, a five-time NBA champion, hasn’t won a playoff series since Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard departed.
It’s also a humbling reminder of the limitations of being a coaching genius.
"Obviously as a team, we can't win turning the ball over three times in a game, two for touchdowns."
— NBC Sports Boston (@NBCSBoston) October 2, 2023
Bill Belichick talks Mac Jones' decision-making vs. Cowboys pic.twitter.com/9JKYlU83y3
Coaches get the credit for winning and the blame for losing. It’s the nature of the job. The buck stops with you when you’re making millions of dollars to give your team the best chance of victory. But coaches are human beings not wizards. They cannot magically conjure up a strategy that will guarantee success. All they can try to do is tilt the odds in their favor.
Last weekend, Belichick suffered a 38-3 beatdown at the Dallas Cowboys for the worst defeat of his 29-year coaching career. The look of despair on his face told you everything.
The Patriots just lost 38-3 in Dallas. The worst loss in Bill Belichick’s 29 year head coaching career.
— Boston Sports Gordo (@BOSSportsGordo) October 1, 2023
There will be plenty of discussion in New England about whether Belichick’s job is on the line.
pic.twitter.com/FRhneeBbEZ
The Cowboys didn’t even play all that great on offense and still rolled. And it could get worse before it gets better. New England’s defense will be without promising rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez (torn labrum) for the rest of the year, and pass rusher Matthew Judon (biceps injury) is out indefinitely.
Belichick can mask some weaknesses with Xs and Os. It seems unlikely, however, that his brain can overcome crippling injuries to his defense and an offense that has struggled under quarterback Mac Jones. The Patriots (1-3) have lost to some of the best teams in the league: the Philadelphia Eagles, the Miami Dolphins, and the Cowboys. The schedule gets a little easier, but New England looks like a bad team.
This is a situation that Belichick can’t coach himself out of.
As pessimistic as things look in New England, San Antonio has one big reason for optimism. The Spurs have been so terrible lately that they won the draft lottery and selected Victor Wembanyama. The 7-foot-4 forward is the most heralded prospect to enter the league since LeBron James in 2003.
But Wembanyama is 19, and Popovich is the league’s oldest coach at 74. Will Popovich be still be on the bench by the time the Spurs are back to being contenders? It’s a reasonable question to ask someone nearing retirement.
This is not how Popovich planned to planned to spend his final years. The original strategy was to let Leonard lead the post-Duncan Spurs. However, the infamous falling out between Leonard and San Antonio changed the fates of two teams. After trading Leonard to the Toronto Raptors in the summer of 2018, the Canadian franchise won the NBA championship immediately. San Antonio hasn’t been a serious threat to win it all since.
As brilliant as Popovich is, the Spurs have regressed over the past three years, bottoming out at 22-60 last season. It was the worst record ever for Popovich, who this past summer was inducted into the Hall of Fame. You could argue that the organization was tanking for a shot at Wembanyama. Still, four straight losing seasons prove that Popovich can’t overcome a poor roster.
Popovich is the NBA’s all-time leader in coaching victories with 1,364. Belichick (299 wins) may someday surpass Don Shula’s all-time NFL mark of 328. Two smart people. But intelligence can only go so far without elite players.
