Week 5 of the college football season had another dose of drama for you to soak in from start to finish. From Clemson avoiding an upset alert at home against Syracuse to Ohio State’s fourth-quarter rally for a second-straight one-point win against Penn State in as many years, Saturday’s action helped shape the college football season’s outlook just a little more.
Week 5 closed the book on the first full month of the college football season and now October begins. This is the month when the college football season really hits its stride. The fall air is crisp and in its prime. Conference games raise the stakes with each passing week. Contenders begin to separate themselves a little bit more, while the pressure for some teams simply to meet bowl eligibility will begin coming into the picture. You can argue that the month of October is the best month for college football, or you can choose to love each month equally like you do your children (but you can admit it, you probably have a favorite too, right?).
The first month of the season may have already taken care of some serious business in the grand scheme of things as far as contenders and pretenders are concerned, but this is the perfect opportunity to remind you that as much as you think we’ve learned about this season, it could all change on any fall Saturday in October.
New redshirt rule is having an unexpected impact
A week ago, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney named Trevor Lawrence the team’s starting quarterback, thus relegating Kelly Bryant to a backup role he chose not to hold. Bryant announced his transfer from the program and promptly left the team behind. As discussed last week, expect for this to become the new norm in college football so long as the new redshirt rule is in play as it currently is constructed. As expected, the new rule leading to players announcing transfers after four games in the middle of the season is causing some concern from coaches.
Among those coaches, of course, is Alabama head coach Nick Saban. Saban has said he’s not going to worry about how the redshirt rule is used when running his team. This partly explains why Jalen Hurts appeared in his fifth game of the season, thus burning his year of eligibility no matter what happens the rest of the season. After the game, Saban addressed that decision to play Hurts in another blowout of an overmatched opponent that had no need to utilize Hurts in a backup role. Saban expressed his concern for the rule and doesn’t like how players can now just pack up and leave in the middle of the season.
Does he have a point? He absolutely does, as hypocritical as it may sound coming from a multi-millionaire head coach who could (and has) just as easily packed his bags and leave for another job if he wanted (no, Saban’s not going anywhere, but we know coaches do this every year). Saban, like ESPN broadcaster Todd Blackledge, suggested a player would be selfish to leave his teammates hanging in the middle of the year. The optics absolutely look bad, but we also have to keep in mind these players aren’t being paid and should have the right to make the decisions they feel is best for them.
Like so many things in college football, there may be no perfect solution to this situation. But as more players make similar decisions for their own good, expect this conversation to continue to spread. It will be one worth having as we continue to see the impact the rule ultimately has on the game.
Seven unbeaten go down
Week 5 started off with 21 undefeated FBS teams remaining, and seven teams failed to survive the weekend without taking their first loss of the year. With a handful of matchups between undefeated teams, we were guaranteed to have a few teams go down, but seven was perhaps more than anticipated.
The teams falling from the ranks of the unbeaten were Buffalo, California, Duke, North Texas, Penn State, Stanford, and Syracuse. It’s still too early to start comparing the one-loss teams against each other because we’re still guaranteed at least seven more undefeated teams are going to lose this season at the bare minimum, but it’s a fun conversation to have.
Penn State may be the best one-loss team in the country, but they have no good wins to show for themselves at this time unless you give Appalachian State credit. Washington picked up a win against a (previously) ranked BYU but the Huskies also lost a close battle against another one-loss team, Auburn, who lost on a game-winning field goal by LSU. Both Michigan and Stanford lost to Notre Dame, but at least the Wolverines kept things close. Miami has been on a roll since losing to LSU, but whom have they played?
At the end of the season, there can be no more than seven undefeated teams, although odds are there will be fewer left standing. Here’s the breakdown for the possible undefeated teams at the end of the season:
- SEC champion (Alabama/LSU/Georgia/Kentucky)
- Clemson or NC State
- Oklahoma or West Virginia
- Ohio State
- UCF/USF/Cincinnati
- Colorado
- Notre Dame
Insert tire fire jokes here
https://twitter.com/jabbanojedi/status/1046407292441235456
Group of Five: Things are looking great for the AAC
As noted above, the only three undefeated teams in the Group of Five all reside in the American Athletic Conference. Even more, all three play in the same division. UCF, South Florida, and Cincinnati are the only three Group of Five programs without a loss, but at least two of them are going to have to suffer a loss this season because they each play each other in division play later this season. That will either give the AAC a boost into the New Year’s Six or poses the biggest threat to being represented in the big bowl lineup for a second straight year.
Early on, UCF looks to clearly be the team everyone is chasing, but what happens if the Knights do lose a game somewhere along the way? It may depend on who they lose to, because a loss to either Cincinnati or South Florida could eliminate UCF from contention completely, as only Group of Five conference champions are eligible for consideration by the selection committee.
The AAC would still likely be in a decent position if it has Cincinnati or South Florida running the table, but what if the Bearcats, Bulls, and Knights all defeat each other? What if Houston is the team that wins the AAC, with one loss? Does the AAC still stand tall above a threat like a one-loss Boise State? That would still be entirely possible given overall body of work.
For starters, the AAC appears to be a stronger overall conference than the Mountain West Conference (and all other Group of Five conferences), even though there have been a few poor losses. But the AAC also has a handful of wins against power conference opponents from the ACC, Big Ten, and the Pac-12. Those wins sure help give the conference a boost. At least, it should. A one-loss Boise State is still a potential problem, but a one-loss AAC champ should still have a very solid case to be made at the end of the year.
Naturally, an undefeated AAC champ has no competition to be concerned with.
Here’s how I would currently rank the Group of Five contenders in the hunt for a spot in the New Year’s Six. I tend to sort this ranking with a blend of ranking the best teams but also giving some weight to the conference I feel has the best chance to be represented. I also try to consider national reputation, as I do feel that comes into play to some degree, whether that’s fair or not.
- UCF
- South Florida
- Boise State
- Cincinnati
- Fresno State
My Top Four
We’re getting closer and closer to having to seriously discuss the annoying weekly College Football Playoff rankings. It’s all a part of the deal, so we’ll deal with it. There’s still a month of games to play before having to really dig in for this tedious process, but the first month of the season sure seemed to show we have a handful of top playoff contenders ready to make their runs, and a batch of secondary teams still worthy of being on the same radar just waiting for a crack to open.
The top contenders are easy to pick out. It’s Alabama followed by Ohio State, Georgia, and Oklahoma. Clemson is there too, although we’ll see if this quarterback situation is a serious threat to the Tigers or not. For now, they are absolutely in the mix.
The secondary threats include LSU, West Virginia and Notre Dame, all three undefeated, and some of the top one-loss teams in the country; Penn State, Auburn, Washington. Other one-loss teams will have their opportunities to join that discussion, but for now, that’s pretty much what we’re looking at.
My top four as of this very moment, based solely on all games played up to this point, looks like this:
- Ohio State
- LSU
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
Relax Georgia fans, I know your team is one of the best in the country. I’m just assessing the overall body of work to this point in the season, and the quality wins just aren’t there for Alabama yet the way they are for these teams in my mind. Ohio State and LSU each have scored wins away from home against ranked opponents with one neutral field win in Arlington (Ohio State over TCU and LSU over Miami) and in division play against a top-10 opponent in a hostile environment (LSU at Auburn and Ohio State at Penn State). Not many teams have that to show for themselves this early on. Notre Dame also has two wins against ranked opponents (Stanford and Michigan), but those have come at home. But they are two better wins than any other team in the running right now in my (Ian B)ook. But if I have to choose between Alabama and Georgia, I’m going to go with the Crimson Tide. Oklahoma and Clemson are next in line behind Georgia.
As I do every week, I also want to provide my updated College Football Playoff projection. In this, I take into account all of the events that have occurred up to this point in time and mix in how I see the rest of the season playing out from there. The way things are going, I still don’t see much reason to change my playoff outlook at this time, but I do believe we’re getting to the prime time for these projections to either hold firm or change drastically as conference play hits its stride.
My latest projection sees the same four teams I have been including in my projection, although I’m flipping my second and third team (and really, the order of these two really just determines who gets to wear home and away uniforms and who calls the coin flip for the game).
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Clemson
- Oklahoma
At the end of the month, we’ll start getting our regularly updated College Football Playoff selection committee rankings. Once we start getting our first taste for how the selection committee is evaluating the season and can compare that to the other rankings out there, I’ll be able to try making this projection a tad more accurate. For now, this is just how I would project everything if I were making the decision.
On tap for Week 6
Arkansas vs. Alabama – Please be gentle with the Razorbacks, Alabama. It’s been a rough year already.
Oklahoma vs. Texas – With the Longhorns on a bit of a roll, Texas will have their biggest measuring stick game here. Can Texas drop rival Oklahoma at the state fair?
NC State vs. Boston College – The Wolfpack are one of two undefeated teams left in the ACC. Can they stop AJ Dillon and BC?
Wake Forest vs. Clemson – The status of Trevor Lawrence is in question at the start of the week, but Tigers should manage to avoid an upset in Winston-Salem, right?
Florida vs. LSU – LSU is 2-0 away from home against ranked opponents this season. Expect some good defense.
Miami vs. Florida State – Turnover chains or backpacks? Big opportunity for Miami.
Texas A&M vs. Kentucky – Wildcats have held all of their opponents to 20 points or fewer. Can they keep that defensive mojo going in College Station and creep into the top-10?
Mississippi State vs. Auburn – Bulldogs are trending in the wrong direction, but can they score an upset of Auburn at home?
UCLA vs. Washington – Remember when I suggested Chip Kelly was staring at a 0-5 record a few weeks ago?
Wisconsin vs. Nebraska – The odds don’t look great for the Huskers to get their first win under Scott Frost either.
Virginia Tech vs. Notre Dame – Bud Foster’s defense has their work cut out for them against a rejuvenated Irish offense.
Stanford vs. Utah – Cardinal took a tough blow in South Bend, but can improve to 3-0 in conference play.
