Not even Herschel Walker’s biggest supporters would claim he has run a smooth or textbook campaign for the U.S. Senate.
The former NFL and Georgia Bulldogs star’s campaign against incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock to represent Georgia has stumbled into one mistake and controversy after another. Two women accused the pro-life Walker of paying for their abortions. Walker denied the accusations. He’s made bizarre statements, proposed strange ideas, and most recently found himself defending his involvement in what critics labeled a tax scam.
Yet the Republican Walker won 48.5% of the vote in the general election, forcing a special runoff election because his Democratic opponent did not get 50% of the vote.
The most recent polls show that Walker and Warnock are in a dead heat heading into the Dec. 6 runoff election (early voting is already underway).
So despite all his problems and controversies, Walker is still very much in position to win. In fact, a report from The New York Times reveals several political intangibles that greatly favor Walker and seem to give him an advantage.
First, the Times notes that Walker finished less than 40,000 votes behind Warnock in the general election. The Libertarian candidate for Senate, Chase Oliver, picked up 81,000 votes. Libertarian voters usually tend to come down on the conservative side when forced to vote “R” or “D.” The report further notes that Oliver received about 50,000 more votes than the Libertarian gubernatorial candidate, “suggesting that he was a sponge for conservatives who could not stomach Walker.” How many of those voters will vote in the runoff? And will they choose Walker?
Another factor favoring Walker could be a shortened period for early voting. Democrats excel at getting the vote out early, but the shortened window of less than a month leading up to the runoff election will reduce the early voting impact.
Warnock benefited greatly from a large Black voter turnout when he won his Senate seat in 2021. However, the Times notes that Black turnout in the general election hit its lowest level since 2006, and there’s no reason to believe things will pick up for the runoff election.
Another group favoring Warnock, young voters, turned out in historic numbers in the general election. However, this group is historically prone to sit out runoff elections, and the Times notes, “Many of the younger voters who showed up for Warnock during the midterms … might not bother to vote, now that the perceived stakes are lower.
At the same time, older voters are more likely to vote in runoff elections, and a recent AARP poll shows that while Warnock had a strong lead among young voters, he trailed by nine points among the 50-plus voters. The poll estimated those voters will make up 62% of voters in the runoff.
Although the above intangibles all seem to favor Walker, he doesn’t need to print any “Herschel Walker, U.S. Senator” business cards yet. The report also included a “The Case for Warnock” section, noting, “Under this theory, the runoff is Warnock’s to lose.”
