Two American League East teams have been busy the last week or so. The Boston Red Sox have signed infielder Eduardo Nunez and outfielder J.D. Martinez, filling key holes on a roster that won 93 games and a division title. The Tampa Bay Rays, meanwhile, went in a different direction, dealing away starter Jake Odorizzi, then designating All-Star Corey Dickerson for assignment after adding the uninspiring C.J. Cron.
Considered together, these moves suggest a period of relative parity in the AL East has come to an end. After a few years of the Rays, Orioles and Blue Jays keeping pace with the powerhouse Yankees and Red Sox, the division seems to have returned to its mid-2000s status quo, with New York and Boston towering over the other three teams.
The trend toward renewed Yanks-Sox dominance began in 2017, when the two deep-pocketed teams ran away from the rest of the division over the season’s final months, but it has accelerated this offseason. Here’s what the five AL East teams have been up to since November:
- Yankees — Traded for reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, re-signed CC Sabathia
- Red Sox — Signed Martinez and Nuñez, re-signed Mitch Moreland
- Blue Jays — Acquired Aledmys Diaz, Yangervis Solarte, Randal Grichuk, Curtis Granderson, who combined for only 3.0 WAR in 2017
- Orioles — Considered trading Manny Machado, signed Andrew Cashner, re-signed Chris Tillman
- Rays — Traded away Evan Longoria and Odorizzi, let Logan Morrison leave (probably), DFA’d Dickerson, added Cron
It’s tough to see that list of moves and not remember how things were last decade, when the Red Sox and Yankees added pieces each offseason in an endless arms race, while the Blue Jays and Orioles tried futilely to keep up and the Rays barely bothered to try. From 1998-2005, the Yankees and Red Sox finished first and second in the AL East every year. The same happened in 2007 and 2009 as well. It wasn’t until 2012 that either franchise finished below .500 or worse than third place.
Over the past six seasons, the script has flipped a bit, with four of the AL East’s five franchises claiming a division title, and all five winning 90 games at least once. But now the old balance of power seems to have returned, with 60 percent of the East apparently deciding that a serious run at the 2018 postseason isn’t worth the trouble. The Yankees have one of the AL’s best rosters, with All-Star veterans complementing young superstars and a cadre of worthy reinforcements waiting in Scranton. The Red Sox return most of the team that has won two straight divisional crowns, with Martinez adding to the stockpile of talent. And in the “have-not” category, the Blue Jays are attempting to squeeze another decent year out of an aging core, the Orioles are delaying an inevitable rebuild, and the Rays are breaking down a roster that didn’t necessarily require such an overhaul. The bifurcated AL East is officially back.
FanGraphs currently projects 94 wins for the Red Sox and 89 for the Yankees, followed by a generous 85 for the Blue Jays, 80 for the Rays and 74 for the Orioles. If anyone other the New York and Boston sneaks into the top two, it will be one of the season’s biggest upsets. Just like old times.
